Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
146 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1058 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019/

UPDATE...

Some minor adjustments were made to the forecast based on the
latest observations and trends. Scaled back PoPs across northern
Georgia over the next couple of hours, as the complex of storms
associated with the shortwave dropping into the area did not hold
together. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is
nonetheless possible this afternoon and evening as the shortwave
drops further southeast, especially during peak heating this
afternoon.

King

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 724 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019/

SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...

500mb analysis shows a broad longwave trough across the east coast.
In addition, a weakening complex of showers and thunderstorms across
NW AL is associated with a stronger shortwave in the flow. This
shortwave will continue to drop southeast today. At the surface, a
weak trough is situated across the central CWFA.

The hi-res models are struggling with the initialization of the
shortwave/complex of storms to the NW. All of the models want to
weaken the complex as it continues to drip southward, but are not
handling the current convection across northern AL well. Scattered
storms should continue through the early morning hours, as there is
plenty of moisture and instability to fuel them. Have raised the
pops early this morning to reflect current conditions. A strong
storm cannot be ruled out early today.

As the shortwave drops southeast later today, do think another round
of convection is likely, especially during the heat of the day. Have
kept the pops in the chance category, as the hi-res models continue
to struggle with coverage (and timing). Have leaned a bit more on
the wrf than the hrrr for timing. However, if the morning convection
is a bit more robust than scattered in coverage, convective
development for the afternoon may initiate/linger a bit later than
what is currently in the forecast. Do think convection will diminish
in coverage coverage with the loss of heating, but could linger into
the late evening.

The atmos will remain very moist/unstable for Friday (it's July).
However, both the surface and mid level troughs will continue across
central GA. The troughs may tend to focus precip in their vicinity,
so the highest pops have been oriented across the central/south
central portion of the CWFA.

Plenty of available moisture with PWATS today and Friday 2+". The BL
winds both days should average 10kt or less, so slow moving heavy
rainers will be likely each day. Good CAPE is expected both days
with values 1000+ j/kg. Models are not progging good mid level lapse
rates for this afternoon, but do think they are a bit underdone,
especially with the shortwave dropping south. The mid level lapse
rates are a bit steeper tomorrow. A few strong storms are possible
each day, and an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
either.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Friday Night through Wednesday/...

The long term portion of the forecast begins late on Friday with
high pressure situated just to the west/northwest of the local area
with an area of lower pressure in the vicinity of the southeast that
will persist through the weekend. Models are showing differences in
location, but overall impacts will be similar through the fist half
of the extended with plenty of moisture in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. This will allow for chances for showers and
thunderstorms daily with the best chances/coverage in the afternoons
and evenings. At this point, have included likely pops across much
of the area on Saturday and chance pops across the area on Sunday
with an area of likely pops across the northern tier. With moisture
continuing to advect into the area, higher coverage of showers and
storms is expected to continue on Monday as well. Likely pops have
been included across the northwestern portions of the area with
chance pops elsewhere.

By late Monday to Tuesday, a front will push into the area
continuing to enhance chances for rainfall across the area and
dropping temperatures to just below seasonal norms. As that front
approaches and enters the area, PWATs are expected to rise to around
2 inches increasing the potential for heavy rain. Likely pops have
been included for Monday through Wednesday in the afternoons and
evenings with the highest pops across northern portions of the area
before spreading southward as the days go on.

High temperatures through the weekend are closer to seasonal norms
with cooling trend after the weekend through the first half of the
work week. Overall, high temps are expected to be in the mid-80s to
mid-90s. Overnight low temperatures through the extended will be in
the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Reaves

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Scattered convection is ongoing across north Georgia, particularly
near the metro area, and is beginning to develop across central
Georgia. TEMPO for TSRA is in place starting 18-19Z at the metro
sites and AHN, and slightly later starting at 19-20Z at CSG/MCN.
Cu field at 035-050 is in place to begin the TAF period, although
TSRA could introduce some high-end MVFR ceilings, as well.
Convection is expected to linger into the overnight hours, so have
maintained VCSH until 04Z as a result. Winds throughout the period
will be mainly W, at 7-10 kts this afternoon before diminishing to
5 kts or less overnight, with the only exception being any gusty,
variable winds associated with TSRA.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing and locations of TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  74  93  73 /  40  30  50  30
Atlanta         92  75  91  74 /  40  30  60  30
Blairsville     84  67  85  67 /  40  20  50  20
Cartersville    91  72  91  73 /  40  30  50  20
Columbus        95  76  92  74 /  40  40  70  30
Gainesville     90  73  89  73 /  40  30  50  20
Macon           97  75  94  73 /  40  40  60  30
Rome            92  73  92  73 /  40  20  40  20
Peachtree City  93  74  91  73 /  40  30  60  30
Vidalia         97  75  94  73 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...King

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