Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
640 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
VFR conditions at all sites to start off the period. A cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms look to impact mainly the I-35 sites
tonight. There is still some uncertainty with the timing and extent
of storm activity tonight. Confident that I-35 sites will have a
period of a few hours of MVFR to IFR conditions due to thunderstorms
late this evening and tonight. Once the rain clears the area, MVFR
condtitions will prevail till late morning. DRT is expected to have
only a brief period of MVFR tomorrow morning. Ceilings scatter out
to VFR around the 16Z period with southeasterly winds around 10
knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
A lot of factors at play this afternoon and tonight that will
influence the area. First, ongoing showers and thunder in our
furthest eastern counties. These are primarily diurnal driven
convection that will continue intermittently through sunset. To our
north, a remnant outflow boundary has initiated a line of convection
just north of I-20 from Mineral Wells to Abilene. As this complex
pushes south, it will move through a favorable environment for
strong to severe storms, as instability is quite high. CAPE values
range from 4000-5000 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and adequate shear all
indicate the potential for these storms to be severe. SPC currently
has a highlighted enhanced risk for the area north of I-10, including
Austin, and the northeast portion of San Antonio. In this moisture
rich atmosphere where PWATs range from 1.8 - 1.9, 1-2 inches are
possible with this complex, with isolated areas seeing higher
amounts. Timing for these storms to enter the Hill Country is tonight
from 10pm to midnight, then progressing south southeast to the I-35
corridor. Main threats will be damaging winds and large hail (up to
golf ball size), though there is still a chance for tornadoes. As
this complex progresses overnight, Monday morning could still hold
residual showers, especially east of I-35. These showers won't be
enough to keep temperatures down, as we will still reach normal to
just above normal temperatures of low to mid 90s, and triple digit
heat in our southwest counties.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Tuesday, an impulse passes to our east, leaving a chance for showers
and thunder for our eastern counties, while the remainder of the area
stays dry. Weak ridging sets up and remains in place for a mostly
dry week. This ridging will have temperatures on the rise up to
100-103 for the I-35 corridor on Thursday. With our very moist
airmass still in place, heat indices will be elevated as well.
Getting into next weekend, hot and humid conditions with few clouds
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  93  75  96  76 /  60  30  -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  93  74  96  75 /  60  30  -   10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  73  96  74 /  50  30   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  92  73  95  74 /  60  30  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  98  76  98  77 /  20  -   -   -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  93  74  96  74 /  60  30  10  10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             73  98  75 100  75 /  30  20  -   -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  94  73  97  74 /  60  30   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  75  95  76 /  60  50   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  95  75  98  76 /  50  30  -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  95  75  98  76 /  40  30  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...EWilliams/Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...04
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
234 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171945-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
234 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across most of south central Texas with the greatest
potential across portions of the Hill Country and Central Texas.
Damaging winds, large hail, an isolated tornado, and locally heavy
rain will all be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot and humid conditions will return to south central Texas,
especially Wednesday through Friday. Afternoon heat indices on
those dates are likely to reach the 102 to 110 degree range along
the Rio Grande and areas along and east of I-35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed across Central Texas and
the Hill Country this evening and tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             5 WSW HARPER            30.27N 99.33W
06/16/2019  E1.00 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1003 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HAIL             4 ENE MOUNTAIN HOME     30.19N 99.32W
06/16/2019  E2.00 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1032 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ172-173-170415-
Williamson TX-Burnet TX-
1032 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON AND
NORTHERN BURNET COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1031 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Briggs, or 14 miles northeast of Bertram, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Round Rock, Georgetown, Bertram, Serenada, Liberty Hill, Jarrell,
Florence, Weir, Georgetown Dam, Watson, Briggs, Sun City, Lake
Victor, Mahomet, Sunnylane, Joppa, Andice, Shady Grove, Theon and
Walburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3095 9785 3091 9783 3088 9766 3081 9747
      3058 9764 3077 9816 3092 9844 3093 9844
      3092 9842 3094 9841 3095 9845 3098 9844
      3101 9846 3103 9844 3103 9809
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 299DEG 17KT 3089 9789

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1037 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ193-194-209-170445-
Bastrop TX-Fayette TX-Lee TX-
1037 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BASTROP...LEE AND
NORTH CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1037 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paige, or 10 miles northeast of Bastrop, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bastrop, Giddings, Lexington, Dime Box, Fedor, Paige, Circle D-KC
Estates, Camp Swift, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway, Serbin,
Bastrop State Park, Northrup, Blue, Old Dime Box, Ledbetter, Loebau,
Warda, Hills, Leo and Lincoln.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3018 9676 3016 9679 3015 9678 3002 9682
      3011 9732 3045 9712 3045 9688 3043 9687
      3043 9685 3039 9679 3032 9674 3032 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 282DEG 20KT 3023 9719

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1106 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ185>187-170430-
Kerr TX-Real TX-Bandera TX-
1106 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BANDERA...WEST
CENTRAL KERR AND SOUTHEASTERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1106 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lost Maples State Natural Area to 7 miles
northeast of Tuff. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Vanderpool and Lost Maples State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2970 9954 2972 9972 2985 9980 2999 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 0406Z 271DEG 14KT 2985 9957 2986 9971

CP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1121 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ172-173-170515-
Williamson TX-Burnet TX-
1121 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON AND
NORTHERN BURNET COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Andice, or 9 miles northwest of Serenada, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Taylor, Granger, Bertram, Serenada, Bartlett, Jarrell,
Florence, Weir, Georgetown Dam, Watson, Briggs, Sun City, Lake
Victor, Mahomet, Sunnylane, Joppa, Andice, Shady Grove and Theon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3091 9783 3087 9763 3078 9739 3057 9747
      3072 9804 3092 9843 3094 9841 3095 9844
      3101 9846 3103 9844 3103 9791
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 282DEG 14KT 3077 9782

MO