Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

An unstable airmass across the area has allowed for the development
of showers and thunderstorms as well as SPC issuing a severe thunder
storm watch across many central GA counties south of ATL/AHN until 23Z.
The main hazard will be damaging winds.

Otherwise, an upper level low pressure system over the mid U.S. will
drift toward the TN valley through the short term period allowing
for SSW flow aloft and deep moisture to continue over the area.
Another surge of deep moisture is expected later tonight and Saturday
and this will allow for numerous to occasional showers and storms
across the area.

Greatest Rainfall amounts continue to be expected over north GA
with 1.5 to 3 inches expected through Saturday night with the
greatest amounts favoring the ne mountains. These amounts are over
a 36-42 hour period. Conditions will be monitored for a possible
flash flood watch in the future.

Forecast low temperatures are running about 5-10 degrees
above normal across much of the area tonight and similar for
Saturday night. Forecast high temperatures are running
about 2-7 degrees below normal on Saturday.

Overall confidence is medium.

BDL

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

No big changes made to the long term. Overall pattern still the same
with the upper closed low drifting eastward over the southeast
states and becoming a broad trough. Likely or higher pops still look
reasonable across much of the area. Surface boundary seems to stall
across GA for the first of the week. Pops taper off late Wednesday
into Thursday as the upper wave moves northeast along the Atlantic
seaboard. At this time...Friday is shaping up to be dry. Rainfall
totals for the period through Wednesday still range from around
three to six inches. Enhanced easterly upslope flow over the weekend
could potentially put seven day amounts near seven inches in
portions of the northeast mountains.

41

.Previous...
/355 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019/...

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

The long term starts with a cut-off mid-level low pressure system
centered in the western Ohio River Valley, which will be responsible
for hammering the forecast area with round after round of rain in
the short term. Further north, a mid-level ridge with a descent
amplitude will have it's axis situated over the Great Lakes region.
Usually this Rex Blocking pattern would persist for longer, however,
a digging longwave trough from the front range of Northern U.S.
Rockies will push into the Northern Plains and Midwest, and sweep up
the cut-off low Sunday through Monday. As this occurs, we'll
continue to be inundated with rain at least through Monday night.

As the trough kicks through, it'll help organize the surface low
pressure and wrap it up towards the northeast, leaving a frontal
boundary behind separating a surface high pressure that will follow
the trough, and the warm tropical Gulf coast airmass. The location
of the stationary front will determine where the rain chances will
be focused and there's currently a discrepancy between some mid-range
model runs on if it will set up through our CWA and provide even
more rain to the area Tuesday and Wednesday or if we can get a break
with the frontal boundary stalling closer to the coastline.

Thiem

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A low confidence forecast due to the potential for a flare up
of showers and storms this afternoon with a more prolonged period
of showers and storms on Saturday. Mostly MVFR/VFR ceilings this
afternoon with potential for IFR-MVFR ceilings overnight. Surface
winds mostly SW around 10 kts this afternoon then light SSW for
the overnight becoming ESE for Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence for storms affecting the airfield to start
 and Medium-High confidence for all the other elements to start.
Low-Medium confidence for all elements tonight/Saturday.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  80  68  80 /  70  90  80  80
Atlanta         71  81  70  80 /  70  90  70  70
Blairsville     65  75  63  75 /  70  90  80  80
Cartersville    69  80  68  81 /  70  90  70  70
Columbus        72  84  71  83 /  70  80  70  70
Gainesville     69  78  68  78 /  70  90  80  80
Macon           71  84  69  83 /  70  80  70  70
Rome            68  81  68  81 /  70  90  70  70
Peachtree City  69  82  68  80 /  70  90  70  70
Vidalia         73  86  71  86 /  60  90  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...
Chattahoochee...Clayton...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dooly...
Fayette...Greene...Hancock...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...Oconee...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...
Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Webster...
Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
431 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-082045-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
431 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop this afternoon into tonight. Some of these storms could
become severe with high winds and small hail. Otherwise...a few
strong storms with heavy rain...gusty winds...and lightning can be
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday through
Thursday with the greatest coverage Saturday through Monday. Any
thunderstorms will be capable of gusty winds, lightning and heavy
rain. Flooding could be a growing concern as we approach the
weekend with continued rounds of showers and storms. Please
monitor updates for any changes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

GAZ031-041>044-072045-
Douglas GA-Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-South Fulton GA-
415 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARALSON...CARROLL...SOUTHERN PAULDING AND SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 415 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ranburne, or 15 miles
west of Carrollton...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Carrollton, Villa Rica, Bremen, Temple, Bowdon, Mount Zion,
Whitesburg, Waco, Ephesus, Roopville, Byers Crossroads, Bowdon
Junction, Hannah, Tyus, Seaton Lake, Fairplay, Clem, Abilene, Lake
Val-Do-Mar and John Tanner State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3382 8487 3351 8479 3351 8485 3349 8486
      3348 8489 3342 8520 3343 8529 3367 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 245DEG 32KT 3352 8534

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
421 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

GAZ023-025-034-035-072045-
Hall GA-Jackson GA-Barrow GA-Gwinnett GA-
421 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALL...JACKSON...
NORTHERN BARROW AND NORTHEASTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

At 420 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Auburn, or 8 miles
northwest of Winder...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Winder, Jefferson, Buford, Braselton, Auburn, Dacula, Maysville,
Arcade, Hoschton, Pendergrass, Carl, Talmo, Candler, Peach State
Speedway, County Line, Thompsons Mill, Chateau Elan, Chestnut
Mountain, Road Atlanta-Lanier Speedway and Apple Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3429 8361 3427 8359 3426 8357 3407 8343
      3394 8389 3411 8399 3429 8362
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 246DEG 29KT 3406 8386

WIND...40MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
425 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW MARION ESTATES    32.51N  84.58W
06/07/2019                   MARION             GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON DR. BROOKS ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900262

LREAVES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW BATTLE PARK       32.35N  84.98W
06/07/2019                   CHATTAHOOCHEE      GA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            A TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON SIGHTSEEING ROAD NEAR
            BERNHEIM DENTAL CLINIC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1900264

LREAVES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
442 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

GAZ080>082-093>095-104-105-072115-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Dooly GA-Taylor GA-Bibb GA-Sumter GA-Houston GA-
Crawford GA-
442 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MACON...PEACH...WESTERN DOOLY...
EASTERN TAYLOR...SOUTHERN BIBB...EASTERN SUMTER...WESTERN HOUSTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 442 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Nakomis to near Whitewater State Park to Huntington...
and moving north at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Perry, Fort Valley, Oglethorpe, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron,
Montezuma, Marshallville, Byromville, Leslie, Lilly, De Soto,
Dooling, Lamar, Whitewater State Park, Nakomis, Meadowdale, Houston
Lake, Huntington and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3226 8406 3252 8412 3277 8362 3256 8364
      3208 8384 3203 8393 3203 8396 3202 8395
      3191 8415 3192 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 201DEG 16KT 3252 8400 3233 8404 3200 8414

WIND...50MPH