Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

358 
WGUS74 KEWX 301451
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
951 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXC021-055-301500-
/O.EXP.KEWX.FF.W.0016.000000T0000Z-190530T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caldwell TX-Bastrop TX-
951 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CALDWELL AND
SOUTHWESTERN BASTROP COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1000 AM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3002 9758 2997 9737 2989 9749 2989 9768
      2994 9771

$$

YB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
643 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

.UPDATE...
12Z Aviation forecast below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings through the morning hours becoming VFR in the afternoon
outside of convection. Scattered SHRAs and TSTMs will remain focused
through the morning near the frontal boundary draped from near
3T5-SSF-DRT. A few strong to severe storms are possible. Focus for
storms later this afternoon and tonight may occur near the Rio Grande
and northwest Hill Country. Winds turning NE to E around 5-10 kts
through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
A weakening frontal zone over Central TX is generating scattered
storms along outflows with isolated severe storms possible. CAPE
values of 2-3 kJ/kg and shear values below 40 knots where the leading
edge of activity exist leads only to a marginal threat for severe
for this morning. Later this afternoon, convergent boundaries and
increased CAPEs from daytime heating will lead to a slightly higher
potential for severe activity, mainly west of a Fredericksburg to
Carrizo Springs line through this evening. Temperatures this
afternoon should take a 2 or 3 degree step back from those of
Wednesday thanks mostly to a chaotic sky containing clouds at various
elevations. About half of the CAM models generate a small nighttime
storm complex and track it east toward the I-35 corridor overnight,
but timing and locations are still to random to warrant much more
than a 30 percent chance of rain. Higher PoPs will remain to the west
and southeast where surface convergence remains present along the
washing out frontal boundary. The elevated moist layer begins to lift
north Friday, keeping most of the deeper daytime convection north of
Hwy 90 for Friday, while temperatures still benefit from low level
instability and some spotty showers across most areas.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
While models still suggest a fair amount of mid level moisture over
South-central TX for Saturday, the axis of highest moisture and
instability will have shifted well to the west to keep storm
initiation tied to the higher terrain over Mexico and West TX. At the
same time mid-level ridging amplifies over Central TX to reduce
instability aloft. Pwat values remain 1.5 to 2.0, so the chance of an
isolated shower can't be ruled out, but coverage should be below 10
percent.

Sunday through Tuesday should be a fairly dormant pattern with
gradually decreasing Pwat values and mid to upper level ridging
continuing to build. The amplitude of the mid level ridging gets
sharp along a N-S axis on Tuesday which could signal the next
opportunity for the area to see a stormy pattern to follow. On the
west side of this trimming mid-level axis, tropical moisture is
depicted to collect over Mexico from both the Pacific an the Wrn
Gulf and push north into W TX. A broad monsoon-like pattern develops
over NM/W TX Wednesday, and this leaves the models breaking down
mid-level height fields into a broad upper troughing feature over the
NM/Mexico border by most accounts on late Wednesday. The ECM/CMC
solutions go a bit too aggressive with the ridge breakdown and would
expect to see the more moderate GFS solution. Would expect to see 2
to 3 days of at least 30 percent daytime PoPs and a curbing of max
temps by a couple degrees between Wednesday and next Saturday, from
this loose pattern. Will keep the Wed-Thu forecasts conservative with
mainly 20s and 30s on PoPs and wait for models to converge on more
mesoscale features.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  70  86  72  91 /  30  30  40  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  86  71  86  72  91 /  30  30  40  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     85  71  86  72  90 /  40  20  30  -   10
Burnet Muni Airport            83  67  83  70  89 /  20  30  40  -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           89  72  88  74  91 /  40  50  30  20  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        85  68  85  71  90 /  20  30  40  -   20
Hondo Muni Airport             90  72  89  73  91 /  20  30  20  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  71  87  72  91 /  40  20  30  -   10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  72  88  74  93 /  40  20  30  -   10
San Antonio Intl Airport       88  72  88  73  91 /  40  20  30  -   10
Stinson Muni Airport           88  73  88  74  90 /  40  20  20  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Aviation...Runyen
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
439 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-310945-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
439 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight west of a Fredericksburg to Castroville to Catarina line.
Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats,
and most of the strong storms are expected to occur between 3 pm
and 3 am.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
427 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ193-301000-
Bastrop TX-
427 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTY UNTIL 500
AM CDT...

At 426 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wyldwood, or 9 miles west of Bastrop, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bastrop, Camp Swift, Circle D-KC Estates, Wyldwood, Webberville,
Phelan, Bastrop State Park and Hills Prairie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3003 9725 3011 9755 3017 9754 3020 9750
      3025 9747 3026 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 275DEG 22KT 3015 9745

RUNYEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
530 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ193-194-209-301130-
Bastrop TX-Fayette TX-Lee TX-
530 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BASTROP...
SOUTHEASTERN LEE AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

At 530 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Paige to 13 miles
northwest of La Grange to near Smithville. Movement was east at 20
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
La Grange, Smithville, Fayetteville, Round Top, Muldoon, Carmine,
Swiss Alp, Rutersville, Northrup, Warrenton, Ledbetter, Waldeck,
Plum, Buescher State Park, Ammannsville, Hills, Mullins Prairie,
Nechanitz and Serbin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2982 9669 2972 9679 2989 9730 3003 9720
      3019 9714 3019 9675 3016 9679 3014 9677
      3015 9671 3017 9669 3015 9668 3014 9665
      3013 9665 3011 9663 3004 9662 2996 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 280DEG 17KT 3012 9705 3002 9706 2993 9717

RUNYEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
531 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BASTROP                 30.11N 97.31W
05/30/2019                   BASTROP            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES
            REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 95 AND
            CHESTNUT ST.

&&

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
557 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ183-301130-
Val Verde TX-
557 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 630 AM CDT...

At 556 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Amistad Recreation Area - Long Point, or 12 miles north of Del Rio,
moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Amistad Recreation Area - Long Point, Devils Shores, Amistad
Recreation Area - 277 North Campground, Amistad Recreation Area -
Rough Canyon, Amistad Recreation Area - 277 South Boat Ramp and
Devils River SNA - Big Satan.

LAT...LON 2946 10085 2951 10100 2975 10096 2966 10071
TIME...MOT...LOC 1056Z 208DEG 15KT 2954 10092

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
621 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ183-184-301215-
Val Verde TX-Edwards TX-
621 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL EDWARDS AND EAST
CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

At 621 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Carta Valley, or 16 miles southwest of Loma Alta,
moving north at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Loma Alta, Pafford Crossing, Vinegarone, Devils River SNA - Big Satan
and Devils River SNA - Del Norte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2960 10081 2966 10101 3011 10089 3002 10059
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 198DEG 23KT 2970 10089

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
627 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

TXZ183-202-301230-
Kinney TX-Val Verde TX-
627 AM CDT Thu May 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN KINNEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
VAL VERDE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM CDT...

At 627 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Standart, or 14 miles west of Brackettville, moving north at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Del Rio, Standart, Alamo Village, Amanda, Laughlin AFB and Val Verde
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2973 10075 2970 10070 2962 10070 2962 10053
      2951 10031 2916 10058 2938 10093
TIME...MOT...LOC 1127Z 198DEG 23KT 2927 10065

MO