Gale Watch 16, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
258 PM PDT Wed May 29 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across portions of Trinity and eastern Mendocino counties
each afternoon and evening through Saturday, with the best chances
on Thursday. Otherwise, a gradual warming trend is expected into
early next week. Persistent northerly winds will generate steep
seas and hazardous ocean conditions through early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The marine layer was not quite as deep this morning,
running around 2000-2500 ft. However, N cloud-level winds piled up
low-level moisture along the Redwood Coast terrain early this
afternoon, with low clouds continuing to be locked into portions
of the Eel River Valley. A few eddies in the flow moved S along
the coast, providing occasional breaks in the clouds. Over the
interior, instability and a slowly approaching upper level low
from the N has led to showers and even a few thunderstorms. The
best chances of thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon and
evening will be over E Trinity County and the Yolla Bolly
mountains.

As the upper level low continues to move slowly S on Thursday, the
combination of cooler temperatures aloft and modest dynamic
forcing will lead to better chances of interior showers and
thunderstorms. Have indicated scattered thunderstorms over
portions of the interior for Thursday. Storm motion will be quite
slow, so localized small stream flooding is possible beneath the
strongest storms.

The marine layer is expected to gradually become more shallow,
which will allow periods of afternoon and evening sunshine at the
coast for the next few days. High temperatures are forecast to
increase into the lower 90s across portions of the interior this
weekend or early next week. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...Eddies have continued to move down the coast today which
has kept the stratus around the coast with intermittent breaks in
the clouds. These eddies will continue to persist through the
afternoon and evening therefore some periods of broken to scattered
clouds are possible at coastal terminals. Further inland VFR
conditions will persist however scattered cumulus will hang around
through sunset. A few scattered showers or thunderstorms will also
be possible across the higher terrain of Trinity and Mendocino
Counties however these will come to an end after sunset. Tonight,
clouds will increase yet again along the coast however a deep marine
layer should keep ceilings in the IFR range and some drizzle will be
possible late tonight into early tomorrow morning which may reduce
visibilities. /WCI

&&

.MARINE...Northerlies will continue to increase throughout the
waters over the course of the day, eventually reaching 15 to 25 kt
sustained in most areas with gusts approaching 35 kt in the typical
areas downstream from Cape Mendocino. This will more or less
continue unchanged through Thursday, but winds will likely increase
slightly on Friday to a solid 20 to 30 kt sustained, and this is
expected to continue through the weekend and potentially early next
week. It appears more likely that the outer waters small craft
advisory will need to be upgraded to a gale or hazardous seas
warning by Friday afternoon and last for most of the weekend. Since
this is still a bit far out, will allow the night shift to look at
the latest guidance and issue any upgrades if warranted.

The end result of this prolonged period of strong to near Gale
Force northerlies will be steadily building and steep northerly
seas, generally climbing from their current heights of 5 to 7 feet
to around 8 to 10 feet by this afternoon, to between 10 and 13 feet
over the weekend. While periods of modest weakening will be
possible, there is little to suggest that this pattern of strong
northerlies will appreciably change through at least the first half
of next week.

In addition to the strong northerlies, a modest long period south
swell is also being recorded at area buoys early this morning,
generally at around 3 to 4 feet 17 seconds. While this is not a
particularly large swell by any means, it will be noticeable along
south and southwest facing harbors and beaches over the next two
days. /BRC /WCI

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM Monday for PZZ450-455-470-475.

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For forecast zone information
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http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png

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