Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
All area sites are at VFR conditions for at least through 20Z. Around
19Z/20Z, a cluster of storms is forecast to develop over the Hill
Country and move to the east and southeast. HiRes models suggest for
these storms to impact the San Antonio area terminals during that
time frame and have added a TEMPO group with -TSRA for both KSAT and
KSSF. Also, increased wind gusts as models soundings suggest an
inverted V profile. For the Austin sites area, lower confidence with
the cluster of storms has resulted in mentioning VCTS for now. Will
be monitoring closely and making adjustments once the storms get
going.

For KDRT, VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period with
northwest winds prevailing for much of today and shift to the
southeast by Friday morning.

For the I-35 sites, once the storms move out of the area late this
afternoon/early evening, light west to northwest winds and even
light variable winds are forecast for this evening through Friday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/

UPDATE...
Conditions across South Central Texas were temporarily stabilized and
the airmass modified this morning, behind the overnight and early
morning complex of storms. Recovery is expected to take place
through the remainder of the late morning and early afternoon, with
dew points rising back into the upper 60s to low 70s and a weak
southerly low level flow resuming across the southern CWA, as they
remnant outflow boundary to the south washes out. The clearing that
took place may actually allow for slightly faster de-stabilization
this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Most CAMs
are initiating isolated convection between 1PM-3PM roughly in the
vicinity of the Bandera, eastern Kerr, Gillespie, Blanco, Kendall
county region. The storms should then quickly moves east-southeast
through the I-35 corridor during the late afternoon hours, becoming
scattered in coverage. There are some differences with how much more
the coverage increases or becomes organized east of I-35 during the
early evening.

Forecast soundings indicate steep mid level lapse rates of around
7 degC/km yielding SBCAPE and MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg.
Inverted V sounding also evident, indicating DCAPE values of around
1300 J/kg. Deep layer shear values, of nearly 40kts will be present.
So initially supercellular mode may develop with large hail risk and
damaging downburst wind risk over the Hill Country and into the I-35
corridor somewhere between San Antonio and Austin. Overtime cold-
pool development may lead to development of a broken complex east of
I-35 and I-37, with the severe wind threat becoming the main issue.

In terms of flash flooding potential, the overall quick speed of the
system should mitigate widespread concerns. Nevertheless, isolated
heavier downpours could lead to very localized flash flooding
concerns.

FYI...Texas A&M College Station will be conducting a mobile upper air
launch around 1PM near Luling, TX, which should better help sample
the airmass.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail behind overnight convection and do not think
we will see any redevelopment of MVFR ceilings this morning. Focus
then shifts to afternoon convection chances. Latest hi-res model
guidance shows scattered activity this afternoon with some it
possible strong to severe. Given the scattered nature, will just keep
VCTS going for now between 20-23z for the I35 sites. After convection
chances end late this afternoon, VFR is expected to continue tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
An upper level trough moves across the Southern Plains today. A line
of showers and thunderstorms is ongoing across our area. Wind gusts
up to 50 mph and brief heavy downpours have been noted with the line.
The showers and thunderstorms gradually dissipate leaving a surface
boundary. Daytime heating of a moist and very unstable airmass allows
for the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms by midday
over the Hill Country with clusters forming and racing off to the
east-southeast across South Central Texas this afternoon into early
evening. Forecast soundings show CAPE in excess of 3,000 to 4,000
J/kg indicate strong to severe storms are quite possible with wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph and quarter to golf ball size hail the main
threats. Should a strong enough cold pool develop, then wind gusts
in excess of 70 mph are possible. Isolated spots of heavy rain could
lead to localized flash flooding in areas with the heaviest rains
recently. The time of greatest threat for severe storms is from 1 PM
to 8 PM.

The upper level trough moves across the Mississippi Valley on Friday.
A combination of an impulse rotating around the trough, a surface
boundary, and daytime heating may allow showers and thunderstorms to
develop. However, warming mid level temperatures will cap the airmass
and only isolated coverage, at best, is expected. There is marginal
risk of a strong to severe storm.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Mid level ridging brings the first significant heat wave of the
season this weekend with well above normal temperatures expected all
areas. San Antonio metro will see their first 100 degree highs of
the year while Austin metro will get close. Lower levels remain moist
from recent rains, so heat index values of around 110 in some areas
will likely cause the issuance of Heat Advisories for at least parts
of our area.

The passage of the an upper level trough across the northern tier of
states, then merging with an upper level trough over the southeastern
states will enable a cold front to move across our area Sunday night
into Monday. The heat wave abruptly ends with temperatures dropping
below normal along with bringing much lower dewpoints for early to
middle of next week. Weak mid level impulses in the northwesterly
flow aloft may generate isolated showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  95  73  97  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  96  73  97  75 /  10  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  98  73  98  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            71  93  70  96  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           73 100  75 103  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  94  71  96  75 /  10  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73 102  75 104  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  98  73  99  75 /  10  -    0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  96  74  99  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  99  75 100  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75 100  75 103  77 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
315 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071200-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
315 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

There is currently a slight to enhanced risk for scattered severe
storms Thursday afternoon and early evening across the Hill
Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor. The primary
window for severe storms looks to be 1PM to 8PM. Quarter to
golfball sized hail and damaging winds gusts in excess of 60 mph
will be the main threats with any severe storms. There is a low
risk of some isolated storms producing significant straight-line
wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and large hail in excess of
golfball sized. Also, isolated pockets of heavy rainfall leading
to localized flash flooding will be possible from the stronger
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected over the area Friday
through Sunday. Heat indices are forecast to reach 105 to 110
degrees across many areas Saturday and Sunday, with slightly lower
values expected over the Hill Country. A heat advisory may be
needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

TXZ186-189-061845-
Kerr TX-Kendall TX-
1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KERR AND
NORTHWESTERN KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 1257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kerrville-Schreiner Park, or near Kerrville, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kerrville, Comfort, Walnut Grove, Camp Verde, Kerrville-Schreiner
Park, Sisterdale, Kreutzberg, Cypress Creek, Welfare, Nelson City,
Center Point, Waring and Crown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 9917 3002 9916 3008 9867 2984 9868
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 271DEG 22KT 2996 9910

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
142 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

TXZ186-189-061930-
Kerr TX-Kendall TX-
142 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL KERR AND CENTRAL
KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 141 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Comfort, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Comfort, Sisterdale, Waring, Welfare and Crown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2991 9896 3005 9896 3009 9856 2986 9855
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 271DEG 23KT 2996 9890

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
207 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             3 NNW LUCKENBACH        30.22N 98.78W
06/06/2019  E0.75 INCH       GILLESPIE          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CVP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>