Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
405 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 358 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

Early afternoon surface observations show cold front is slowly
sagging southward across the forecast area with a weak pre-frontal
surface trough generally extending from northeast Missouri to the KC
metro and then westward across Kansas. This front will be the
primary focus for convective initiation this afternoon and several
storms have already popped up across east-central Kansas and
northeast Missouri. Satellite imagery and personal observations note
that a scattered cu field in between these two areas ahead of the
front. Several storms should develop in between these two areas over
the next few hours as convective temperatures in the mid 80s have
already been reached and have eroded the cap.

Modest CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg will allow for strong updrafts
with any storm that develops this afternoon allowing for large hail.
In addition, steep lapse rates and an inverted-v sounding will allow
for strong, damaging winds. Modeled hodographs depict more of a
straight-line hodograph indicating that several of these storms
could split into right and left movers. The lack of a strongly
veering wind profile with height due to light southwesterly flow at
the surface and generally westerly to west-northwesterly flow in the
upper levels supports the straight hodographs. Despite strong
directional shear, sufficient speed shear combined with modest
instability will allow storms to quickly organize. While the
overall tornado threat remains relatively low this afternoon it is
not nil. These storms will gradually push eastward with time and
we should see activity weaken with the loss of daytime heating.

Quiet weather returns Sunday and Monday with high pressure building
in behind the front. Temperatures will fairly pleasant with high
topping out in the 70s and a few locations may reach 80 degrees. The
next chance for convection looks to arrive overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning as convection off the higher terrain to the west
translates eastward...running the periphery of the ridge.
Thunderstorm chances look to continue each day through the remainder
of the upcoming work week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period.
Some convection will be possible between 22-01Z along a cold front
pushing through the terminals...however...initiation may hold off
until south of the terminals. If storms do initiate near the
terminals, they will be capable of brief heavy rain, strong winds,
and large hail. Otherwise, light southwesterly winds will veer to
northwesterly then northeasterly by late in the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...PPietrycha
Aviation...PPietrycha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
507 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
507 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across central Missouri this
 afternoon and this evening.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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