Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

To begin the short term period, the axis for the upper level ridge
pattern that was responsible for our long-lived upper northwesterly
flow pattern is centered over the forecast area. This ridge will
continue to flatten out and move eastward later today and into
Monday. As a result, the more organized convective complexes
traversing this upper flow will be positioned more to the east of
our forecast area today. Convection has entered the area from
Alabama and is positioned from northwest Georgia down to east-
central Georgia and moving east, along with a few diurnally driven
storms. It is also not entirely out of the question that one of the
complexes to the east could bring a few storms into the eastern
portion of the forecast area later today. Lapse rates this afternoon
are a bit lower than yesterday, and between 6.5 to 7.5 J/kg area-
wide. SBCAPE values generally range from 3000-3500 J/kg and DCAPE is
quite a bit lower than yesterday. In spite of the relative lack of
low level and deep layer shear, a few strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible in this environment, with damaging winds being the
primary hazard although some isolated instances of small hail are
possible. As a lot of the convection will be diurnal in nature, many
of the thunderstorms will begin to abate during the overnight hours.

The influence of the ridge will keep PoPs low during the overnight
and hours and into tomorrow morning. This will be short-lived, as
the ridge will move off to the east and a shortwave slides across
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes regions during Monday afternoon and
evening. On its southern end, this shortwave will drop a weakening
surface frontal boundary through the forecast area during this time.
This boundary will provide a focus across north Georgia with high-
end chance PoPs expected, with coverage diminishing in time as it
pushes further south, due to a lack of upper level support. Mid-
level lapse rates will further moderate on Monday, which will
further reduce the potential for severe weather. A few strong to
moderately severe thunderstorms, however, cannot be ruled out at
this time.

The high temperatures this afternoon and Monday afternoon will range
from near average to about 5 degrees above average, with mainly mid-
90s in central Georgia. Low temperatures both nights will be a
little higher than climatological normals at about 5 to 10 degrees
above average, with upper 60s in north Georgia and low 70s in
central Georgia expected. Although heat advisory criteria will
likely not be met, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across central
Georgia will likely contribute to heat index values in excess of 100
across central Georgia today and tomorrow.

King

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Only minor cosmetic changes were made to the long term forecast,
which remains on track. The previous discussion follows.

Baker

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Unsettled weather anticipated for the extended portion of the
forecast.

A somewhat unusual pattern to set up for the work week. Nearly zonal
flow aloft on top of a ridge is expected for the first part of the
week. The pattern will shift for the latter part of the week as an
upper low meanders over the central Gulf States. The low begins to
retrograde by the end of the week/early part of the weekend. The mid
levels will remain active with several shortwaves moving east in the
flow through the entire period.

A weak surface boundary will move through on Tuesday, and become
stationary across southern GA for much of the work week. The
boundary becomes weak and diffuse by Wednesday/early Thursday, but
still should provide focus for any precip.

NListemaa

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area through the TAF
period, with the exception of any localized lower vsbys due to
afternoon convection and the possibility of some MVFR ceilings
Monday morning. Prevailing W winds at 5-10 kts will decrease to less
than 5 kts and shift to SW to S by 00Z and during the overnight
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the
forecast area, and should remain until about 00Z. As a result,
have introduced a TEMPO group for -TSRA at the metro sites from
18-22Z, when the best coverage is anticipated.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on placement and timing of thunderstorms.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  71  91 /  30  30  30  20
Atlanta         73  90  72  89 /  20  30  30  20
Blairsville     65  84  64  83 /  20  40  40  20
Cartersville    71  89  69  88 /  20  40  40  20
Columbus        73  94  73  93 /  20  30  30  20
Gainesville     70  88  70  88 /  20  40  40  20
Macon           72  95  72  95 /  20  20  20  20
Rome            72  88  69  88 /  20  50  40  20
Peachtree City  71  91  70  90 /  20  30  30  20
Vidalia         74  97  74  96 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1157 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1157 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong
to severe with the main threats of damaging wind gusts, locally
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area
Monday through Saturday, primarily in the afternoon and evening
hours. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
442 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ001>004-232115-
Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Dade GA-
442 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHITFIELD...CATOOSA...WALKER AND
NORTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 442 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lookout Mountain, or 8
miles southwest of Chattanooga...moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dalton, Lafayette, Ringgold, Fort Oglethorpe, Rossville, Chickamauga,
Varnell, Lookout Mountain, Tunnel Hill, Cohutta, Center Post, Blue
Spring, Fairview, Linwood, Villanow, Chattanooga  Valley, Hooker,
Cooper Heights, Rock Spring and Naomi.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3499 8490 3486 8484 3481 8486 3480 8484
      3478 8488 3474 8485 3471 8486 3471 8494
      3467 8489 3468 8494 3466 8492 3464 8492
      3461 8502 3462 8506 3460 8506 3459 8513
      3459 8539 3472 8546 3498 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 247DEG 30KT 3496 8533

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
455 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ074-076-085-086-097-232130-
Jefferson GA-Washington GA-Emanuel GA-Johnson GA-Laurens GA-
455 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN
WASHINGTON...WESTERN EMANUEL...JOHNSON AND NORTHEASTERN LAURENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 454 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Spann, or near
Wrightsville...moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dublin, Sandersville, Wrightsville, Davisboro, Tennille, Harrison,
Bartow, Riddleville, Kite, Spann, Donovan, Tuckers Crossroad,
Pringle, Lovett, New Home, Meeks and Brewton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3259 8290 3296 8286 3297 8244 3253 8250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 299DEG 18KT 3267 8276

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
501 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE CROSS KEYS        32.87N  83.58W
06/23/2019                   JONES              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN OVER THE ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ADAHI
            AND NEW CLINTON DRIVE NE OF MACON GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900448

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ038-039-050-051-062-232130-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Warren GA-Oglethorpe GA-Greene GA-
501 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TALIAFERRO...WILKES...WARREN...
OGLETHORPE AND NORTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 501 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ficklin, or 7 miles
south of Washington...moving southeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Washington, Warrenton, Crawfordville, Tignall, Norwood, Rayle,
Sharon, Camak, Holliday Park, Newtown, Mesena, Lyneville, Carters
Grove, Jacksons Crossroads, Ficklin, Cadley, Mallorysville, Lundberg,
Norman and Metasville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3366 8251 3364 8256 3365 8258 3363 8258
      3364 8259 3363 8261 3363 8262 3362 8262
      3361 8265 3346 8259 3341 8255 3335 8255
      3334 8262 3379 8316 3399 8287 3398 8285
      3399 8284 3398 8279 3377 8256 3364 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 317DEG 39KT 3363 8277

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
508 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW ROCKY FACE        34.78N  85.04W
06/23/2019                   WHITFIELD          GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN IN ROCKY FACE GA NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            ENCLAVE DR AND MILL CREEK RD WEST OF DALTON GA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900449

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
511 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ002>005-232145-
Whitfield GA-Catoosa GA-Walker GA-Murray GA-
511 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WHITFIELD...CATOOSA...
SOUTHEASTERN WALKER AND MURRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 510 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Naomi, or near
Lafayette...moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Dalton, Lafayette, Chatsworth, Ringgold, Fort Oglethorpe, Varnell,
Eton, Tunnel Hill, Cohutta, Sumac, Linwood, Beaverdale, Villanow,
Fort Mountain State Park, Naomi, Suttles Mill, Noble, Wood Station,
Indian Springs and Rocky Face.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3499 8486 3475 8465 3459 8521 3474 8532
      3482 8520 3499 8525
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 240DEG 13KT 3471 8519

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH