River Flood Warning 115, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
318 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.Discussion...
Issued at 319 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

Main concern for today is potential for heavy rain and flash
flooding with some remaining potential for severe weather.

For the rest of this afternoon and early this evening, the area
remains north of the warm front. That front seems to extend from
northeastern OK to the vicinity of Joplin, east-northeastward into
the St. Louis area. Persistent showers/storms north of the warm
front through central KS and along I-70 has helped reinforce cold
air and prevented the front from lifting further north. Convection
allowing models remain in decent agreement with the timing of a line
of storms that are currently moving into south central KS. Models
develop this into a line that looks to move into the are in the 23Z-
03Z time frame. Forecast soundings show some increase in instability
ahead of the line, though still only ranging from several hundred
J/kg to about 1400 J/kg in a north to south gradient. Deep layer
shear looks fairly weak. But 0-1 km and 0-3 km shear is stronger so
some gusty winds look possible. The bigger issue is the high
precipitable water values. PW values at 00Z tonight range from
around 1.5" to 1.75". Additionally, based on satellite layered
precipitable water, there is ample moisture in the low to middle
levels with decent moisture showing up in the upper levels too. With
this high moisture content in the atmosphere, it looks like as any
line of storms moves into the area, they produce very heavy
rainfall. Rain amounts from early this afternoon, in addition to the
storms moving through this evening and tomorrow, we may see another
1 to 2.5 inches on top of the rainfall observed overnight. Given the
ongoing threat for flash flooding, the flash flood watch will be
allowed to continue as is through Thursday morning.

For Wednesday into Thursday, models show the front in the southern
portions of the forecast area. Much stronger instability builds as a
result. We may be capped in the southern part of the forecast area
until late in the afternoon. Both the NAM and the GFS weaken the cap
late in the afternoon with convection developing as a result. The
monkey wrench here is how the ongoing convection may interfere with
the pattern the models are showing. More widespread/persistent
convection would limit severe potential. But if there some drying
out and/or clearing, new convection could be more widespread. So
we'll have to wait and see how things evolve.

By Thursday, it looks like the front will be well south of the area.
So the chances for precipitation should be limited to our far south.
Cooler temperatures should preclude any threat of severe weather.

For the remainder of the forecast, there will be spotty
shower/thunderstorm chances. As of now, the threat of anything
severe looks low. Temperatures look below normal Thursday and
Friday, with highs in the 60s. For the weekend into next week, highs
look closer to normal with temperatures in 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

IFR ceilings are expected to persist throughout the forecast.
Models suggest the next round of storms may be in the 23Z-03Z time
frame late this afternoon/early this evening. Confidence was high
enough to include a TSRA tempo group during this time frame. Winds
will eventually shift to the north late this evening and to the
northwest early tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ008-013>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Update...CDB
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
409 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-010915-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
409 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Moderate to locally heavy rains are expected across the region this
 morning, and again later this afternoon. New rainfall accumulations
 of 1 to 3 inches will be possible through tonight under the
 heaviest activity. These rains will lead to an increasing flash
 flood threat across the region.

 Severe storms are also possible Tuesday afternoon, with large hail,
 damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes all being possible. The most
 likely locations for severe weather will be along and south of the
 Route 50 corridor.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Thunderstorms will remain possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.
 The main threats will be continued heavy rain chances along with
 isolated strong winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1101 AM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     HAIL             FERRELVIEW              39.31N 94.67W
04/30/2019  E1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

MMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
236 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HEAVY RAIN       GRANDVIEW               38.89N 94.53W
04/30/2019  M2.38 INCH       JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMS