Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
623 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
Main concern this forecast period will be the convection during the
first 6 hours. Cluster of strong to severe storms will likely impact
the KAUS terminal right near the start of the forecast period.
Additional strong to severe storms will likely develop during the
next few hours then move across the area through 05Z-06Z. Hail
greater than one inch and winds greater than 50 knots will be
possible with the strongest storms. This convection is developing
ahead of a cold front that will usher in northerly winds and the
potential for convection through Monday. Expecting MVFR cigs to
develop once convection begins and will prevail until late Monday
afternoon. Northerly winds will be near 10 knots with gust to around
20 knots overnight. After 15Z-16Z Monday expecting northerly winds
10 to 20 knots with occasional gusts to 25 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019/

UPDATE...
All grids, text, and graphics are being updated for Severe
Thunderstorm Watch #350, which expands the risk area to the entire
coastal plains. While Convection Allowing Models (CAMs) are still
problematic with specifics for the incoming convection, we now have
growing confidence in a wind/hail event for much of the I-35 corridor
including metro Austin and San Antonio. Now is the time to bring pets
indoors and move vehicles, yard furniture, etc., in garages or to the
safest possible area outside from wind/hail. Storms will move through
the Austin metro area between 6 and 730 pm, and metro San Antonio
between 8 and 10 pm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
As a strong cold front approaches, a strong onshore surge of moisture
is combining with increasing mid level moisture from a Pacific tropical
plume spilling over the Mexican Plateau to minimize the daytime
mixing trends with respect to surface dewpoints. Dewpoints continued
to rise at KDRT and KGYB leading to the need to expand the Heat
Advisory for a few more counties. A few locations may hover near the
advisory criteria past 01Z, but rather than complicate the afternoon
forecast package further, we need to focus our attention on the very
strong cold front that is already generating severe weather over
North Central TX.

Peak CAPE values in the near storm environment appear to be in the
4500-5000 J/kg range with some locally higher values possible just
beyond the near storm environment. This will thus be the driving
force of the storm activity, and the high temps reaching around 100
to 102 over the Hill Country should provide plenty of downdraft
potential to result in severe storms with damaging wind potential
foremost, and with also a potential for some isolated severe hail
intense downpours capable of localized flooding. The assumption is
that the initial outflows will prevent a slow moving mesoscale
complex from dumping the type of rainfall noted by some of the higher
deterministic outputs (locally 5 inches). Most of the CAMs models
depict some isolated 3 inch pockets most likely to come in multiple
rounds. Thus it was decided not to play up the flash flood potential
for now. We may need to make a quick evening adjustment should the
outflows cease and the leading edge move slow and methodically along
the front and mid-level support. Once we are past midnight, the
severe potential should diminish to a more isolated and brief threat
while the locally heavy rain potential to near 3 inches should become
the dominant threat. By around 6 am, most of the CAMs solutions
shift the focus beyond our CWA borders with some scattered garden
variety activity to continue into daytime Monday.

Much cooler air will be a welcome break from todays excessive heat.
An additional cooling effect should come from a weak shortwave in NW
flow aloft that should keep PoPs at or above 30 percent for all
areas. Scattered PoPs should continue into Monday night with a weak
shortwave noted to be passing gradually through the area from 00Z to
12Z Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Convection may remain scattered at the beginning of daytime Tuesday
but could decrease later in the day. Models show a gradually
decreasing chance through Wednesday, but NW flow patterns tend to
produce poor results in model performance, especially when trying to
pinpoint when chances are better in daytime or nighttime. By
Thursday, the Midwest troughing pattern aloft weakens and decreases
the NW flow pattern aloft over TX, thus lowering rain chances to
below 10 percent. A low amplitude ridging pattern aloft over TX
develops for the remainder of the 7-day forecast, but the pattern
looks weakly stable, and capable of being compromised by mesoscale
patterns. Will keep dry for now. The 2 days of welcome cooler weather
begin to return to near normals by Wednesday with above normal temps
expected to begin by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  83  68  82  66 /  70  30  20  20  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  83  68  82  66 /  70  30  20  30  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  83  67  82  66 /  70  30  20  30  20
Burnet Muni Airport            66  79  64  79  63 /  80  30  20  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  79  66  84  68 /  60  60  30  30  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  82  66  81  64 /  70  30  20  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             73  85  68  84  68 /  70  40  30  30  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  84  67  82  66 /  60  30  20  30  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  88  70  85  67 /  40  30  20  30  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  84  69  82  68 /  70  40  20  30  20
Stinson Muni Airport           74  84  69  83  68 /  70  40  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Bastrop-
Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-
Hays-Karnes-Kinney-Lavaca-Lee-Maverick-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Val
Verde-Wilson-Zavala.

&&

Aviation...10
Short-Term/Long-Term...Zeitler
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
927 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-101430-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
927 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon to 8 PM today for areas
generally along and south of an Austin to San Antonio to Uvalde
line. Hot and humid weather will lead to afternoon heat indices
will peak in the 108 to 114 degree range. Hot and humid conditions
are also in store for the remainder of south central Texas this
afternoon.

A strong cold front moves into the area late this afternoon and
evening bringing scattered thunderstorms to the region. Some of
these thunderstorms could be severe for areas along and north of
a Carrizo Springs to La Grange line. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to continue into early Monday morning. Damaging winds,
large hail and locally heavy rainfall are possible, especially
over the Hill Country.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
913 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW JOLLYVILLE        30.44N 97.78W
06/09/2019                   WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

EW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
914 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             BOERNE                  29.79N 98.73W
06/09/2019  E1.00 INCH       KENDALL            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LEANDER           30.55N 97.83W
06/09/2019                   WILLIAMSON         TX   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMB KNOCKED DOWN.

&&

EW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
926 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCKHART                29.89N 97.67W
06/09/2019                   CALDWELL           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE GAS STATION AWNINGS BLOWN OVER IN
            LOCKHART.

&&

EW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
934 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             6 SW BASTROP            30.05N 97.36W
06/09/2019  E1.75 INCH       BASTROP            TX   PUBLIC

&&

EW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
934 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019

TXZ184>187-100330-
Kerr TX-Edwards TX-Real TX-Bandera TX-
934 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BANDERA...
SOUTHWESTERN KERR...CENTRAL EDWARDS AND NORTHERN REAL COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 933 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Kerr Wildlife Management Area to 15 miles north
of Tuff to 16 miles northeast of Vance to 6 miles west of
Rocksprings. Movement was east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Rocksprings, Hunt, Mountain Home, Lost Maples State Natural
Area, Vance, Kerr Wildlife Management Area, Waltonia, Prade Ranch and
Devil's Sinkhole State Natural Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 200 AM CDT for south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3018 9935 2978 9912 2980 10049 3016 10050
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 288DEG 17KT 3005 9952 3000 9977 3003 9990 3005
10032

CP