River Flood Warning 97, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
403 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 403 PM CDT MON APR 29 2019

Looks like an active pattern will prevail through the next couple of
days, with moderate to heavy rain and severe weather both possible.

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a broad pattern, locally
characterized with a quick moving zonal like flow, in place across
the center of the Nation, with a deep low circulation that is
spinning it's way onshore across southern California. The low in
California will continue to shift east over the next couple of days,
forcing the overall pattern into a southwest flow across the central
Plains, which will in turn help fuel expected storms tonight through
Tuesday and Wednesday as the low circulation opens up and quickly
advects across the region.

Late tonight through Wednesday...we expect showers and thunderstorms
to develop as the ever increasing southwest flow allows allows a 50+
kt nocturnal low level jet to spread across eastern Kansas and
Missouri late tonight (after midnight), helping bring plenty of
moisture and warm air advection to the region. Ultimately, this
advection regime will result in precipitable water values in the 1.5
inch range --if not higher--, which will be more than sufficient to
fuel storms tonight through Tuesday and Wednesday with moderate, to
sometimes heavy, rain. This leaves confidence rather high that we
will see a widespread rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with
high end accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible if storms set up
and pass over the same location repeatedly. Additionally, highest
totals are expected generally along and south of the Missouri River.
All that said, have expanded the Flash Flood watch a bit north as
storms tracking to the northeast across the region may train a
little farther north with some of the heavier precipitation early
in the event Tuesday morning, and again late Wednesday.

As for the severe weather potential Tuesday...it looks very
conditional on what happens that morning, as showers and
thunderstorms should be ongoing at sunrise. With expected storms
Tuesday morning, concerns are focused on the fact that cloud cover
and rain could keep our section of Kansas and Missouri a bit more
stabilized than areas of southern Missouri. But, if we can get any
breaks in the rain and cloud cover sufficient to allow instability
to move north, then large hail and strong winds will quickly be a
threat with any strong storms. Best timing for this sort of strong
storm activity will likely be Tuesday morning between sunrise and
noon, before activity farther south gets going and starts eating up
the available moisture and instability.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT MON APR 29 2019

MVFR conditions have been slow to clear the office, but should
lift in the VFR range early this evening for a brief period before
the threat of more MVFR clouds and thunderstorms move in late
tonight. Once storms move in they will likely persist through
Tuesday morning, with showers in the afternoon. However, confidence
is a bit low on how this will play out.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Thursday morning
     for KSZ025-057-060-103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Thursday morning
     for MOZ008-013>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
501 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
501 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue across the region
 early this morning before ending later this morning. Additional
 thunderstorms are expected later tonight, with localized heavy
 rains possible south of Interstate 70.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

 Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop Tuesday
 as a cold front moves through the region. All severe weather modes
 will be possible with this activity, to include large hail, damaging
 winds, and isolated tornadoes. The most likely areas for widespread
 severe storms will be south of Route 50.

 Heavy rain and the threat for flash flooding will also increase
 Tuesday night, with the threat continuing through early Thursday.
 Total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches will be possible,
 which will lead to rises on area rivers and streams as well as
 areas of possible flash flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
705 PM CDT MON APR 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     TORNADO          5 WNW NEW LANCASTER     38.49N 94.81W
04/29/2019                   MIAMI              KS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE TO A CHURCH AND DAMAGE
            TO TOMBSTONES IN CEMETERY. PART OF ROOF WAS
            LIFTED AND REMOVED FROM THE BUILDING. PATH
            LENGTH WAS 2 MILES WITH A WIDTH OF 15 YARDS.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
706 PM CDT MON APR 29 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 AM     TORNADO          5 WNW NEW LANCASTER     38.49N 94.81W
04/29/2019                   MIAMI              KS   NWS STORM SURVEY

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 5 WNW
            NEW LANCASTER. ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE TO A
            CHURCH AND DAMAGE TO TOMBSTONES IN CEMETERY.
            PART OF ROOF WAS LIFTED AND REMOVED FROM THE
            BUILDING. PATH LENGTH WAS 2 MILES WITH A
            WIDTH OF 15 YARDS.

&&

PP