Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
239 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Convection has develop across the Hill Country this afternoon as
convective inhibition eroded and convective temperatures where
reached. The convection has developed in a weak low level convergent
zone. This activity is expected to move east into portions of the
I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Austin through the remainder of
the afternoon and early evening, then east of the I-35 corridor mid
evening.

Forecast soundings indicate steep mid level lapse rates of around
7 degC/km yielding SBCAPE and MLCAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg.
Inverted V sounding also evident, indicating DCAPE values of around
1300 J/kg. Deep layer shear values, of nearly 40kts will be present.
So initially supercellular mode will continue across the Hill
Country and into the I-35 corridor. Over time cold-pool development
may lead to development of a broken complex east of I-35 and I-37,
with the severe wind threat becoming the main issue this evening.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of the Hill
Country and along and east of I-35 through 10 PM.

In terms of flash flooding potential, the overall quick speed of the
system should mitigate widespread concerns. Nevertheless, isolated
heavier downpours could lead to very localized flash flooding
concerns.

Convection should move east and south of the area overnight. Warm
and dry conditions are forecast for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
A ridge will build over South Central Texas over the weekend leading
to very warm temperatures. Temperatures in the mid and upper 90s are
forecast over the Hill Country and Central Texas, upper 90s to 102
around the San Antonio metro and southeast, and 100 to 107 along the
Rio Grande. With recent rainfall, near surface moisture will keep
heat index values elevated, into Heat Advisory criteria for several
locations. A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for a portion of the
area.

A trough moving through the Central Plains Sunday night into Monday
will weaken the ridge from the north. This will allow a cold front
to enter the region, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms
and cooler temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  93  72  96  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  94  71  95  73 /  20  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  96  71  97  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            68  91  69  95  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           72 100  75 102  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  92  69  95  73 /  20  -    0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             70 101  73 101  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  96  71  97  73 /  20  -    0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  95  72  96  74 /  20  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  98  74  98  77 /  20   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  98  75 100  77 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Runyen
Public Service/Data Collection...33

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071945-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
242 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

There is currently a slight to enhanced risk for scattered severe
storms this afternoon through the early evening across the Hill
Country and along and east of the I-35 corridor. Quarter to
golfball sized hail and damaging winds gusts in excess of 60 mph
will be the main threats with any severe storms. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been issued through 10 PM this evening.
Also, isolated pockets of heavy rainfall leading to localized
flash flooding will be possible from the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected over the area Friday
through Sunday. Heat indices are forecast to reach 105 to 110
degrees across many areas Saturday and Sunday, with slightly lower
values expected over the Hill Country. A heat advisory may be
needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter reports may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
459 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

TXZ207-223-062245-
Guadalupe TX-Gonzales TX-
459 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND WEST
CENTRAL GONZALES COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 459 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Seguin, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seguin, Belmont, Leesville and Zipp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2953 9805 2961 9800 2957 9756 2931 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 294DEG 21KT 2955 9797

PLATT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
503 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW LA GRANGE         29.89N 96.92W
06/06/2019                   FAYETTE            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE OAK TREES BLOWN DOWN.

&&

CVP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
523 PM CDT THU JUN 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LA GRANGE               29.91N 96.88W
06/06/2019                   FAYETTE            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS
            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF LA
            GRANGE.

&&

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