Alert archive / Texas / River Flood Warnings in 2019
River Flood Warning 33, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued this river flood warning at Jun 4, 2019, 11:59 AM CDT for Uvalde County, Texas. It took effect at Jun 4, 2019, 3:55 PM CDT. It was in force for 36 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 4, 2019, 11:59 AM CDT (16:59 UTC)
- In effect from
- Jun 4, 2019, 3:55 PM CDT
- Expired
- Jun 6, 2019, 4:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 36 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Uvalde County, TX
The radar
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Nueces River below Uvalde (UVLT2).
- Action stage
- 10 ft
- Minor stage
- 11 ft
- Moderate stage
- 15 ft
- Major stage
- 17 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 08192000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
431
WGUS44 KEWX 041659
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued
a flood warning for the...
Nueces River
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast
values, forecast river stages will change.
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.weather.gov/ewx.
&&
TXC463-051059-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FL.W.0033.190604T2055Z-190606T0900Z/
/UVLT2.1.ER.190604T2055Z.190605T1300Z.190605T2100Z.UU/
1159 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Nueces River Below Uvalde.
* from Tuesday afternoon to late Wednesday night...or until the warning is
cancelled.
* At 11:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 2.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast. Higher flood stages may be observed. Continue to listen
for the latest forecast this afternoon and ovenright. All campers and visitors along
the river should remain alert and be ready to seek higher ground if necessary.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and continue to rise
to near 13.3 feet by Wednesday morning.The river will fall below flood stage by
wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding with livestock cut off and equipment
destroyed in lowest areas of the flood plain. Secondary roads and low bridges
are dangerous to auto traffic above Barksdale to below Carrizo Springs. All
campers and visitors along the river should remain alert and be ready to seek
higher ground if necessary.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Uvalde 10 11 2.7 Tue 11 AM 12.6 5.7 3.1 3.0 2.9
&&
LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
2848 9975 2880 9985
$$6 follow-up statements
887
WGUS84 KEWX 041909
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
209 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...
Nueces River At Laguna Affecting Uvalde County
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
West Nueces River At Brackettville Affecting Kinney and Uvalde Counties
Nueces River Below Uvalde Affecting Uvalde County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast
values, the forecast river stages will change.
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.weather.gov/ewx.
&&
TXC271-463-051308-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0031.190605T0146Z-190605T1610Z/
/BTVT2.1.ER.190605T0146Z.190605T0200Z.190605T0410Z.NO/
209 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
The flood warning continues for
the West Nueces River At Brackettville.
* At 1:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 1.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage Tuesday evening and continue to rise to near
15.2 feet Tuesday night. The river will fall below flood stage late Tuesday
night.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding is over one hundred twenty
yards wide at the gauge in one channel, and a second channel is fifteen yards
wide. Secondary roads and crossings near the river are flooded and dangerous
to motorists.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Brackettville 9 15 1.6 Tue 01 PM 7.5 4.2 3.1 2.9 2.7
&&
LAT...LON 2946 10027 2952 10022 2944 10003 2926 9998
2931 10013 2942 10012
$$
TXC463-041939-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0032.000000T0000Z-190605T0803Z/
/UVAT2.1.ER.190604T1652Z.190604T1715Z.190604T1724Z.NO/
209 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
The flood warning is cancelled for
the Nueces River At Laguna.
* At 1:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 7.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested and will continue to fall to 3.3 feet Wednesday
morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding reaches low water crossings on
Highway 55 above Barksdale on Hackberry Creek. The Nueces River crossing at
Barksdale is very dangerous. East of Camp Wood Farm to Market 337 crosses Camp
Wood Creek in three places. Vehicular related drownings have occurred at all
these sites.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Laguna 7 10 7.3 Tue 01 PM 3.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1
&&
LAT...LON 2944 10003 2945 9995 2928 9990 2914 9985
2913 9994 2926 9998
$$
TXC463-051308-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0033.190604T2315Z-190606T1100Z/
/UVLT2.1.ER.190604T2315Z.190605T1700Z.190605T2300Z.UU/
209 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
The flood warning continues for
the Nueces River Below Uvalde.
* At 1:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 2.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage Tuesday evening and continue to rise to near
12.8 feet early wednesday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage
Wednesday evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding with livestock cut off and equipment
destroyed in lowest areas of the flood plain. Secondary roads and low bridges
are dangerous to auto traffic above Barksdale to below Carrizo Springs.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Uvalde 10 11 2.8 Tue 01 PM 4.1 5.2 2.5 2.6 2.6
&&
LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
2848 9975 2880 9985
$$974
WGUS84 KEWX 042007
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
West Nueces River At Brackettville Affecting Kinney and Uvalde Counties
Nueces River Below Uvalde Affecting Uvalde County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast
values, the forecast river stages will change.
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.weather.gov/ewx.
&&
TXC271-463-051407-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-190605T1513Z/
/BTVT2.3.ER.190604T1909Z.190604T2200Z.190605T0313Z.NO/
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
The flood warning continues for
the West Nueces River At Brackettville.
* At 2:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 19.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.1 feet by late Tuesday
afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday tonight.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Major lowland flooding four hundred yards wide cuts
off livestock and equipment in the flood plain. Flow is to the entrance
platform of the gauge house. Many secondary and primary roads downstream are
impassable.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Brackettville 9 15 19.3 Tue 02 PM 7.5 4.4 3.2 2.9 2.8
&&
LAT...LON 2946 10027 2952 10022 2944 10003 2926 9998
2931 10013 2942 10012
$$
TXC463-051407-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0033.190604T2315Z-190606T1000Z/
/UVLT2.1.ER.190604T2315Z.190605T1200Z.190605T2200Z.UU/
307 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
The flood warning continues for
the Nueces River Below Uvalde.
* At 2:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 2.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage Tuesday evening and continue to rise to near
14.6 feet by Wednesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by
Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding nine miles southwest of Uvalde
closes the Farm to Market 481 bridge floor. Livestock in the flood plain
should be moved to higher ground.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Uvalde 10 11 2.8 Tue 02 PM 14.6 5.3 2.6 2.6 2.6
&&
LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
2848 9975 2880 9985
$$003
WGUS44 KEWX 050211
FLWEWX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
911 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
...The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio has issued
a flood warning for the...
Nueces River
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast
values, forecast river stages will change.
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.weather.gov/ewx.
&&
TXC463-052011-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190606T1040Z/
/UVLT2.2.ER.190605T0745Z.190605T1100Z.190605T2240Z.UU/
911 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Moderate severity...
The flood warning continues for
the Nueces River Below Uvalde.
* until late Wednesday night...or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and continue to
rise to near 16.4 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood
stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Major flooding extends well into the flood plain.
Livestock in the flood plain should be moved to higher ground immediately.
Highways 57, 65, 85, 190, and Farm to Market 1025 are flooded and closed.
Fencing and roads are damaged.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
Uvalde 10 11 10.6 Tue 08 PM 16.4 4.6 2.7 2.6 2.6
&&
LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
2848 9975 2880 9985
$$785
WGUS84 KEWX 051310
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
810 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
Nueces River Below Uvalde Affecting Uvalde County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast
values, the forecast river stages will change.
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.weather.gov/ewx.
&&
TXC463-060705-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190606T0705Z/
/UVLT2.2.ER.190605T1100Z.190605T1400Z.190605T1905Z.UU/
810 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
The flood warning continues for
the Nueces River Below Uvalde.
* At 7:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.5 feet by late
wednesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Wednesday afternoon.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding with livestock cut off and equipment
destroyed in lowest areas of the flood plain. Secondary roads and low bridges
are dangerous to auto traffic above Barksdale to below Carrizo Springs.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Uvalde 10 11 13.3 Wed 07 AM 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5
&&
LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
2848 9975 2880 9985
$$394
WGUS84 KEWX 051846
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
146 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
Nueces River Below Uvalde Affecting Uvalde County
Nueces River Near Asherton Affecting Dimmit County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast
values, the forecast river stages will change.
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.weather.gov/ewx.
&&
TXC463-061010-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190606T1010Z/
/UVLT2.1.ER.190605T1100Z.190605T1545Z.190605T2210Z.UU/
146 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
The flood warning continues for
the Nueces River Below Uvalde.
* At 1:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Moderate flooding with livestock cut off and equipment
destroyed in lowest areas of the flood plain. Secondary roads and low bridges
are dangerous to auto traffic above Barksdale to below Carrizo Springs.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Uvalde 10 11 12.7 Wed 01 PM 5.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
&&
LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
2848 9975 2880 9985
$$
TXC127-061247-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0036.190607T1514Z-190610T0112Z/
/ASRT2.2.ER.190607T1514Z.190608T0600Z.190609T1312Z.NO/
146 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
The flood warning continues for
the Nueces River Near Asherton.
* At 1:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 4.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late Friday morning and continue to rise
to near 26.6 feet by early Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood
stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet...Major widespread lowland flooding cuts off and
potentially drowns livestock above Uvalde to below Tilden. Most secondary
roads and low bridges near the river flood. Flow is within a foot of the
bottom of the Farm to Market 190 bridge and the approaches are flooded.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Asherton 18 20 4.0 Wed 01 PM 4.0 18.0 26.5 20.3 14.1
&&
LAT...LON 2848 9975 2853 9967 2847 9939 2839 9939
$$901
WGUS84 KEWX 060134
FLSEWX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
834 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Texas...
Nueces River Below Uvalde Affecting Uvalde County
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Texas...
Nueces River Near Asherton Affecting Dimmit County
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
All persons with interests along the river should monitor
the latest forecasts, and be prepared to take necessary
precautions to protect life and property.
River stage forecasts are based on observed rainfall along with
predicted rain. If actual rainfall varies from forecast
values, the forecast river stages will change.
Do not drive automobiles through flooded areas. Remember, 18 inches
of water or less can carry away most vehicles, including trucks.
If you see flood waters or come upon a flooded roadway, remember
to turn around and do not drown.
For the latest river stages and forecasts visit our web page at
www.weather.gov/ewx.
&&
TXC463-060204-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FL.W.0033.000000T0000Z-190606T1010Z/
/UVLT2.1.ER.190605T1100Z.190605T1545Z.190605T2100Z.UU/
834 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
The flood warning is cancelled for
the Nueces River Below Uvalde.
* At 7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 9.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 3.5 feet by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Overbank flow nine miles southwest of Uvalde reaches
the Farm to market 481 bridge floor and approaches.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Uvalde 10 11 9.2 Wed 07 PM 5.8 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1
&&
LAT...LON 2913 9994 2914 9985 2885 9974 2853 9967
2848 9975 2880 9985
$$
TXC127-061933-
/O.EXT.KEWX.FL.W.0036.190607T1500Z-190610T0300Z/
/ASRT2.2.ER.190607T1500Z.190608T0600Z.190609T1500Z.NO/
834 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019
The flood warning continues for
the Nueces River Near Asherton.
* At 7:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 4.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...rise above flood stage by late Friday morning and continue to rise
to near 26.8 feet by early Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood
stage by late Sunday morning.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet...Major widespread lowland flooding cuts off and
potentially drowns livestock above Uvalde to below Tilden. Most secondary
roads and low bridges near the river flood. Flow is within a foot of the
bottom of the Farm to Market 190 bridge and the approaches are flooded.
&&
Below are the latest river stages and forecasts:
BF FLD Observed Forecast 7AM
Location STG STG STG Day Time Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon
Asherton 18 20 4.3 Wed 07 PM 7.1 18.2 26.7 20.8 14.6
&&
LAT...LON 2848 9975 2853 9967 2847 9939 2839 9939
$$What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Jun 4, 11:45 AM CDT, 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 4, 11:45 AM CDT, 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 .UPDATE... The overnight and early morning complex of storms that moved through the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau has generated a MCV, which was currently located over Uvalde county. This MCV has helped sustain convection through Uvalde county late this morning, with associated rain shield stretching northeast into the Hill Country. The remaining MCV and complex of storms will likely make it into Medina county early this afternoon, and possibly into portions of Bexar county. Hi resolution models have completely missed this feature, and PoP adjustments for the remainder of today were made based on radar trends. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... Convection continues to increase across our western counties which is something that has surprised much of the high-res models. However, the global models depicted some activity in this area overnight in addition to the TTU WRF and will use these models as a base for the next 6-12 hours. This convection is developing on an increase in the low-level jet and increasing precipitable water values in this area. The 00z DRT RAOB from last evening showed a PW value near 1.8" and latest satellite estimations has it up to 2 inches. The 00z ECMWF shows a 25 knot southerly wind at 850 over Val Verde County at 6z increasing to 20 knots by 12z before dropping down to 20 knots by 18z. Will use this as a guide to continue with widespread rain in the forecast for this area through the mid-morning hours with activity then diminishing in coverage by the late morning hours. Rainfall rates with this activity are reaching up to 3 inches per hour and total accumulations through the mid-morning hours may be in excess of 4 inches for isolated locations where localized persistent heavy rain could be possible. Overall threat of widespread flash flooding is low, but some localized flash flooding will be possible in Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney County. As this activity diminishes in coverage by the late morning hours, additional scattered showers and storms will be possible by the afternoon across much of the area, but the southwestern areas will continue to be favored as the best low-level flow remains in the area. If this area of rain causes an MCV to develop, which is certainty possible, then rain chances would be better to the east as any potential vortex should track east. The increase in moisture across the area is caused by a tropical wave that remains in the gulf waters to the southeast of Brownsville. The latest tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center shows this system with a 50 percent chance of tropical cyclone formation before the center of the system tracks inland in the next 24-36 hours. Regardless of development of a closed-low, abnormally high precipitable water values will remain in place through Thursday which will lead to elevated rain chances for much of the area. Models are in somewhat better agreement that the system will move to the northeast tomorrow as it gets picked up in an approaching upper level trough axis. This should mean that the bulk of the heavier rainfall associated with the system should shift east of our area by mid-day Wednesday. Storm total rainfall amounts through tomorrow look to be in the 1-3 inch range out west where current activity is in place and across the eastern counties where the heaviest activity is expected tomorrow. For the central areas, storm totals are expected to be in the 0.25-1.5 inch range. While isolated flash flooding cant be ruled out for much of the CWA given the very moist airmass in place, widespread flash flooding is not anticipated at this time and will not issue a Watch at this time. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... Rain chances will really decrease beginning Wednesday night and into Thursday as the wave and upper trough axis shifts east. The ECMWF is deeper and faster with the mid-latitude trough and shuts things down a bit sooner. In addition, the ECMWF develops a stronger surface low across East Texas on Thursday that provides subsidence across our area into Friday morning which would really shut things off for us. With the weaker trough axis, the GFS/NAM are hinting at redevelopment of a complex of storms with decent QPF totals late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across the eastern half of the area. Will carry a 20 PoP for now into Thursday night to account for this, but as of right now this doesn't seem like too plausible of a scenario but it bears watching. A strong upper level ridge is expected to build in from the west Friday - Sunday and with it southwest winds at 850 will really allow the heat to settle in as well. High temperatures Friday-Sunday will reach the upper 90s to 103 degree range for much of the area. Heat index values will be above 103 for much of the area and will be near heat advisory criteria across the eastern counties on Saturday and Sunday. Medium range guidance then diverges for Monday as the ECMWF brings in a cold front Monday as a deep upper low passes across the Northern Plains. The GFS does not bring the front in on Monday and keeps the above normal temperatures in place across the region. Am inclined to side with the GFS here as it does not seem to plausible that a cold front will be able to make it as far south as South-Central Texas given that the upper level forcing is that far north and 500 mb heights over us will be near 594dm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 89 74 86 73 93 / 30 60 70 40 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 74 85 73 92 / 30 60 80 40 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 73 86 73 93 / 50 50 70 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 84 72 85 71 91 / 40 60 70 40 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 73 91 73 97 / 40 70 30 20 - Georgetown Muni Airport 88 73 85 72 92 / 20 60 70 40 20 Hondo Muni Airport 89 73 90 73 96 / 70 50 50 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 73 86 72 92 / 40 50 80 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 76 86 74 92 / 30 60 80 40 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 74 88 73 94 / 60 50 70 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 90 74 88 73 95 / 60 50 60 30 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Aviation...17 Short-Term/Long-Term...Runyen Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 4, 4:27 AM CDT, 7 hours 32 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 427 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-050930- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 427 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today And Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will impact Val Verde, Kinney, and Edwards Counties mainly this morning with locally heavy rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches. A few storms could also produce strong wind gusts over 40 mph. Across the rest of South-Central Texas, isolated pockets of heavy rainfall amounts over 1 inch will be possible today and tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. A tropical air-mass will continue to produce a threat of locally heavy rainfall across much of the area through late Wednesday. Isolated pockets of 1 to 2 inch rains will be possible along and west of I-35, while scattered pockets of 1 to 3 inch amounts will be possible over the Coastal Prairies east of I-35. Hot and humid conditions are expected over the area Friday through Sunday. Heat indices are forecast to reach 105 to 110 degrees across many areas Saturday and Sunday, with slightly lower values expected over the Hill Country. A heat advisory may be needed. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 4, 8:19 AM CDT, 3 hours 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
819 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
TXZ185-203-041345-
Uvalde TX-Real TX-
819 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2019
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UVALDE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL REAL COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM CDT...
At 819 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Montell, or 21 miles southwest of Leakey, moving northeast at 20 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Reagan Wells, Garner State Park and Montell.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2943 10006 2951 10012 2956 10011 2957 10010
2963 10003 2962 10002 2963 10001 2964 10001
2976 9985 2953 9968
TIME...MOT...LOC 1319Z 236DEG 19KT 2951 10001Local storm report, Jun 4, 9:10 AM CDT, 2 hours 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
910 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0909 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNE KICKAPOO CAVERN S 29.68N 100.42W
06/04/2019 EDWARDS TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
FM 674 CLOSED DUE TO WATER ON ROADWAY.
&&Local storm report, Jun 4, 9:12 AM CDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
912 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0911 AM FLASH FLOOD 11 WSW KICKAPOO CAVERN 29.54N 100.63W
06/04/2019 KINNEY TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
FM 2523 NORTH OF FM 3008 CLOSED DUE TO WATER
ON ROADWAY.
&&Local storm report, Jun 4, 10:34 AM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1034 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1025 AM FLASH FLOOD 9 S MONTELL 29.40N 100.0W
06/04/2019 UVALDE TX EMERGENCY MNGR
WATER OVER ROADWAY ON HWY 55.
&&Local storm report, Jun 4, 10:49 AM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1049 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 AM FLASH FLOOD 9 S MONTELL 29.40N 100.00W
06/04/2019 UVALDE TX EMERGENCY MNGR
HWY 55 BETWEEN UVALDE AND CAMP WOOD IS
CLOSED DUE TO WATER ON THE ROADWAY.
&&Local storm report, Jun 4, 11:30 AM CDT, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1130 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2019
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1125 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 SE REAGAN WELLS 29.51N 99.79W
06/04/2019 UVALDE TX EMERGENCY MNGR
FM 1051 AT THE DRY FRIO RIVER CROSSING IS
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 1:46 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | EWX | Val Verde | 44 min |
| Jun 4, 2:54 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EWX | Edwards, Kinney, Val Verde | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 3:15 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EWX | Edwards, Kinney, Val Verde | 5 hr |
| Jun 4, 6:26 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | EWX | Kinney | 19 min |
| Jun 4, 7:44 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EWX | Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, Uvalde, Val Verde | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 8:19 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | EWX | Real | 26 min |
| Jun 4, 8:51 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EWX | Uvalde | 114 min |
| Jun 4, 9:37 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EWX | Kinney, Uvalde | 21 hr |
| Jun 4, 10:29 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EWX | Edwards, Kinney, Real, Uvalde | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 10:36 AM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EWX | Uvalde | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 11:45 AM CDT | River Flood Warning | EWX | Uvalde | 15 hr |
| Jun 4, 11:48 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EWX | Uvalde | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 12:01 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | EWX | Uvalde | 14 min |
| Jun 4, 1:30 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EWX | Uvalde | 60 min |
| Jun 4, 1:32 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EWX | Medina | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 2:08 PM CDT | Special Weather Statement | EWX | Bexar | 37 min |
| Jun 4, 2:50 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EWX | Bexar | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 3:31 PM CDT | Flash Flood Watch | EWX | Edwards, Kinney, Val Verde | 15 hr |
| Jun 4, 3:31 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EWX | Bexar | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 3:48 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | EWX | Val Verde | 17 hr |
| Jun 4, 4:00 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EWX | Atascosa | 2 hr |
| Jun 4, 4:42 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EWX | Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 4:54 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | EWX | Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson | 3 hr |
| Jun 4, 5:14 PM CDT | River Flood Warning | EWX | Uvalde | 15 hr |
| Jun 4, 5:57 PM CDT | Areal Flood Advisory | EWX | Atascosa | 3 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Texas, 2019Every river flood warning in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.