Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 403 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

As expected the first MCS of our active pattern has arrived this
afternoon and has set the stage for how things will evolve in the
next 24 hours.  This first MCS ended up taking a more northerly
track into NW MO and will bring light to moderate rain over northern
MO as it continues to dissipate. This feature may not be significant,
but it has set the stage for potential significant severe weather
over eastern KS and western MO late this afternoon into this evening
as it laid a WNW-ESE oriented outflow boundary just north of I-70
currently. North of this boundary there continues to be
redevelopment of elevated convection with a hail and heavy rain
threat, which could effect northern Missouri. Our main focus in the
next six hours will be along this outflow boundary for any
convective initiation. If storms form, and they are currently
expected to around 5-6pm, the environment is set up to support
supercell development with quick low level mesocyclone formation.
Effective SRH will be 300-400 m2/s2, MU CAPE of 3500 J/kg, and
effective shear of 44kts with a supportive hodograph all pointing to
all modes of severe weather possible. The highest tornado threat
will be along and south of that boundary and the latest
mesoanalysis puts the most likely convective initiation just NW of
Topeka, but as clouds clear out in eastern KS this focus could shift
eastward which will need to be monitored. Storm motion and effective
shear vectors are roughly parallel to the outflow so these storms
may go linear quickly which could limit the tornado threat with
another limiting factor being higher LCL values of 1200m. While the
tornado threat is somewhat limited in location and timeframe the
large hail and damaging wind threat is not. As these storms grow
more upscale along that boundary large hail (2+") and 60-70mph winds
are possible with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. These storms will
likely slowly move south as the cold pool develops with the KC Metro
having the most likely chance for large hail and damaging wind with
heavy rain between 7-9pm. These storms will continue to move south
and weaken as we lose daytime heating setting up the second round
for our area tonight with the formation of the LLJ. This second
round will likely be more of a flood threat, but will have the
chance of large hail (1-2") and strong to damaging winds (40-60mph),
especially once the cool pool develops and it starts to surge south
after midnight. The area would need to see rates of 2" per hour or 3-
4" in 3 hours, which may be possible with training storms. This MCS
will eventually surge south leaving the CWA quickly by the morning
but could cause some issues as it does overnight.

Our next MCS looks to form up Friday night into Saturday along a
warm front/quasi-stationary boundary that will be oriented W-E just
south of the MO River. A strong LLJ is expected to form up after
midnight which will coincide with an approaching shortwave trough to
really set up a heavy rain and large hail threat for most of our
area. Storm motion looks to remain parallel to the boundary with
PWAT values over 2" and MUCAPE of 2-3000 J/kg which all point to a
heavy precipitation and large hail event. After all the rainfall
tonight form the MCS soils may be saturated and a flash flood
watch may be warranted for some portions of our area during this
timeframe. Some models are putting the potential for 4+" and that
does not seem out of the question with synoptic set up that will
be established.

More convection looks likely Saturday night and Sunday night, but
the forcing looks weaker so impacts should remain less than the
previous two nights, but with saturated soils this will still need
to be watched. We finally get out of our MCS wet pattern going into
Tuesday with a dryer look going into mid week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected over eastern KS and
western MO this evening and into the overnight hours. An area of
scattered storms is currently over northern Missouri and NE
Kansas. These storms are expected to move into the terminals just
after sunset and could last through the early morning hours.
Lowered visibility in heavy rain, hail, and even isolated high
winds are possible with these storms making aviation difficult
during this timeframe. These storms do look to move through the
area by sunrise with the a MVFR ceiling forming up shortly after
sunrise and then scattering out by early afternoon with winds
shifting to the east.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
519 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
519 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to severe storms are expected this evening and continuing
 into the overnight hours for eastern Kansas and portions of western
 Missouri. All modes of severe weather are possible, including large
 hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and the possibility of an
 isolated tornado.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Strong to severe storms are also possible Friday night through
 Saturday morning. Saturday could see some redevelopment of storms
 with some being on the stronger side.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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