Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

To begin the short term period, the axis for the upper level ridge
pattern that was responsible for our long-lived upper northwesterly
flow pattern is centered over the forecast area. This ridge will
continue to flatten out and move eastward later today and into
Monday. As a result, the more organized convective complexes
traversing this upper flow will be positioned more to the east of
our forecast area today. Convection has entered the area from
Alabama and is positioned from northwest Georgia down to east-
central Georgia and moving east, along with a few diurnally driven
storms. It is also not entirely out of the question that one of the
complexes to the east could bring a few storms into the eastern
portion of the forecast area later today. Lapse rates this afternoon
are a bit lower than yesterday, and between 6.5 to 7.5 J/kg area-
wide. SBCAPE values generally range from 3000-3500 J/kg and DCAPE is
quite a bit lower than yesterday. In spite of the relative lack of
low level and deep layer shear, a few strong to severe thunderstorms
are possible in this environment, with damaging winds being the
primary hazard although some isolated instances of small hail are
possible. As a lot of the convection will be diurnal in nature, many
of the thunderstorms will begin to abate during the overnight hours.

The influence of the ridge will keep PoPs low during the overnight
and hours and into tomorrow morning. This will be short-lived, as
the ridge will move off to the east and a shortwave slides across
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes regions during Monday afternoon and
evening. On its southern end, this shortwave will drop a weakening
surface frontal boundary through the forecast area during this time.
This boundary will provide a focus across north Georgia with high-
end chance PoPs expected, with coverage diminishing in time as it
pushes further south, due to a lack of upper level support. Mid-
level lapse rates will further moderate on Monday, which will
further reduce the potential for severe weather. A few strong to
moderately severe thunderstorms, however, cannot be ruled out at
this time.

The high temperatures this afternoon and Monday afternoon will range
from near average to about 5 degrees above average, with mainly mid-
90s in central Georgia. Low temperatures both nights will be a
little higher than climatological normals at about 5 to 10 degrees
above average, with upper 60s in north Georgia and low 70s in
central Georgia expected. Although heat advisory criteria will
likely not be met, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across central
Georgia will likely contribute to heat index values in excess of 100
across central Georgia today and tomorrow.

King

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Only minor cosmetic changes were made to the long term forecast,
which remains on track. The previous discussion follows.

Baker

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...

Unsettled weather anticipated for the extended portion of the
forecast.

A somewhat unusual pattern to set up for the work week. Nearly zonal
flow aloft on top of a ridge is expected for the first part of the
week. The pattern will shift for the latter part of the week as an
upper low meanders over the central Gulf States. The low begins to
retrograde by the end of the week/early part of the weekend. The mid
levels will remain active with several shortwaves moving east in the
flow through the entire period.

A weak surface boundary will move through on Tuesday, and become
stationary across southern GA for much of the work week. The
boundary becomes weak and diffuse by Wednesday/early Thursday, but
still should provide focus for any precip.

NListemaa

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area through the TAF
period, with the exception of any localized lower vsbys due to
afternoon convection and the possibility of some MVFR ceilings
Monday morning. Prevailing W winds at 5-10 kts will decrease to less
than 5 kts and shift to SW to S by 00Z and during the overnight
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing across the
forecast area, and should remain until about 00Z. As a result,
have introduced a TEMPO group for -TSRA at the metro sites from
18-22Z, when the best coverage is anticipated.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on placement and timing of thunderstorms.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  92  71  91 /  30  30  30  20
Atlanta         73  90  72  89 /  20  30  30  20
Blairsville     65  84  64  83 /  20  40  40  20
Cartersville    71  89  69  88 /  20  40  40  20
Columbus        73  94  73  93 /  20  30  30  20
Gainesville     70  88  70  88 /  20  40  40  20
Macon           72  95  72  95 /  20  20  20  20
Rome            72  88  69  88 /  20  50  40  20
Peachtree City  71  91  70  90 /  20  30  30  20
Vidalia         74  97  74  96 /  30  10  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1157 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1157 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly
during the afternoon and evening. A few storms could be strong
to severe with the main threats of damaging wind gusts, locally
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area
Monday through Saturday, primarily in the afternoon and evening
hours. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
351 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ059-060-072-232045-
Putnam GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
351 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...
NORTHWESTERN JONES AND SOUTHERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 351 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over McElheneys Crossroads,
or near Monticello...moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Monticello, McElheneys Crossroads, Round Oak, Adgateville, Wayside
and Hillsboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3305 8358 3314 8382 3318 8382 3319 8381
      3320 8382 3334 8378 3331 8349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 286DEG 17KT 3323 8373

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
354 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     HAIL             CULLODEN                32.87N  84.09W
06/23/2019  E1.00 INCH       MONROE             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT CULLODEN GA W OF MACON.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900445

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ045-046-055-057-232030-
Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Henry GA-
355 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROCKDALE...
NORTHEASTERN CLAYTON...SOUTHERN DEKALB AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Hidden Valley Park, or
10 miles northeast of Jonesboro...moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Jonesboro, Stockbridge, Forest Park, Morrow, Lake City, Hidden Valley
Park, Rex, Panola Mountain State Park, Magnet, Richardson Park,
Ellenwood and Kelleytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3367 8427 3363 8403 3356 8401 3354 8403
      3352 8422 3354 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 275DEG 14KT 3361 8421

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
355 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ060-061-072>074-084-232100-
Wilkinson GA-Washington GA-Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Hancock GA-Jones GA-
355 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WILKINSON...SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN PUTNAM...BALDWIN...SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK AND
NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Milledgeville...moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Milledgeville, Gray, Ivey, McIntyre, Toomsboro, Oconee, Deepstep,
Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Bradley, Beulah, Allenwood, Resseaus
Crossroads, Plant Harlee Branch, Hebron, Hardwick, Browns Crossing,
Ethridge, Devereux and Coopers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3303 8358 3321 8352 3331 8332 3321 8300
      3296 8288 3275 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 227DEG 29KT 3310 8321

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
358 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

GAZ104>110-232100-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Telfair GA-Sumter GA-Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
358 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRISP...DOOLY...SOUTHWESTERN
TELFAIR...SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER...WILCOX...SOUTHWESTERN DODGE AND
SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Rochelle, or 7 miles
southwest of Abbeville...moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cordele, Vienna, Abbeville, Rochelle, Arabi, Pineview, Pinehurst,
Leslie, Rhine, Pitts, Lilly, De Soto, Jacksonville, Desoto, Cobb,
Horse Creek Wma, Richwood, Seville, Drayton and China Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3181 8309 3181 8314 3185 8318 3185 8361
      3180 8361 3180 8380 3182 8385 3184 8386
      3185 8394 3191 8392 3192 8411 3227 8384
      3182 8281 3178 8287 3179 8298 3178 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 310DEG 20KT 3194 8343

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT SUN JUN 23 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND GST     ATLANTA                 33.64N  84.43W
06/23/2019  M58 MPH          CLAYTON            GA   ASOS

            ATL ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST AT 50 KTS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900446

TV