Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
300 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...

An unstable airmass across the area has allowed for the development
of showers and thunderstorms as well as SPC issuing a severe thunder
storm watch across many central GA counties south of ATL/AHN until 23Z.
The main hazard will be damaging winds.

Otherwise, an upper level low pressure system over the mid U.S. will
drift toward the TN valley through the short term period allowing
for SSW flow aloft and deep moisture to continue over the area.
Another surge of deep moisture is expected later tonight and Saturday
and this will allow for numerous to occasional showers and storms
across the area.

Greatest Rainfall amounts continue to be expected over north GA
with 1.5 to 3 inches expected through Saturday night with the
greatest amounts favoring the ne mountains. These amounts are over
a 36-42 hour period. Conditions will be monitored for a possible
flash flood watch in the future.

Forecast low temperatures are running about 5-10 degrees
above normal across much of the area tonight and similar for
Saturday night. Forecast high temperatures are running
about 2-7 degrees below normal on Saturday.

Overall confidence is medium.

BDL

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...

No big changes made to the long term. Overall pattern still the same
with the upper closed low drifting eastward over the southeast
states and becoming a broad trough. Likely or higher pops still look
reasonable across much of the area. Surface boundary seems to stall
across GA for the first of the week. Pops taper off late Wednesday
into Thursday as the upper wave moves northeast along the Atlantic
seaboard. At this time...Friday is shaping up to be dry. Rainfall
totals for the period through Wednesday still range from around
three to six inches. Enhanced easterly upslope flow over the weekend
could potentially put seven day amounts near seven inches in
portions of the northeast mountains.

41

.Previous...
/355 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019/...

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

The long term starts with a cut-off mid-level low pressure system
centered in the western Ohio River Valley, which will be responsible
for hammering the forecast area with round after round of rain in
the short term. Further north, a mid-level ridge with a descent
amplitude will have it's axis situated over the Great Lakes region.
Usually this Rex Blocking pattern would persist for longer, however,
a digging longwave trough from the front range of Northern U.S.
Rockies will push into the Northern Plains and Midwest, and sweep up
the cut-off low Sunday through Monday. As this occurs, we'll
continue to be inundated with rain at least through Monday night.

As the trough kicks through, it'll help organize the surface low
pressure and wrap it up towards the northeast, leaving a frontal
boundary behind separating a surface high pressure that will follow
the trough, and the warm tropical Gulf coast airmass. The location
of the stationary front will determine where the rain chances will
be focused and there's currently a discrepancy between some mid-range
model runs on if it will set up through our CWA and provide even
more rain to the area Tuesday and Wednesday or if we can get a break
with the frontal boundary stalling closer to the coastline.

Thiem

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A low confidence forecast due to the potential for a flare up
of showers and storms this afternoon with a more prolonged period
of showers and storms on Saturday. Mostly MVFR/VFR ceilings this
afternoon with potential for IFR-MVFR ceilings overnight. Surface
winds mostly SW around 10 kts this afternoon then light SSW for
the overnight becoming ESE for Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence for storms affecting the airfield to start
 and Medium-High confidence for all the other elements to start.
Low-Medium confidence for all elements tonight/Saturday.

BDL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  80  68  80 /  70  90  80  80
Atlanta         71  81  70  80 /  70  90  70  70
Blairsville     65  75  63  75 /  70  90  80  80
Cartersville    69  80  68  81 /  70  90  70  70
Columbus        72  84  71  83 /  70  80  70  70
Gainesville     69  78  68  78 /  70  90  80  80
Macon           71  84  69  83 /  70  80  70  70
Rome            68  81  68  81 /  70  90  70  70
Peachtree City  69  82  68  80 /  70  90  70  70
Vidalia         73  86  71  86 /  60  90  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...
Chattahoochee...Clayton...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dooly...
Fayette...Greene...Hancock...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...Oconee...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...
Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Webster...
Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...BDL
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1201 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081615-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1201 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop this afternoon into tonight. An isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out especially this afternoon. Otherwise...a few strong
storms with heavy rain...gusty winds...and lightning can be
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Saturday through
Thursday with the greatest coverage Saturday through Monday. Any
thunderstorms will be capable of gusty winds, lightning and heavy
rain. Flooding could be a growing concern as we approach the
weekend with continued rounds of showers and storms. Please
monitor updates for any changes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
240 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

GAZ031-032-042-043-071915-
Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-
240 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHWESTERN
COBB...NORTHEASTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

At 239 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Villa Rica, or 11
miles west of Douglasville...moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Douglasville, Dallas, Villa Rica, Powder Springs, Austell, Temple,
Hiram, Lithia Springs, Lost Mountain Park, Brownsville, Winston, Lake
Val-Do-Mar, New Georgia and Mableton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3365 8496 3379 8504 3398 8470 3379 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 240DEG 24KT 3375 8494

WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

GAZ014-015-022-023-071930-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-Forsyth GA-Lumpkin GA-
252 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HALL...SOUTHEASTERN
DAWSON...NORTHEASTERN FORSYTH AND SOUTHEASTERN LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL
330 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Silver City, or near
Dawsonville...moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Gainesville, Dahlonega, Dawsonville, Dougherty, Matt, Silver City,
Chestatee, Murrayville, Auraria, Garland, Coal Mountain and War Hill
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3424 8416 3439 8424 3456 8391 3436 8379
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 242DEG 22KT 3434 8414

WIND...40MPH