Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
340 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

To begin the short term period, a 500 mb longwave trough is
positioned over the Atlantic coast, promoting northwesterly flow
aloft on the backside of the trough. At the surface, a weak surface
trough remains in place into central Georgia. Showers and
thunderstorms are ongoing across the forecast area, focused along a
southeastward moving shortwave embedded within the upper level
northwesterly flow and the surface trough. The highest convective
coverage is currently located near the Atlanta metro area and on an
E-W line across central Georgia from near Columbus to Macon.
Additional diurnally driven convection is furthermore possible
throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.

In typical July fashion, the atmosphere will remain very moist and
unstable through the period. Precipitable water values range from
1.75 to 2 inches this afternoon and will increase to over 2 inches
on Friday. As a result, heavy rain is to be expected with any
convective activity that occurs. Widespread flooding concerns are
not anticipated, but if localized flooding is nonetheless possible
if cells train over the same area or if slow-moving cells remain
over a location for a prolonged amount of time. Furthermore, while
convection will diminish in coverage with the loss of diurnal
heating, the deep moisture could allow for some thunderstorms to
remain well into the night tonight and tomorrow night.

Good instability is in place this afternoon, with MLCAPE
values of 2000-2500 J/kg, along with SBCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg and
DCAPE of 750-100 J/kg. While mid-level lapse rates are progged to be
marginal at around 6 to 6.5 C/km , it is possible that the shortwave
dropping southeastward through the area could enhance the lapse
rates higher than anticipated. Mid-level lapse rates are anticipated
to be slightly steeper tomorrow. As a result of these factors, it is
possible that a several storms each day could become strong,
producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. An
isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, as well, with
damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard.

High temperatures across central Georgia will be 3-5 degrees above
climatological normals this afternoon, in the upper 90s. Dewpoints
in the upper 60s and low 70s across the area will contribute to heat
index values between 100 and 104 across east and central Georgia,
but it does not appear that Heat Advisory criteria will be met this
afternoon. Higher coverage of convection and cloud coverage are more
likely to keep temperatures in check across the area tomorrow. High
temperatures tomorrow are thus expected to be near average across
the area, mainly in the low 90s. Dewpoints, however, will also be
higher across the area, leading to heat index values over 100 and
approaching 105 in some areas. These heat indices will need to be
monitored in ensuing forecasts as only a minor increase in
temperatures or dewpoints could lead to Heat Advisory criteria being
met.

King

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Guidance has been very consistent over the preceding days, and
therefore, only minor tweeks have been made to the long term
forecast. The previous long term forecast discussion continues to be
valid and is provided below...

Thiem

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019/

The long term portion of the forecast begins late on Friday with
high pressure situated just to the west/northwest of the local area
with an area of lower pressure in the vicinity of the southeast that
will persist through the weekend. Models are showing differences in
location, but overall impacts will be similar through the fist half
of the extended with plenty of moisture in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. This will allow for chances for showers and
thunderstorms daily with the best chances/coverage in the afternoons
and evenings. At this point, have included likely pops across much
of the area on Saturday and chance pops across the area on Sunday
with an area of likely pops across the northern tier. With moisture
continuing to advect into the area, higher coverage of showers and
storms is expected to continue on Monday as well. Likely pops have
been included across the northwestern portions of the area with
chance pops elsewhere.

By late Monday to Tuesday, a front will push into the area
continuing to enhance chances for rainfall across the area and
dropping temperatures to just below seasonal norms. As that front
approaches and enters the area, PWATs are expected to rise to around
2 inches increasing the potential for heavy rain. Likely pops have
been included for Monday through Wednesday in the afternoons and
evenings with the highest pops across northern portions of the area
before spreading southward as the days go on.

High temperatures through the weekend are closer to seasonal norms
with cooling trend after the weekend through the first half of the
work week. Overall, high temps are expected to be in the mid-80s to
mid-90s. Overnight low temperatures through the extended will be in
the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Reaves

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Scattered convection is ongoing across north Georgia, particularly
near the metro area, and is beginning to develop across central
Georgia. TEMPO for TSRA is in place starting 18-19Z at the metro
sites and AHN, and slightly later starting at 19-20Z at CSG/MCN.
Cu field at 035-050 is in place to begin the TAF period, although
TSRA could introduce some high-end MVFR ceilings, as well.
Convection is expected to linger into the overnight hours, so have
maintained VCSH until 04Z as a result. Winds throughout the period
will be mainly W, at 7-10 kts this afternoon before diminishing to
5 kts or less overnight, with the only exception being any gusty,
variable winds associated with TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing and locations of TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  93  73  92 /  30  50  40  50
Atlanta         75  91  74  89 /  30  60  40  60
Blairsville     67  86  68  84 /  20  50  30  60
Cartersville    73  91  73  89 /  30  50  30  60
Columbus        76  92  74  91 /  30  60  30  60
Gainesville     73  90  73  88 /  30  50  30  50
Macon           75  94  73  93 /  30  60  40  50
Rome            72  92  73  90 /  30  50  30  60
Peachtree City  74  91  73  90 /  30  60  40  60
Vidalia         75  95  75  94 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
256 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
256 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into this
evening. A few storms could become strong with isolated severe
storms possible. The main threats with any storm will be strong gusty
winds, heavy rainfall, and occasional cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible each day with the greatest
chances during the afternoon and evening hours. Strong to isolated
severe storms will be possible and could produce strong gusty
winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall.

Heat indices are forecast to be in the low triple digits in
several areas through the weekend with the highest heat indices
forecast on Friday. Those with outdoor plans through this weekend
should stay hydrated and take action to mitigate heat risk. Please
LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK to ensure children and pets are not left
unattended in vehicles during extreme heat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
548 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE MACON             32.84N  83.62W
07/18/2019                   BIBB               GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GDOT REPORTED TREE DOWN ON I-16 EASTBOUND AT THE MLK
            JR. BLVD. EXIT

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900575

KMM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
558 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

GAZ105>108-182230-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Wilcox GA-Pulaski GA-
558 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRISP...DOOLY...
NORTHWESTERN WILCOX AND PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 558 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Wallace to near Drayton...and moving southeast at 15
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Cordele, Hawkinsville, Vienna, Pineview, Pinehurst, Lilly, Georgia
Veterans Memorial St Pk, Richwood, Mock Springs, Pope City, Ocmulgee
Banks, Finleyson, Wallace, Drayton, Pleasant View, Tippettville,
Tremont, Hartford, Pulaski State Prison and Cedar Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3191 8391 3211 8399 3235 8343 3213 8331
      3212 8331 3211 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 315DEG 13KT 3218 8350 3205 8397

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
600 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

GAZ039-182230-
Wilkes GA-
600 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WILKES COUNTY UNTIL 630
PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Washington...moving
east at 5 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Washington, Aonia, Ficklin, Lundberg, Rocky Creek Fire Dept.,
Metasville, Floral Hill, Holliday Park and Celeste.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3364 8256 3365 8258 3363 8258 3364 8259
      3363 8262 3360 8266 3360 8269 3362 8269
      3361 8275 3365 8281 3365 8284 3374 8295
      3383 8273 3384 8259 3383 8260 3371 8253
      3365 8252
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 268DEG 6KT 3370 8271

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
602 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

GAZ085-086-182230-
Emanuel GA-Johnson GA-
602 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EMANUEL AND
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 602 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Meeks, or 9 miles
southeast of Wrightsville...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Swainsboro, Nunez, Kite, Norristown Junction, Dellwood, Covena,
Modoc, Meeks and Norristown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3246 8236 3256 8267 3261 8267 3262 8268
      3275 8264 3272 8229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 283DEG 15KT 3265 8259

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH