Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
333 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Afternoon, diurnally driven, convection a bit "stunted" so far this
afternoon across the forecast area. 12Z sounding showed ample
moisture and a similar CAPE profile to yesterday. Weak short wave/
mid-level circulation over southeastern Alabama in the base of the
stationary upper trough seems to be concentrating the better
convection to the west of the forecast area. Still expect at least
scattered coverage of convection through the afternoon into the
early evening, especially across the west and north. Weak mid-level
lapse rates should keep chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
fairly limited. Upper trough axis sharpens up a bit over the region
Sunday and we should see better coverage of convection. Lapse rates
are forecast to be a little steeper, but moderate instability at
best and no strong upper forcing should keep severe risk limited
once again. Temperatures remain seasonable.

20

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Relatively wet/active pattern will continue for at least one more
day (Monday), but it does appear that the persistent upper
"troughiness" that's been over the region for days will give way to
more of a "northwest flow" pattern as we head through the work week.

Longwave trough axis expected to finally sweep across the area
Monday which will support higher POPs, especially across the
southern and eastern counties of our area (basically along and
south/east of I-85). Should see some drying / lower chances for
convection Tuesday behind this wave, but NW flow brings a piece of
energy down across the area Wednesday. Additional upper level
disturbances could affect the area Thursday through Saturday,
maintaining at least "chance" (30-50%) POPs across the area.

Temperatures through the week will be warm but hover around normal
for early August.

DJN.83

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

VFR conditions expected across the forecast area through 06Z,
outside of scattered convection. Will see areas of MVFR or lower
conditions developing 06Z through 14Z, however impacts at the TAF
sites will be highly dependent on where the heavier precipitation
occurs into this evening. Conditions improving to VFR areawide by 16-
18Z. East winds 4-8kt become more northeast to north and diminish
after 00Z then northwest by 10-12Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Medium to high all elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  87  70  87 /  40  60  50  50
Atlanta         73  85  72  87 /  40  70  50  40
Blairsville     62  79  64  81 /  40  60  40  50
Cartersville    69  86  70  88 /  40  70  40  40
Columbus        72  90  72  89 /  40  60  50  50
Gainesville     70  85  70  86 /  40  60  40  40
Macon           71  88  71  89 /  30  60  60  50
Rome            69  88  70  89 /  40  60  40  40
Peachtree City  70  87  70  88 /  40  60  50  40
Vidalia         72  90  73  92 /  30  50  50  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1202 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1202 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across north and
central Georgia. A few storms may become strong to severe with gusty
winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Thunderstorms are expected
to diminish after sunset this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day. A few
storms could become strong to severe with gusty winds, heavy rain,
and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
557 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ043-032230-
Douglas GA-
557 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM
EDT...

At 557 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Winston, or near
Douglasville. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Douglasville, Villa Rica, Winston, Lake Val-Do-Mar, Chapel Hill, Bill
Arp and Fairplay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3373 8490 3378 8490 3377 8488 3377 8485
      3379 8476 3379 8473 3381 8472 3381 8469
      3369 8466 3361 8485 3367 8491 3373 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 155DEG 3KT 3372 8479

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
609 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ006-032245-
Fannin GA-
609 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FANNIN COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Blue Ridge. This storm
was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Blue Ridge, Morganton, Mineral Bluff, Jones Mill, Higdon, Colwell,
Loving and Epworth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3482 8419 3478 8430 3480 8431 3481 8433
      3482 8433 3483 8436 3484 8437 3484 8440
      3486 8442 3486 8448 3491 8453 3499 8429
      3499 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 157DEG 2KT 3486 8433

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
622 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ037-038-032245-
Oglethorpe GA-Oconee GA-
622 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OGLETHORPE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 622 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Barnett Shoals, or 8
miles southeast of Watkinsville...moving northwest at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Watkinsville, North High Shoals, Bishop, Maxeys, Dunlap, Barnett
Shoals and Farmington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3374 8322 3376 8328 3373 8330 3371 8338
      3376 8346 3381 8348 3382 8353 3390 8338
      3387 8336 3387 8333 3386 8333 3385 8328
      3390 8324 3395 8328 3397 8326 3377 8316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 146DEG 5KT 3378 8331

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
628 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ033-034-045-032300-
North Fulton GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
628 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
DEKALB AND WESTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 628 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Norcross, or 14 miles
north of Decatur...moving northeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta, Dunwoody, Duluth,
Suwanee, Lilburn, Norcross, Doraville, Berkeley Lake, Tucker and
Mechanicsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3411 8426 3410 8423 3410 8421 3409 8421
      3407 8418 3406 8415 3404 8404 3386 8418
      3394 8438 3412 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 204DEG 16KT 3398 8425

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
630 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ079-091-032300-
Marion GA-Talbot GA-
630 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MARION AND SOUTHWESTERN
TALBOT COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 629 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Marion Estates, or 12
miles south of Talbotton...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Talbotton, Junction City, Geneva, Box Springs, Marion Estates,
Juniper and Oakland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3249 8466 3249 8464 3253 8464 3253 8465
      3252 8468 3252 8469 3253 8468 3254 8468
      3256 8467 3256 8469 3265 8469 3269 8445
      3244 8445 3241 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 169DEG 9KT 3250 8457

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
632 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

GAZ043-032300-
Douglas GA-
632 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 632 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Bill Arp, or near
Douglasville...moving north at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Douglasville, Villa Rica, Lithia Springs, Winston, Lake Val-Do-Mar,
Chapel Hill, Bill Arp and Fairplay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3373 8490 3378 8490 3377 8485 3379 8473
      3381 8472 3380 8464 3368 8464 3368 8465
      3366 8466 3365 8471 3363 8473 3363 8475
      3362 8476 3361 8486 3373 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 169DEG 9KT 3370 8477

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH