Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
304 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

...Afternoon Forecast Update...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

A line of thunderstorms is entering the northwest corner of the CWA
and is expected to slowly push southeastward into the area during
the late afternoon and into the overnight hours. This axis of
showers and thunderstorms is once again expected to stall during the
overnight hours along and north of the I-85 corridor, including the
metro area.

As a warm front pushes through the area this afternoon and evening,
the atmosphere will destabilize enough to allow for MUCAPE values in
the 500-1000 J/kg range to spread across our forecast area.
Maintained a chance of thunder this afternoon through late Thursday
as a result. Moisture is continuing to increase as well due to the
continued southwest flow aloft combined with warm, southeasterly
Gulf air behind the warm front. PWAT values will approach the 1.6 to
1.8 inch range by late afternoon which is abnormally high for the
month of February for our area, necessitating an upward trend in
PoPs and rainfall rates across northern Georgia.

A cold front will then move into north Georgia Thursday. Model
guidance is coming into better agreement that the front may not be
able to make it through the forecast area due to the parallel
southwesterly flow aloft. Hi-res models similarly keep the front
oriented SW to NW across the northern portion of Georgia, then lift
the heaviest precipitation into TN/KY on early Friday morning.
GFS/ECMWF are coming into agreement with this thinking as well.

Total QPF amounts have been trended up to around 1 to 3 inches
across the axis of precipitation over north and west Georgia from
this afternoon through tomorrow afternoon. Locally higher amounts
will also be possible due to the convective nature of the
precipitation, along with the possibility of some training.
Moreover, soils are saturated due to previous rainfall
accumulations, so this amount of rainfall will produce significant
runoff and lead to some additional creek and river flooding. A Flash
Flood Watch is in effect for most of North Georgia, as a result.
This Flash Flood Watch replaces the previously issued Areal Flood
Watch.

King

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

The long term begins with a stalled front draped across the
northern portions of our CWA with the southwesterly firehose of
enhanced moisture still firmly in place. Luckily the axis of
heaviest rainfall looks to be located further to the north and
west, but continued accumulations are expected through Sunday.

A planetary Rossby wave train will begin to move through the area
on Friday which will act to amplify the troughs and ridges in
place over the CONUS and break us out of the pattern we've been
stuck in for the last week. This amplification of the ridge over
the eastern U.S. will strengthen a surface high and kick it out
of the Great Lakes region into New England. This high pressure,
once it starts to transition to the east side of the Appalachians
on Friday, will enhance cold air damming along the southeastern
Blue Ridge mtns and drive a wedge front into North Georgia. This
extra lift will act to enhance precip in the region on Friday and
Saturday as the warm, moist flow overrides the cool air.

An upper level trough, also enhanced by the Rossby wave train,
will begin to lift across the eastern CONUS on Sunday, occluding
a surface low-pressure system on its journey from the Southern
Plains to the Great Lakes. A cold front extending from the system
then pushes through the area Sunday morning/afternoon. Then for
the first time, in what seems like a very long time, we'll expect
mostly sunny skies and drier conditions for several days. Hooray!
A surface high pressure, now expected to be stronger than in
previous model runs, will follow the front and settle into the
area. As of the new 12Z runs of the GFS and Euro, this high
pressure will push the next expected subtropical wave back a full
day. Keeping the area dry until next Wednesday, when we resume a
more regular synoptic pattern.

Thiem

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
A mix of IFR/LIFR cigs will continue through the forecast, along
with reduced visibilities. To start the period this afternoon,
winds will be E at about 7-12 kts. Winds will then weaken during
the overnight hours tonight, and are expected to gradually shift
to W to NW by the early morning hours Thursday. The highest rain
chances remain across north Georgia, with -SHRA anticipated across
the metro TAF sites and AHN tonight and into Thursday. With some
instability behind a warm front lifting northward across the area,
there is a chance for -TSRA this afternoon and tonight. Some
elevated wind shear is possible in the northern sites between
about 02-08Z. Left thunder out of the TAF for now but will
continue to evaluate the 02-08Z timeframe.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence on elevated wind shear and thunder chances.
Medium confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  62  54  59 /  60  60  70  60
Atlanta         50  64  55  63 /  70  60  60  60
Blairsville     46  59  51  57 /  80  80  70  80
Cartersville    50  60  52  63 /  80  70  70  80
Columbus        60  76  62  76 /  50  50  60  50
Gainesville     44  60  53  57 /  80  70  70  70
Macon           57  77  61  72 /  30  50  50  50
Rome            50  58  51  61 /  90  70  70  80
Peachtree City  53  68  56  66 /  60  60  60  60
Vidalia         61  80  63  79 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for the following
zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattooga...
Cherokee...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Dade...Dawson...DeKalb...
Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...
Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Heard...Jackson...Lumpkin...
Murray...North Fulton...Paulding...Pickens...Polk...South
Fulton...Towns...Union...Walker...White...Whitfield.

&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Thiem
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1155 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211700-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1155 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Strong wind gusts combined with extremely saturated soils in
northern Georgia have resulted in conditions susceptible for
trees to become uprooted and blown over. Trees may be blown onto
structures, roadways or powerlines causing further power outages
across the area.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to impact the area
this afternoon and evening. The main hazards with any storm will
be gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for most of North Georgia
including the Atlanta metro, where up to 2 inches of rapidly
accumulating rainfall could occur with this evening's storms. The
Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday evening, and takes
the place of the previously issued Flood Watch. As a result of
multiple periods with heavy rainfall, nearly all the rain that
will fall will be converted to runoff and some localized flooding
of creeks and streams may be possible across portions of northern
Georgia.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through Thursday
evening, with further Flood Watches possible through Sunday
morning. Multiple rounds of rain are expected across much of the
area through Sunday, with 2 to as much as 4 inches possible by the
end of the week. The highest rainfall amounts at this time are
expected across northwest Georgia. An increased threat for river
and stream flooding will continue through the week as rain falls
over saturated grounds. Localized flash flooding will also be
possible, especially over the complex terrain of north Georgia.
Make sure to stay tuned to the latest forecasts and updates each
day for any changes to the forecast.

In addition, there is a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon
through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
556 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

GAZ011-012-019-020-030-202345-
Chattooga GA-Polk GA-Gordon GA-Bartow GA-Floyd GA-
556 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHATTOOGA...NORTHWESTERN
POLK...SOUTHWESTERN GORDON...WESTERN BARTOW AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL
645 PM EST...

At 556 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was west of Cave Spring,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud-to-
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Cartersville, Calhoun, Cedartown, Adairsville, Euharlee, Cave
Spring, Kingston, Plainville, Cassville, Shannon, Pinson, Etna,
Lindale, Oostanaula, Tidings, Armuchee, Folsom, Seney and Coosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3434 8547 3452 8513 3445 8483 3417 8482
      3399 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 238DEG 47KT 3413 8547

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
602 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

GAZ023-025-034-035-045>048-055-057-202330-
Hall GA-Jackson GA-Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Barrow GA-Clayton GA-
DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-Newton GA-Henry GA-
602 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HALL...WESTERN
JACKSON...NORTHWESTERN WALTON...ROCKDALE...WESTERN BARROW...NORTHERN
CLAYTON...DEKALB...GWINNETT...NORTHERN NEWTON AND NORTHERN HENRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST...

At 601 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Lilburn to Riverdale, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud-to-
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Lawrenceville, Decatur, Conyers, Winder, Sandy Springs,
Dunwoody, Duluth, Sugar Hill, Forest Park, Snellville, Suwanee,
Riverdale, Buford, Lilburn, Loganville, Chamblee, Norcross, Doraville
and Clarkston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3417 8379 3401 8369 3365 8385 3358 8442
      3365 8441 3365 8435 3366 8435 3397 8434
      3396 8428 3400 8424 3400 8422 3399 8419
      3403 8417 3403 8412 3406 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 238DEG 44KT 3390 8419 3373 8424 3356 8442

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
616 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

GAZ042>044-052>054-202345-
Fayette GA-Douglas GA-Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-South Fulton GA-
616 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...DOUGLAS...
NORTHWESTERN COWETA...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN HEARD AND
SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EST...

At 615 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was northeast of Franklin,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud-to-
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Newnan, Douglasville, Carrollton, Franklin, Peachtree City, Union
City, Villa Rica, Fairburn, Tyrone, Palmetto, Whitesburg,
Centralhatchee, Roopville, Chattahoochee Hill Country, Plant Yates,
Bill Arp, Seaton Lake, Fairplay, Dunaway Gardens and Clem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3323 8514 3347 8518 3376 8488 3369 8456
      3346 8453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 238DEG 44KT 3338 8502

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
639 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

GAZ033-043>046-053>055-057-210030-
Fayette GA-North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-
Coweta GA-DeKalb GA-Henry GA-South Fulton GA-
639 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAYETTE...NORTH FULTON...
DOUGLAS...WESTERN ROCKDALE...CLAYTON...NORTHEASTERN COWETA...
DEKALB...WESTERN HENRY AND SOUTH FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EST...

At 638 PM EST...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from near
Campbellton to southwest of Newnan, moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud-to-
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Atlanta, Newnan, Douglasville, Decatur, Fayetteville, Jonesboro,
Peachtree City, East Point, Stockbridge, Union City, Forest Park,
Riverdale, College Park, Fairburn, Clarkston, Hampton, Tyrone,
Morrow, Lovejoy and Hapeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3370 8479 3375 8458 3374 8458 3375 8456
      3385 8416 3376 8405 3336 8427 3330 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 248DEG 41KT 3367 8462 3333 8486

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
649 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

GAZ031-041>043-210030-
Douglas GA-Haralson GA-Carroll GA-Paulding GA-
649 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DOUGLAS...HARALSON...CARROLL AND
SOUTHERN PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EST...

At 649 PM EST...a strong thunderstorm was west of Carrollton, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud-to-
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Douglasville, Carrollton, Dallas, Buchanan, Villa Rica, Bremen,
Temple, Hiram, Tallapoosa, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Waco, Yorkville,
Brownsville, Bill Arp, Fairplay, Abilene, Draketown, Winston and Lake
Val-Do-Mar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3391 8508 3391 8505 3395 8504 3396 8497
      3391 8473 3381 8472 3381 8470 3366 8467
      3344 8530 3369 8535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 233DEG 45KT 3360 8523

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH