Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1222 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 403 PM CDT THU AUG 15 2019

As expected the first MCS of our active pattern has arrived this
afternoon and has set the stage for how things will evolve in the
next 24 hours.  This first MCS ended up taking a more northerly
track into NW MO and will bring light to moderate rain over northern
MO as it continues to dissipate. This feature may not be significant,
but it has set the stage for potential significant severe weather
over eastern KS and western MO late this afternoon into this evening
as it laid a WNW-ESE oriented outflow boundary just north of I-70
currently. North of this boundary there continues to be
redevelopment of elevated convection with a hail and heavy rain
threat, which could effect northern Missouri. Our main focus in the
next six hours will be along this outflow boundary for any
convective initiation. If storms form, and they are currently
expected to around 5-6pm, the environment is set up to support
supercell development with quick low level mesocyclone formation.
Effective SRH will be 300-400 m2/s2, MU CAPE of 3500 J/kg, and
effective shear of 44kts with a supportive hodograph all pointing to
all modes of severe weather possible. The highest tornado threat
will be along and south of that boundary and the latest
mesoanalysis puts the most likely convective initiation just NW of
Topeka, but as clouds clear out in eastern KS this focus could shift
eastward which will need to be monitored. Storm motion and effective
shear vectors are roughly parallel to the outflow so these storms
may go linear quickly which could limit the tornado threat with
another limiting factor being higher LCL values of 1200m. While the
tornado threat is somewhat limited in location and timeframe the
large hail and damaging wind threat is not. As these storms grow
more upscale along that boundary large hail (2+") and 60-70mph winds
are possible with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. These storms will
likely slowly move south as the cold pool develops with the KC Metro
having the most likely chance for large hail and damaging wind with
heavy rain between 7-9pm. These storms will continue to move south
and weaken as we lose daytime heating setting up the second round
for our area tonight with the formation of the LLJ. This second
round will likely be more of a flood threat, but will have the
chance of large hail (1-2") and strong to damaging winds (40-60mph),
especially once the cool pool develops and it starts to surge south
after midnight. The area would need to see rates of 2" per hour or 3-
4" in 3 hours, which may be possible with training storms. This MCS
will eventually surge south leaving the CWA quickly by the morning
but could cause some issues as it does overnight.

Our next MCS looks to form up Friday night into Saturday along a
warm front/quasi-stationary boundary that will be oriented W-E just
south of the MO River. A strong LLJ is expected to form up after
midnight which will coincide with an approaching shortwave trough to
really set up a heavy rain and large hail threat for most of our
area. Storm motion looks to remain parallel to the boundary with
PWAT values over 2" and MUCAPE of 2-3000 J/kg which all point to a
heavy precipitation and large hail event. After all the rainfall
tonight form the MCS soils may be saturated and a flash flood
watch may be warranted for some portions of our area during this
timeframe. Some models are putting the potential for 4+" and that
does not seem out of the question with synoptic set up that will
be established.

More convection looks likely Saturday night and Sunday night, but
the forcing looks weaker so impacts should remain less than the
previous two nights, but with saturated soils this will still need
to be watched. We finally get out of our MCS wet pattern going into
Tuesday with a dryer look going into mid week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to effect the state line
terminals through the early morning hours of Friday. Expect storm
activity to ease up and shift southeast towards sunrise, with
winds veering to the west and southwest through the day Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
519 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
519 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to severe storms are expected this evening and continuing
 into the overnight hours for eastern Kansas and portions of western
 Missouri. All modes of severe weather are possible, including large
 hail, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and the possibility of an
 isolated tornado.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Strong to severe storms are also possible Friday night through
 Saturday morning. Saturday could see some redevelopment of storms
 with some being on the stronger side.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1252 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     HAIL             KNOB NOSTER             38.77N 93.56W
08/15/2019  E1.25 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT.

&&

BLAIR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

MOZ037-038-043-044-160645-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-
1257 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS...SOUTHWESTERN
LAFAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 1257 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blue Springs, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Independence, Lee's Summit, Blue Springs, Grain Valley, Oak Grove,
Odessa, Lake Lotawana, Lone Jack, Lake Tapawingo, Lake Lafayette,
Bates City, Strasburg, Unity Village, Tarsney Lakes and Pittsville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 17 and 45.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 10 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3896 9440 3912 9428 3901 9381 3882 9389
      3873 9413
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 305DEG 24KT 3903 9426

Leighton

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
113 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREEN RIDGE             38.62N 93.41W
08/15/2019                   PETTIS             MO   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWNED VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
124 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1235 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW LA CYGNE          38.29N 94.80W
08/16/2019                   LINN               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND DAMAGE TO TREES AND A POWER POLE, TREE
            FELL ON CAR.

&&

BLAIR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
144 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

MOZ053-160730-
Bates MO-
144 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BATES COUNTY UNTIL
230 AM CDT...

At 143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Butler, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Rich Hill and Rockville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3805 9410 3804 9411 3806 9413 3804 9420
      3805 9420 3805 9421 3803 9424 3805 9425
      3806 9452 3833 9429 3823 9408 3821 9407
      3821 9405 3803 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 283DEG 24KT 3823 9423

Leighton

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
322 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 AM     HAIL             PARKER                  38.33N 94.99W
08/16/2019  E1.75 INCH       LINN               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BLAIR