Flash Flood Warning 32, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1252 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 328 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

Main concern today will be the potential for severe storms this
afternoon out ahead of a cold front that is expected to move
through our region this afternoon and evening.

IR satellite imagery showing decaying convection up across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa early this morning, out ahead of
a weak shortwave trough embedded in northwest flow aloft. With
time, this feature is expected to continue tracking east-
southeast before reaching northern Illinois later this morning.
Meanwhile, an associated cold front is expected to begin moving
into our region by early afternoon, with models still suggesting
convection will develop out ahead of this feature after the 18z
time frame. Today's model runs have come in with sparser coverage
than previous runs, and it's possible that increasing subsidence
on the backside of the departing upper wave may initially suppress
convection for a few hours later today. In addition to this, fcst
models continue to highlight southwesterly low-level flow in
advance of the incoming cold front, which will offer only weak
convergence into the boundary as it approaches from the north.
Considering these two factors, it's not too surprising to see a
reduction of the Enhanced Risk on the latest Day 1 SPC outlook. In
any event, high temperatures are expected to warm into the middle
80s today, which combined with moisture pooling ahead of the
front as dewpoints reach into the middle to upper 60s; we can
expect a moderately unstable airmass will be in place as the
boundary starts to move through the region. A quick look higher in
the atmosphere yields little in the way of any synoptic-scale
support, suggesting the front itself will be the main focusing
mechanism for developing activity later today. Fcst soundings from
across the region continue to highlight unidirectional wind
profiles with steep, nearly dry adiabatic low-level lapse rates
extending up to almost 5000 ft. Given this scenario, large hail
and damaging winds will be the main threats with any storms that
achieve severe characteristics. With 0-6 km bulk shear values of
40 kts expected later today, storm modes will initially be
discrete cells before activity congeals into small line segments
and eventually decreases in coverage later this evening with loss
of daytime heating.

Beyond today, dry weather looks to move back into the region for
both Sunday and Monday as high pressure takes control of the local
weather pattern. Cooler weather will be in store for both day
with highs expected to reach into the middle to upper 70s. Beyond
this, all signs continue to point towards an unsettled work week
from Tuesday onwards as a front slowly meanders across the central
U.S. This feature will likely serve as focus for renewed
shwr/storm chances each day, which at the present time, looks as
if daily threats will extend right into next weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2019

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through much of the period.
Some convection will be possible between 22-01Z along a cold front
pushing through the terminals...however...initiation may hold off
until south of the terminals. If storms do initiate near the
terminals, they will be capable of brief heavy rain, strong winds,
and large hail. Otherwise, light southwesterly winds will veer to
northwesterly then northeasterly by late in the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...PPietrycha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
507 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
507 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 There is a risk of severe thunderstorms across central Missouri this
 afternoon and this evening.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo