Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

790 
WWUS54 KEWX 092024
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
324 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXC137-385-092100-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-190509T2100Z/
Edwards TX-Real TX-
324 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS AND NORTHWESTERN REAL COUNTIES...

At 324 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Rocksprings to 16 miles west of
Barksdale, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Rocksprings, Vance, Barksdale and Devil's Sinkhole State Natural
Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 10005 2996 9982 2965 10005 2967 10054
      2990 10056
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 263DEG 13KT 2996 10032 2975 10031 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

YB

103 
WWUS54 KEWX 092036
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
336 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXC137-385-092100-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-190509T2100Z/
Edwards TX-Real TX-
336 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN EDWARDS AND NORTHWESTERN REAL COUNTIES...

At 335 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Rocksprings to 14 miles west of Barksdale, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Rocksprings, Vance, Barksdale and Devil's Sinkhole State Natural
Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 10005 2996 9982 2965 10005 2967 10041
      2989 10042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 263DEG 13KT 2996 10028 2975 10027 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

YB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1255 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

.AVIATION...
Skies are mostly VFR across South Central Texas, with a few sites
like SSF holding on to MVFR ceilings. Clouds are scattered across the
region but with a prefrontal outflow across Central Texas and the
front approaching the Hill Country ceilings should remain VFR through
the afternoon.

As the front progresses southward through the afternoon and evening
scattered showers and storms are expected to develop. As activity
will be scattered have kept all mention of precipitation in the TAFs
currently to VCSH or VCTS, but updates will be made this afternoon as
timing and impacts of storms to the terminal come into better focus.

Precipitation at the terminals should come to an end between 04z and
06z just in time for ceilings to begin to lower to MVFR and then IFR
by 10z Friday morning. Ceilings will be slow to rise Friday morning.
More scattered showers and storms are expected to develop during the
day on Friday so VCTS was reintroduced by 18z at all of the I-35
terminals tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1047 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019/

UPDATE...
The cold front looks to be a bit ahead of schedule this morning with
the leading edge seen on latest visible satellite imagery as a
gravity wave in the northern portions of our area. The NAM probably
has the best depiction of the quicker timing as well as the latest
HRRR. This could slightly shift the threat for the strongest storms a
bit south. CAPE values in excess of 5000 J/kg and adequate shear will
allow for 2"+ hail to be possible in addition to a straight line wind
threat. SPC has upgraded areas south of a Del Rio to Austin line to
a slight risk. Although severe weather will remain possible in the
entire slight risk area, think locations along or near our southern
border with CRP will have the best chances for severe weather today.
Rainfall amounts could be as high as 2"+ within the heavier
convective cells mainly south of I10/Highway90 today. This locally
heavy rainfall could cause additional flooding concerns late this
afternoon and tonight where this occurs.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Mostly quiet this early morning across South Central Texas. A large
MCS is ongoing across portions of East Texas, northern Louisiana,
and into southern Arkansas. Across our region, fog has developed as
we have near 100 percent RH with light winds and saturated soils. For
now, will hold off on issuing a dense fog advisory, but trends will
be monitored as we head toward sunrise. Temperatures are quite warm,
ranging from the low to mid 70s, due to the cloud cover and high
humidity.

Taking a look at the CONUS, the primary upper level
low exists across Minnesota with broad longwave troughing across much
of the central and western CONUS. The most recent surface analysis
shows the cold front draped across north and west Texas from Wichita
Falls southwest toward Midland. This cold front will continue to trek
southeast toward the region today, reaching the I-35 corridor to US
Highway 90 (essentially right along the Balcones Escarpment) by
early afternoon today before its progression slows a bit, but the
cold front should reach the Gulf Coast near Corpus by around midnight
tonight.

Today will be intriguing to watch unfold. Instability will
be plentiful, with CAPE values near 5000 J/kg in the afternoon across
much of the southern and eastern counties of the CWA. Deep layer
shear should be sufficient to support well organized storms. Some of
the high resolution CAMs show isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing this afternoon, primarily across the aforementioned
southern and eastern portions of the region. SPC has highlighted Lee,
Bastrop, eastern Guadalupe, Fayette, Gonzales, and Lavaca Counties
within a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong
thunderstorms winds being the primary threats. Almost the entirety of
the remainder of the region is included within the marginal risk
area.

Additionally, moist atmospheric profiles with PWATs ranging from 1.7
to 1.9 across the southeastern areas out ahead of the cold front
will support locally heavy rainfall. As such, WPC has the region
within varying degrees of an excessive rainfall risk. The marginal
risk area encapsulates counties from Williamson County southwest
toward Maverick County. The slight risk exists from Lee/Fayette
southwest to Dimmit County, and includes portions of the I-35
corridor from near Buda south through San Antonio and toward
Pearsall. The moderate risk for excessive rainfall includes portions
of Fayette, Gonzales, and Karnes Counties and the entirety of Dewitt
and Lavaca County. A Flash Flood Watch will go into effect at 1 pm
this afternoon for counties essentially east of US Highway 83 (except
for Frio County) and will continue through 7 pm Saturday. The areas
most at risk for flash flooding will be areas that have seen
impressive rainfall amounts over the past few days and weeks,
especially the Austin metro and portions of the eastern Hill Country.
Fortunately, high resolution guidance (SPC HREF) seems to keep most
of the heavier rainfall totals east of these areas today.

The surface cold front appears to likely stall out essentially along
the Texas Gulf Coast by late tonight into early Friday morning, but
the 925 mb and 850 mb front should remain draped across the region. A
smaller disturbance embedded within the main southwest flow aloft
translates through the region overnight tonight into Friday morning.
This is expected to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms
across the region. This should be more of a locally heavy rainfall
threat and not much of a severe weather threat. WPC shows a slight
risk for excessive rainfall in the 24 hour period from 7 am Friday
through 7 am Saturday for areas along and east of a Llano to
Pleasanton line and a moderate risk for Lavaca and Fayette.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...
The train of smaller scale disturbances embedded within the upper
level southwesterly flow continues to roll on Saturday, with another
round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms likely
across the region with locally heavy rainfall possible. Showers and
thunderstorms should push off to the east by after 7 pm Saturday.
From now through 7 pm Saturday, we are looking at 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall across the eastern Hill Country and I-35 corridor with 4 to
6 inches possible for areas east of I-35 across the Coastal Plains.
Locally higher amounts will be possible. Given the atmospheric
conditions, these showers and storms should be very efficient
rainmakers and will have the ability to drop a lot of rain in a short
period of time. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will likely
cause major problems for portions of the eastern Hill Country and
Austin area that have seen heavy rain the past few days.

We should finally get a breather from the rainfall Saturday evening
through Monday morning as we get a brief period of zonal flow aloft.
However, by Monday morning, another upper level low across northern
Mexico/the Desert Southwest comes east toward the region and into
North Texas by Wednesday. This will reintroduce chances for showers
and thunderstorms for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              86  56  66  60  74 /  30  50  70  80  80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  57  66  60  75 /  40  70  70  80  80
New Braunfels Muni Airport     84  58  67  59  76 /  40  70  70  80  70
Burnet Muni Airport            82  53  63  57  72 /  20  40  60  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           88  59  67  59  79 /  30  60  60  70  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  54  63  59  73 /  30  40  70  80  80
Hondo Muni Airport             87  59  68  59  77 /  40  70  60  70  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        85  56  65  59  74 /  40  70  70  80  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   85  60  70  64  78 /  50  80  80  80  80
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  58  68  61  78 /  40  70  60  70  70
Stinson Muni Airport           84  60  70  62  78 /  50  70  70  80  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for Atascosa-Bandera-
Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-
Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Lee-
Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Aviation...Treadway
Short-Term/Long-Term...Hampshire
Hydro...Lenz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
525 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-101030-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
525 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop today and continue into
tonight. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for areas generally east
of US Highway 83 from 1 PM today through Saturday evening. Locally
heavy rains combined with saturated soils due to recent heavy
rains will lead to flash flooding and possibly additional river
flooding. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue Friday through
Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Saturday
evening with the threat of locally heavy rains and flooding
continuing. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible Friday and
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any severe weather or flooding to the National Weather
Service.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
127 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     HAIL             10 N LEAKEY             29.87N 99.77W
05/09/2019  E1.00 INCH       REAL               TX   COCORAHS

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
130 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXZ204-219-091915-
Frio TX-Medina TX-
130 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MEDINA AND NORTH
CENTRAL FRIO COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 129 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of North Pearsall, or 9 miles northwest of Pearsall,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Devine, Moore, Yancey and Biry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2894 9916 2900 9925 2929 9906 2913 9885
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 222DEG 21KT 2902 9916

AAT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
146 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     HAIL             2 ESE KERRVILLE-SCHREIN 30.00N 99.10W
05/09/2019  E1.25 INCH       KERR               TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR
            SIZED HAIL SE OF DOWNTOWN KERRVILLE.

&&

AAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
159 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXZ186-187-091945-
Kerr TX-Bandera TX-
159 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BANDERA AND CENTRAL
KERR COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 158 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lost Maples State Natural Area, or 10 miles north of Vanderpool,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lost Maples State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2996 9910 2976 9950 2985 9961 2988 9960
      3008 9944
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 230DEG 12KT 2989 9952

AAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
226 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXZ183-184-092015-
Val Verde TX-Edwards TX-
226 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND EASTERN
VAL VERDE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles northeast of Loma Alta to 10 miles east
of Carta Valley. Movement was east at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rocksprings and Us-277 Near The Sutton-Edwards County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3029 10039 2988 10008 2976 10060 3006 10085
      3029 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 270DEG 12KT 3002 10071 2983 10050

HUFFMAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXZ186-188-092015-
Gillespie TX-Kerr TX-
234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KERR AND WESTERN
GILLESPIE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mountain Home, or 11 miles northwest of Kerrville, moving east at 10
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ingram, Hunt, Tivydale, Mountain Home and Harper.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3011 9897 3007 9936 3021 9941 3029 9931
      3029 9930 3030 9930 3046 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 250DEG 10KT 3015 9930

HUFFMAN