Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2019

Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

June 16, 2019Lee County, Texas

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jun 16, 2019, 10:54 PM CDT for Lee County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2019, 10:54 PM CDT (03:54 UTC)
Expired: Jun 17, 2019, 2:00 AM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

County Lee County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 272 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1941 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 165 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 216 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

370 
WGUS54 KEWX 170354
FFWEWX
TXC287-170700-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.W.0033.190617T0354Z-190617T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1054 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Lee County in south central Texas...

* Until 200 AM CDT.

* At 1054 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area of northern and northeastern Lee 
  County. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. Flash 
  flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Lexington, Dime Box, Tanglewood, Fedor, Lake Somerville State Park
  & Trailway, Leo and Old Dime Box.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9665 3032 9710 3046 9715 3056 9696
      3054 9692 3049 9690 3046 9690 3046 9688
      3043 9687 3043 9685 3039 9679 3032 9674
      3032 9669

$$

MO

1 follow-up statement

475 
WGUS74 KEWX 170618
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
118 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

TXC287-170700-
/O.CON.KEWX.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190617T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lee TX-
118 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY...

At 116 AM CDT, Doppler radar continued to indicate thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across the warned area of Northeastern Lee 
County. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen, and an 
additional 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is expected through 2 am.. Flash 
flooding is likely occurring, and the warning may need to be 
extended if the heavy rainfall continues.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lexington, Dime Box, Tanglewood, Fedor, Lake Somerville State Park &
Trailway, Leo and Old Dime Box.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 9665 3032 9710 3046 9715 3056 9696
      3054 9692 3049 9690 3046 9690 3046 9688
      3043 9687 3043 9685 3039 9679 3032 9674
      3032 9669

$$

MO

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jun 16, 6:40 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 6:40 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
640 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.UPDATE...
VFR conditions at all sites to start off the period. A cluster of
strong to severe thunderstorms look to impact mainly the I-35 sites
tonight. There is still some uncertainty with the timing and extent
of storm activity tonight. Confident that I-35 sites will have a
period of a few hours of MVFR to IFR conditions due to thunderstorms
late this evening and tonight. Once the rain clears the area, MVFR
condtitions will prevail till late morning. DRT is expected to have
only a brief period of MVFR tomorrow morning. Ceilings scatter out
to VFR around the 16Z period with southeasterly winds around 10
knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
A lot of factors at play this afternoon and tonight that will
influence the area. First, ongoing showers and thunder in our
furthest eastern counties. These are primarily diurnal driven
convection that will continue intermittently through sunset. To our
north, a remnant outflow boundary has initiated a line of convection
just north of I-20 from Mineral Wells to Abilene. As this complex
pushes south, it will move through a favorable environment for
strong to severe storms, as instability is quite high. CAPE values
range from 4000-5000 J/kg, steep lapse rates, and adequate shear all
indicate the potential for these storms to be severe. SPC currently
has a highlighted enhanced risk for the area north of I-10, including
Austin, and the northeast portion of San Antonio. In this moisture
rich atmosphere where PWATs range from 1.8 - 1.9, 1-2 inches are
possible with this complex, with isolated areas seeing higher
amounts. Timing for these storms to enter the Hill Country is tonight
from 10pm to midnight, then progressing south southeast to the I-35
corridor. Main threats will be damaging winds and large hail (up to
golf ball size), though there is still a chance for tornadoes. As
this complex progresses overnight, Monday morning could still hold
residual showers, especially east of I-35. These showers won't be
enough to keep temperatures down, as we will still reach normal to
just above normal temperatures of low to mid 90s, and triple digit
heat in our southwest counties.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Tuesday, an impulse passes to our east, leaving a chance for showers
and thunder for our eastern counties, while the remainder of the area
stays dry. Weak ridging sets up and remains in place for a mostly
dry week. This ridging will have temperatures on the rise up to
100-103 for the I-35 corridor on Thursday. With our very moist
airmass still in place, heat indices will be elevated as well.
Getting into next weekend, hot and humid conditions with few clouds
are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  93  75  96  76 /  60  30  -   -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  93  74  96  75 /  60  30  -   10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  93  73  96  74 /  50  30   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  92  73  95  74 /  60  30  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  98  76  98  77 /  20  -   -   -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  93  74  96  74 /  60  30  10  10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             73  98  75 100  75 /  30  20  -   -    0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  94  73  97  74 /  60  30   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  75  95  76 /  60  50   0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  95  75  98  76 /  50  30  -   -    0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  95  75  98  76 /  40  30  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...EWilliams/Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...04
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 2:34 PM CDT, 8 hours 20 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
234 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-171945-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
234 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across most of south central Texas with the greatest
potential across portions of the Hill Country and Central Texas.
Damaging winds, large hail, an isolated tornado, and locally heavy
rain will all be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hot and humid conditions will return to south central Texas,
especially Wednesday through Friday. Afternoon heat indices on
those dates are likely to reach the 102 to 110 degree range along
the Rio Grande and areas along and east of I-35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed across Central Texas and
the Hill Country this evening and tonight.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 16, 9:43 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
943 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S GEORGETOWN          30.61N 97.68W
06/16/2019  M57 MPH          WILLIAMSON         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EW

Local storm report, Jun 16, 9:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
949 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     HAIL             5 NW MOUNTAIN HOME      30.24N 99.43W
06/16/2019  E1.75 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EW

Local storm report, Jun 16, 9:53 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             5 WSW HARPER            30.27N 99.33W
06/16/2019  E1.00 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EW

Local storm report, Jun 16, 10:03 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1003 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1003 PM     HAIL             4 ENE MOUNTAIN HOME     30.19N 99.32W
06/16/2019  E2.00 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EW

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 10:32 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1032 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ172-173-170415-
Williamson TX-Burnet TX-
1032 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON AND
NORTHERN BURNET COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1031 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Briggs, or 14 miles northeast of Bertram, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Round Rock, Georgetown, Bertram, Serenada, Liberty Hill, Jarrell,
Florence, Weir, Georgetown Dam, Watson, Briggs, Sun City, Lake
Victor, Mahomet, Sunnylane, Joppa, Andice, Shady Grove, Theon and
Walburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3095 9785 3091 9783 3088 9766 3081 9747
      3058 9764 3077 9816 3092 9844 3093 9844
      3092 9842 3094 9841 3095 9845 3098 9844
      3101 9846 3103 9844 3103 9809
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 299DEG 17KT 3089 9789

MO

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 10:37 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1037 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ193-194-209-170445-
Bastrop TX-Fayette TX-Lee TX-
1037 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BASTROP...LEE AND
NORTH CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1037 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paige, or 10 miles northeast of Bastrop, moving east at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bastrop, Giddings, Lexington, Dime Box, Fedor, Paige, Circle D-KC
Estates, Camp Swift, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway, Serbin,
Bastrop State Park, Northrup, Blue, Old Dime Box, Ledbetter, Loebau,
Warda, Hills, Leo and Lincoln.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3018 9676 3016 9679 3015 9678 3002 9682
      3011 9732 3045 9712 3045 9688 3043 9687
      3043 9685 3039 9679 3032 9674 3032 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0337Z 282DEG 20KT 3023 9719

MO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 8:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Williamson	56 min
Jun 16, 8:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Williamson	34 min
Jun 16, 8:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Williamson	66 min
Jun 16, 9:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Lee	51 min
Jun 16, 9:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Gillespie, Kerr	67 min
Jun 16, 10:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	EWX	Gillespie, Kerr	40 min
Jun 16, 10:13 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Williamson	3 hr
Jun 16, 10:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Williamson	43 min
Jun 16, 10:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Lee	68 min
Jun 16, 10:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bandera, Kerr	62 min
Jun 16, 10:58 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bastrop, Lee	3 hr
Jun 16, 11:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Real	24 min
Jun 16, 11:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Williamson	54 min
Jun 16, 11:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Kendall, Kerr, Medina and 1 more	62 min
Jun 16, 11:34 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Burnet, Williamson	3 hr
Jun 16, 11:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Williamson	65 min
Jun 16, 11:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Travis, Williamson	46 min
Jun 17, 12:25 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell	50 min
Jun 17, 12:27 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Medina, Wilson	63 min
Jun 17, 12:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Val Verde	66 min
Jun 17, 1:13 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays, Travis	3 hr
Jun 17, 1:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	Atascosa, Bexar, Caldwell, DeWitt, Gonzales, Guadalupe and 2 more	60 min
Jun 17, 1:26 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bexar	3 hr
Jun 17, 1:31 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bandera	29 min
Jun 17, 1:56 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Caldwell, Guadalupe	3 hr
Jun 17, 2:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	DeWitt, Gonzales, Karnes, Lavaca	53 min
Jun 17, 2:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Fayette	66 min
Jun 17, 2:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EWX	DeWitt, Fayette, Lavaca	49 min
Jun 17, 3:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Burnet	57 min
Jun 17, 5:12 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Gillespie	48 min
Jun 17, 5:36 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Bastrop, Caldwell	3 hr
Jun 17, 6:09 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Blanco	51 min
Jun 17, 7:31 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EWX	Gillespie, Kerr	119 min
Jun 17, 8:08 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bandera, Kendall	67 min
Jun 17, 9:25 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Bexar	65 min
Jun 17, 10:03 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EWX	Atascosa, Karnes	57 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2019 Every flash flood warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.