Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
643 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

.UPDATE...
12Z Aviation forecast below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings through the morning hours becoming VFR in the afternoon
outside of convection. Scattered SHRAs and TSTMs will remain focused
through the morning near the frontal boundary draped from near
3T5-SSF-DRT. A few strong to severe storms are possible. Focus for
storms later this afternoon and tonight may occur near the Rio Grande
and northwest Hill Country. Winds turning NE to E around 5-10 kts
through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
A weakening frontal zone over Central TX is generating scattered
storms along outflows with isolated severe storms possible. CAPE
values of 2-3 kJ/kg and shear values below 40 knots where the leading
edge of activity exist leads only to a marginal threat for severe
for this morning. Later this afternoon, convergent boundaries and
increased CAPEs from daytime heating will lead to a slightly higher
potential for severe activity, mainly west of a Fredericksburg to
Carrizo Springs line through this evening. Temperatures this
afternoon should take a 2 or 3 degree step back from those of
Wednesday thanks mostly to a chaotic sky containing clouds at various
elevations. About half of the CAM models generate a small nighttime
storm complex and track it east toward the I-35 corridor overnight,
but timing and locations are still to random to warrant much more
than a 30 percent chance of rain. Higher PoPs will remain to the west
and southeast where surface convergence remains present along the
washing out frontal boundary. The elevated moist layer begins to lift
north Friday, keeping most of the deeper daytime convection north of
Hwy 90 for Friday, while temperatures still benefit from low level
instability and some spotty showers across most areas.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
While models still suggest a fair amount of mid level moisture over
South-central TX for Saturday, the axis of highest moisture and
instability will have shifted well to the west to keep storm
initiation tied to the higher terrain over Mexico and West TX. At the
same time mid-level ridging amplifies over Central TX to reduce
instability aloft. Pwat values remain 1.5 to 2.0, so the chance of an
isolated shower can't be ruled out, but coverage should be below 10
percent.

Sunday through Tuesday should be a fairly dormant pattern with
gradually decreasing Pwat values and mid to upper level ridging
continuing to build. The amplitude of the mid level ridging gets
sharp along a N-S axis on Tuesday which could signal the next
opportunity for the area to see a stormy pattern to follow. On the
west side of this trimming mid-level axis, tropical moisture is
depicted to collect over Mexico from both the Pacific an the Wrn
Gulf and push north into W TX. A broad monsoon-like pattern develops
over NM/W TX Wednesday, and this leaves the models breaking down
mid-level height fields into a broad upper troughing feature over the
NM/Mexico border by most accounts on late Wednesday. The ECM/CMC
solutions go a bit too aggressive with the ridge breakdown and would
expect to see the more moderate GFS solution. Would expect to see 2
to 3 days of at least 30 percent daytime PoPs and a curbing of max
temps by a couple degrees between Wednesday and next Saturday, from
this loose pattern. Will keep the Wed-Thu forecasts conservative with
mainly 20s and 30s on PoPs and wait for models to converge on more
mesoscale features.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  70  86  72  91 /  30  30  40  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  71  86  72  91 /  30  30  40  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  71  86  72  90 /  40  20  30  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            83  67  83  70  89 /  20  30  40  -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  72  88  74  91 /  40  50  30  20  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  68  85  71  90 /  20  30  40  -   20
Hondo Muni Airport             90  72  89  73  91 /  20  30  20  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  71  87  72  91 /  40  20  30  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  72  88  74  93 /  40  20  30  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  72  88  73  91 /  40  20  30  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           88  73  88  74  90 /  40  20  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...Runyen
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
439 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-310945-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
439 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight west of a Fredericksburg to Castroville to Catarina line.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats,
and most of the strong storms are expected to occur between 3 pm
and 3 am.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday evening.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1108 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ183-301645-
Val Verde TX-
1108 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL
1145 AM CDT...

At 1108 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Seminole Canyon State Park, or 11 miles southwest of
Comstock, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Comstock, Shumla, Box Canyon, Seminole Canyon State Park, Amistad
Acres, Pafford Crossing, Amistad Recreation Area - Pecos River Boat
Ramp and Devils River SNA - Big Satan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2990 10136 2970 10097 2951 10117 2952 10125
      2962 10125 2963 10126 2962 10128 2958 10128
      2957 10129 2959 10131 2965 10130 2966 10135
      2965 10136 2970 10137 2971 10140 2974 10141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 207DEG 22KT 2957 10131

HUFFMAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1150 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ183-301730-
Val Verde TX-
1150 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1150 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Comstock, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Juno and Bakers Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10126 3029 10086 2977 10110 2981 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 195DEG 21KT 2987 10119

HUFFMAN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1232 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ183-301815-
Val Verde TX-
1232 PM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1232 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pandale, or 23 miles north of Langtry, moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pandale and Hackberry Crossing.

LAT...LON 3029 10168 3029 10142 3008 10151 3010 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 1732Z 197DEG 15KT 3015 10163

BMW