Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
412 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 412 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a moderately amplified pattern
in place across the Nation, with a notable trough circulating it's
way through the Pacific Northwest, lead by a shortwave ridge axis
across the Plains States. Surface observations show a lee side low
across eastern Colorado with a warm front extending east along the
Nebraska border before dipping southeast across Missouri. The
southwest flow ahead of the surface low, under the ridge axis,
helped spark a strong complex of storms across eastern Wyoming and
Colorado late Thursday, which has propagated east along and
generally north of the frontal boundary extending east along the
border. Early morning mesoanalysis and storm behavior show that an
elevated mixed layer has advected in south of the frontal boundary,
with the 14C isotherm at 700mb seeming to define the limit the
southward expansion of storms into the moisture feed occurring on
the strong north-south nocturnal 850mb jet. However, the limiting
EML is not advecting as far north across eastern Kansas and
Missouri, where the nocturnal jet has yet to expand to. As a result,
don't see much reason why the convective activity racing east along
the Nebraska/Kansas border early this morning shouldn't make it into
northern Missouri; with a high expectation that the southern end of
the complex will turn southeast as it finds the edge of the EML
and moisture feed, thus expanding into areas as far south as
along and north of the Missouri River.

These morning storms will arrive in an environment with MUCAPE
values in the 2000 to 3000 J/KG range with a broad west to east
0-6KM shear of 35 knots. The complex of storms has had a history
of producing 60 to 70+ MPH winds across southern Nebraska as a
segment along the line surged out ahead, but the current line of
storms (at around 4 AM) is starting to look like it lost some of
the wind punch across eastern Nebraska, which might be a result of
the activity running ever so slightly away from the best
instability and a lightly weaker nocturnal jet. But, current radar
trends do also show the southern edge of the line staring to
organize with the help of the cold pool developing in the wake of
the leading storms, which will bring thunderstorm activity rolling
into areas as far south as Kansas City by sunrise.

Current activity on this southern edge looks to be dominated by
over running moisture advection across the cold pool from the
leading storms; as a result the southern edge is not quite
producing the strong winds that the line did earlier, but is more
of a hail threat from the tall updrafts. That said, the wind
threat may quickly redevelop as the storms reach the Missouri
border, and the nocturnal jet starts pushing more on the back side
of the line. And, none of this even really considers what will
happen as a likely MCV from the leading line of storms overnight
shifts east into Iowa today. As a result, there is an early
morning Severe thunderstorm watch across northern Missouri,
basically north of the east-west sections of the Missouri and
Kansas Rivers this morning, with hail, damaging winds, and
torrential rain possible with flash flooding. Expect the strongest
of the activity to weaken by mid morning with the nocturnal jet
mixing out, but a secondary line of storms in the wake of the
leading activity may then make way east into northern Missouri
later today. However, confidence is not overly high given that
none of the operational or CAM models are doing the best job with
these storms this morning. That said, think the RAP might be onto
something as it keeps some kind of showers and/or thunderstorms
rolling across the region into the afternoon hours as warm air
advection continues to over run either the frontal boundary in
northern Missouri, and/or bump into the side of some kind of MCV
left over from the morning activity. Some of the RAPS advertised
rain may end up just being cloud cover, but have kept some low end
POPs into the afternoon hours.

More convection will be possible this evening as a basic frontal
boundary will likely be wallowing across northern Missouri in the
wake of todays stormy activity. Much of tonight's activity will
depend heavily on antecedent conditions from this morning, but
torrential rain, and hail would be the minimal threats this
evening. Additionally, attention will need payed to Saturday night
into Sunday morning as the trough to the west starts to shift into
the Plains, setting up conditions by Saturday night that can be
best described by; high shear; high instability. Otherwise, we
might get a break from the storms by early next work week, but
then it will just be hot and humid. Welcome to Summer!

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2019

VFR conditions prevail at the Kansas Missouri state line terminals
at this time. However, a thunderstorm complex is rolling across
the Central Plains at this hour, and will likely impact the
terminals between 11Z and 14Z this morning. Expect gusty south
winds to develop behind the exiting complex of storms by Friday
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
459 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
459 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Early morning strong to severe thunderstorms will sweep across
 eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, with hail, strong winds, and
 torrential rain as threats. Another round of storms is possible
 later this afternoon and evening across far northern Missouri.

 More detailed information can be
 accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Multiple rounds of storms are possible through the weekend, with
 more active weather Saturday night and Sunday. By Monday there
 could be 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the region with some areas
 seeing localized amounts higher than that. This will likely
 aggravate river flooding and may cause some flash flooding issues.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

KSZ102-MOZ002>004-011>013-020-211100-
Doniphan KS-Buchanan MO-De Kalb MO-Worth MO-Holt MO-Gentry MO-
Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
520 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DONIPHAN...NORTH CENTRAL
BUCHANAN...WESTERN WORTH...WESTERN GENTRY...EASTERN HOLT...NODAWAY...
ANDREW AND NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

At 520 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Braddyville to near Maitland to near
Highland. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Maryville, Savannah, Wathena, Elwood, Stanberry,
Highland, Troy, Country Club Villa, Country Club, King City, Oregon,
Burlington Junction, Hopkins, Ravenwood, Union Star, Maitland,
Amazonia, Skidmore and Forest City.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 43 and 77.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 0 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4057 9443 4007 9442 3965 9483 3977 9534
      3990 9534 4013 9510 4058 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 277DEG 36KT 4056 9506 4013 9505 3985 9533

Barham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
522 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

KSZ025-102-103-MOZ020-028-211115-
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-Leavenworth KS-Platte MO-Buchanan MO-
522 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DONIPHAN...
NORTHWESTERN LEAVENWORTH...ATCHISON...SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN AND
NORTHWESTERN PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 522 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Highland to near Holton to near Paxico.
Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Atchison, Horton, Effingham, Rushville, Lancaster, Easton, Muscotah,
Denton, Lewis And Clark Village, Doniphan, De Kalb, Severance,
Farmington, Huron, Leona, Iatan, Arrington, Bean Lake, Lewis And
Clark Vi and Bendena.

This includes Interstate 29 near mile marker 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and northwestern and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3962 9556 3966 9553 3965 9534 3980 9533
      3964 9478 3912 9518 3942 9518 3942 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 1022Z 307DEG 39KT 3984 9532 3946 9565 3911 9616

Barham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
550 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

KSZ102-MOZ002>005-012>014-020-211130-
Doniphan KS-Buchanan MO-Daviess MO-De Kalb MO-Worth MO-Gentry MO-
Nodaway MO-Harrison MO-Andrew MO-
550 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DONIPHAN...
NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...WORTH...NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS...GENTRY...
WESTERN HARRISON...EASTERN NODAWAY...ANDREW AND DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL
630 AM CDT...

At 550 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Hopkins to 9 miles north of Savannah to near
Troy. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Maryville, Savannah, Albany, Wathena, Elwood, Stanberry,
Maysville, Troy, Country Club Villa, Country Club, King City, Grant
City, Agency, Hopkins, Ravenwood, Union Star, Amazonia, New Hampton
and Clarksdale.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 38 and 64.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 0 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and north central and northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4057 9410 4010 9412 3975 9453 3974 9460
      3969 9460 3960 9470 3974 9518 3986 9506
      3990 9499 3992 9500 4007 9486 4057 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1050Z 263DEG 39KT 4055 9478 4007 9476 3973 9516

Barham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
602 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

KSZ025-102>104-MOZ020-021-028-211145-
Doniphan KS-Wyandotte KS-Atchison KS-Leavenworth KS-Platte MO-
Buchanan MO-Clinton MO-
602 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WYANDOTTE...SOUTH
CENTRAL DONIPHAN...LEAVENWORTH...EASTERN ATCHISON...BUCHANAN...WEST
CENTRAL CLINTON AND PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

At 602 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles north of Rushville to 6 miles east of
Nortonville to near Winchester. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
St. Joseph, Leavenworth, Lansing, Atchison, Platte City, Basehor,
Weston, Gower, Kansas City, Agency, Edgerton, Dearborn, Camden Point,
Rushville, Easton, Tracy, Lewis And Clark Village, Doniphan,
Fairmount and Farley.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 16 and 42.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 27 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and northwestern and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3976 9511 3964 9452 3933 9473 3912 9492
      3919 9518 3942 9518 3942 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 290DEG 30KT 3969 9505 3944 9522 3929 9533

Barham