Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
627 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 412 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a moderately amplified pattern
in place across the Nation, with a notable trough circulating it's
way through the Pacific Northwest, lead by a shortwave ridge axis
across the Plains States. Surface observations show a lee side low
across eastern Colorado with a warm front extending east along the
Nebraska border before dipping southeast across Missouri. The
southwest flow ahead of the surface low, under the ridge axis,
helped spark a strong complex of storms across eastern Wyoming and
Colorado late Thursday, which has propagated east along and
generally north of the frontal boundary extending east along the
border. Early morning mesoanalysis and storm behavior show that an
elevated mixed layer has advected in south of the frontal boundary,
with the 14C isotherm at 700mb seeming to define the limit the
southward expansion of storms into the moisture feed occurring on
the strong north-south nocturnal 850mb jet. However, the limiting
EML is not advecting as far north across eastern Kansas and
Missouri, where the nocturnal jet has yet to expand to. As a result,
don't see much reason why the convective activity racing east along
the Nebraska/Kansas border early this morning shouldn't make it into
northern Missouri; with a high expectation that the southern end of
the complex will turn southeast as it finds the edge of the EML
and moisture feed, thus expanding into areas as far south as
along and north of the Missouri River.

These morning storms will arrive in an environment with MUCAPE
values in the 2000 to 3000 J/KG range with a broad west to east
0-6KM shear of 35 knots. The complex of storms has had a history
of producing 60 to 70+ MPH winds across southern Nebraska as a
segment along the line surged out ahead, but the current line of
storms (at around 4 AM) is starting to look like it lost some of
the wind punch across eastern Nebraska, which might be a result of
the activity running ever so slightly away from the best
instability and a lightly weaker nocturnal jet. But, current radar
trends do also show the southern edge of the line staring to
organize with the help of the cold pool developing in the wake of
the leading storms, which will bring thunderstorm activity rolling
into areas as far south as Kansas City by sunrise.

Current activity on this southern edge looks to be dominated by
over running moisture advection across the cold pool from the
leading storms; as a result the southern edge is not quite
producing the strong winds that the line did earlier, but is more
of a hail threat from the tall updrafts. That said, the wind
threat may quickly redevelop as the storms reach the Missouri
border, and the nocturnal jet starts pushing more on the back side
of the line. And, none of this even really considers what will
happen as a likely MCV from the leading line of storms overnight
shifts east into Iowa today. As a result, there is an early
morning Severe thunderstorm watch across northern Missouri,
basically north of the east-west sections of the Missouri and
Kansas Rivers this morning, with hail, damaging winds, and
torrential rain possible with flash flooding. Expect the strongest
of the activity to weaken by mid morning with the nocturnal jet
mixing out, but a secondary line of storms in the wake of the
leading activity may then make way east into northern Missouri
later today. However, confidence is not overly high given that
none of the operational or CAM models are doing the best job with
these storms this morning. That said, think the RAP might be onto
something as it keeps some kind of showers and/or thunderstorms
rolling across the region into the afternoon hours as warm air
advection continues to over run either the frontal boundary in
northern Missouri, and/or bump into the side of some kind of MCV
left over from the morning activity. Some of the RAPS advertised
rain may end up just being cloud cover, but have kept some low end
POPs into the afternoon hours.

More convection will be possible this evening as a basic frontal
boundary will likely be wallowing across northern Missouri in the
wake of todays stormy activity. Much of tonight's activity will
depend heavily on antecedent conditions from this morning, but
torrential rain, and hail would be the minimal threats this
evening. Additionally, attention will need payed to Saturday night
into Sunday morning as the trough to the west starts to shift into
the Plains, setting up conditions by Saturday night that can be
best described by; high shear; high instability. Otherwise, we
might get a break from the storms by early next work week, but
then it will just be hot and humid. Welcome to Summer!

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

A early morning line of thunderstorms is starting to spread across
the Kansas-Missouri state line terminals. Winds ahead of the line
are from the southeast, but will become rather strong and variable
as the line of storms move through. These are strong to possible
severe storms this morning. More activity is possible this
afternoon across northern Missouri, but currently that activity
looks far enough away to not include for the the afternoon or
evening hours, outside of the KSTJ terminal.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
459 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
459 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Early morning strong to severe thunderstorms will sweep across
 eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, with hail, strong winds, and
 torrential rain as threats. Another round of storms is possible
 later this afternoon and evening across far northern Missouri.

 More detailed information can be
 accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Multiple rounds of storms are possible through the weekend, with
 more active weather Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday there
 could be 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the region with some areas
 seeing localized amounts higher than that. This will likely
 aggravate river flooding and may cause some flash flooding issues.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1021 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW KANSAS CITY       39.05N 94.60W
06/21/2019                   JACKSON            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE DOWN BEHIND HOUSE.

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1031 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE UNITY VILLAGE     38.96N 94.37W
06/21/2019  M74 MPH          JACKSON            MO   ASOS

&&

SGA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE INDEPENDENCE      39.07N 94.38W
06/21/2019                   JACKSON            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WATER OVER ROADWAY AT MO 291 & GUDGELL RD.

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1050 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE BLUE SPRINGS      38.99N 94.27W
06/21/2019                   JACKSON            MO   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT: 8 INCH TREE LIMB DOWN.

&&

SGA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1051 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW KANSAS CITY        39.08N 94.59W
06/21/2019                   JACKSON            MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WATER OVER ROADWAY. RECEIVED FROM KC SCOUT.

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1054 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     HAIL             5 NE LONE JACK          38.91N 94.10W
06/21/2019  E0.70 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SGA