Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

311 
WWUS54 KEWX 091237
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
737 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXC271-323-091246-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0089.000000T0000Z-190509T1300Z/
Kinney TX-Maverick TX-
737 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KINNEY AND
NORTHERN MAVERICK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. Some pea sized hail may 
be possible as the storm collapses. 

LAT...LON 2894 10065 2900 10065 2909 10067 2911 10069
      2912 10071 2915 10074 2917 10077 2920 10077
      2920 10078 2939 10040 2898 10018 2892 10063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1236Z 245DEG 19KT 2914 10057 

$$

AAT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
616 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA have already developed in the VCNTY of KDRT and have gone
with a TEMPO early this morning. SHRA/TSRA become more widespread
today into tonight. Beyond the TEMPO at KDRT, have only gone with
VCSH/VCTS at the sites due to uncertainty on timing of direct
impacts. A mix of LIFR/IFR at the TAF sites will linger into mid
morning with variable winds around 5 KTs. Boundary layer gets mixed
ahead of the cold front with conditions rising to MVFR mid morning,
then VFR after the frontal passage late morning into early afternoon
with winds becoming north to northeast around 10 KTs. Conditions will
lower to MVFR this evening as winds increase to 10 to 20 KTs with
higher gusts. Some restrictions to VSBY can be expected in SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Mostly quiet this early morning across South Central Texas. A large
MCS is ongoing across portions of East Texas, northern Louisiana,
and into southern Arkansas. Across our region, fog has developed as
we have near 100 percent RH with light winds and saturated soils. For
now, will hold off on issuing a dense fog advisory, but trends will
be monitored as we head toward sunrise. Temperatures are quite warm,
ranging from the low to mid 70s, due to the cloud cover and high
humidity.

Taking a look at the CONUS, the primary upper level
low exists across Minnesota with broad longwave troughing across much
of the central and western CONUS. The most recent surface analysis
shows the cold front draped across north and west Texas from Wichita
Falls southwest toward Midland. This cold front will continue to trek
southeast toward the region today, reaching the I-35 corridor to US
Highway 90 (essentially right along the Balcones Escarpment) by
early afternoon today before its progression slows a bit, but the
cold front should reach the Gulf Coast near Corpus by around midnight
tonight.

Today will be intriguing to watch unfold. Instability will
be plentiful, with CAPE values near 5000 J/kg in the afternoon across
much of the southern and eastern counties of the CWA. Deep layer
shear should be sufficient to support well organized storms. Some of
the high resolution CAMs show isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing this afternoon, primarily across the aforementioned
southern and eastern portions of the region. SPC has highlighted Lee,
Bastrop, eastern Guadalupe, Fayette, Gonzales, and Lavaca Counties
within a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong
thunderstorms winds being the primary threats. Almost the entirety of
the remainder of the region is included within the marginal risk
area.

Additionally, moist atmospheric profiles with PWATs ranging from 1.7
to 1.9 across the southeastern areas out ahead of the cold front
will support locally heavy rainfall. As such, WPC has the region
within varying degrees of an excessive rainfall risk. The marginal
risk area encapsulates counties from Williamson County southwest
toward Maverick County. The slight risk exists from Lee/Fayette
southwest to Dimmit County, and includes portions of the I-35
corridor from near Buda south through San Antonio and toward
Pearsall. The moderate risk for excessive rainfall includes portions
of Fayette, Gonzales, and Karnes Counties and the entirety of Dewitt
and Lavaca County. A Flash Flood Watch will go into effect at 1 pm
this afternoon for counties essentially east of US Highway 83 (except
for Frio County) and will continue through 7 pm Saturday. The areas
most at risk for flash flooding will be areas that have seen
impressive rainfall amounts over the past few days and weeks,
especially the Austin metro and portions of the eastern Hill Country.
Fortunately, high resolution guidance (SPC HREF) seems to keep most
of the heavier rainfall totals east of these areas today.

The surface cold front appears to likely stall out essentially along
the Texas Gulf Coast by late tonight into early Friday morning, but
the 925 mb and 850 mb front should remain draped across the region. A
smaller disturbance embedded within the main southwest flow aloft
translates through the region overnight tonight into Friday morning.
This is expected to generate widespread showers and thunderstorms
across the region. This should be more of a locally heavy rainfall
threat and not much of a severe weather threat. WPC shows a slight
risk for excessive rainfall in the 24 hour period from 7 am Friday
through 7 am Saturday for areas along and east of a Llano to
Pleasanton line and a moderate risk for Lavaca and Fayette.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Wednesday)...
The train of smaller scale disturbances embedded within the upper
level southwesterly flow continues to roll on Saturday, with another
round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms likely
across the region with locally heavy rainfall possible. Showers and
thunderstorms should push off to the east by after 7 pm Saturday.
From now through 7 pm Saturday, we are looking at 2 to 4 inches of
rainfall across the eastern Hill Country and I-35 corridor with 4 to
6 inches possible for areas east of I-35 across the Coastal Plains.
Locally higher amounts will be possible. Given the atmospheric
conditions, these showers and storms should be very efficient
rainmakers and will have the ability to drop a lot of rain in a short
period of time. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will likely
cause major problems for portions of the eastern Hill Country and
Austin area that have seen heavy rain the past few days.

We should finally get a breather from the rainfall Saturday evening
through Monday morning as we get a brief period of zonal flow aloft.
However, by Monday morning, another upper level low across northern
Mexico/the Desert Southwest comes east toward the region and into
North Texas by Wednesday. This will reintroduce chances for showers
and thunderstorms for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              57  67  61  75  60 /  60  70  80  80  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  57  67  61  75  60 /  70  70  80  80  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  67  61  75  60 /  70  70  80  70  20
Burnet Muni Airport            53  64  58  71  58 /  50  60  70  60  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  69  60  78  61 /  60  60  70  20  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        54  66  60  73  59 /  60  70  80  80  20
Hondo Muni Airport             59  69  61  77  60 /  70  60  70  50  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        57  68  61  75  60 /  70  70  80  80  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   61  72  65  77  63 /  70  80  80  80  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  68  61  76  61 /  70  60  70  70  10
Stinson Muni Airport           60  68  63  76  63 /  70  70  80  70  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Saturday
evening for Atascosa-Bandera-Bastrop-Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-
Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Gillespie-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-
Kendall-Kerr-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

Aviation...04
Short-Term/Long-Term...BMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
525 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-101030-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
525 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop today and continue into
tonight. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for areas generally east
of US Highway 83 from 1 PM today through Saturday evening. Locally
heavy rains combined with saturated soils due to recent heavy
rains will lead to flash flooding and possibly additional river
flooding. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are also
possible with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue Friday through
Wednesday. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Saturday
evening with the threat of locally heavy rains and flooding
continuing. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible Friday and
Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any severe weather or flooding to the National Weather
Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
659 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

TXZ202-217-091245-
Maverick TX-Kinney TX-
659 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KINNEY AND NORTHERN
MAVERICK COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

At 659 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Quemado, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brackettville, Spofford, Quemado, Anacacho, Darling, Fort Clark
Springs and Laughlin AFB Aux Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2894 10065 2900 10065 2903 10066 2909 10067
      2911 10069 2912 10072 2915 10074 2917 10078
      2920 10077 2920 10078 2939 10040 2898 10018
      2892 10063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1159Z 245DEG 19KT 2905 10078

CP