Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
330 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

As temperatures reached the mid 80s with dewpoints in the lower to
mid 70s, convective temperatures were reached today. With only a
modest cap today, we are off to the races with new updrafts
forming in all areas of the CWA. From here on out, mesoscale
forcing will dominate the location of storms, as interaction of
outflow and MCV provide the chaotic locations of storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

In the surface wind field, there is a boundary located along
Interstate 80, noted by southeast winds to the north, and south
winds on the south side. This may become a focus for storms this
afternoon, otherwise, 130 PM storm positions are loosely
organized on storm outflow in northeast MO into southeast IA. For
now, in the early afternoon, the highest coverage is in the
southern CWA, but this may shift north with time, as there are
many hours left of high CAPE, low shear convection. CAPE values on
the SPC mesoanalysis page are now 4000 to 4500 !

Lows tonight, like last night are set for the lower to mid 70s,
and highs Thursday are expected in the mid to upper 80s, in a
persistence forecast. A similar round of scattered storms are
possible by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

The main forecast concerns are chances of precipitation through the
period. Models are in good overall agreement.

The weather will remain active through Saturday night as we
transition from southwesterly flow aloft to start the period to more
of a zonal flow by Saturday. This will bring several pieces of
shortwave energy across the region bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the region each day through Sunday. Temperatures
will remain near to slightly above the normals for early July which
are normally highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

After Saturday night, 500 HPA ridging will begin to build northward
across the Plains. This is also coincident with surface high
pressure building into the Upper Midwest but remaining to our north.
This may change though as we remain on the periphery of the storm
track and east of the ridge axis with northwesterly flow nearby.
Temperatures will be cooler Sunday and Monday which would be closer
to the normals for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

The rest of the afternoon, the coverage of storms will increase,
with localized LIFR conditions in very heavy rain, and possibly
gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions will dominate through
tonight, with light south winds. The storms will be scattered
enough to keep us using the Vicinity wording for storms today,
until we see one approaching and can accurately forecast it into
an airport. Otherwise, we would be guarantied to over forecast
the storm duration and impacts today.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts up to
2.75 inches were reported upstream of De Witt on the Wapsipinicon
River. This new rainfall in conjunction with flow coming down the
river has resulted in a new flood warning being issued.

Routed flow and forecast rainfall has led to new minor flooding
forecast on the Mississippi River at Keithsburg and Gregory
Landing.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Ervin
Hydrology...Cousins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
403 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-040915-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
403 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the outlook area today
and tonight. The main risks from storms will be damaging winds
and torrential rainfall. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a
marginal risk over much of the outlook area.

Hot and humid conditions are expected today. Heat index readings
may reach the mid to upper 90s during the afternoon and early
evening hours.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Thunderstorms are likely across the outlook area Thursday and
Friday. Heavy rainfall, strong gusty winds and frequent lightning
will be the main threats from these storms.

There are chances for thunderstorms Saturday and again Tuesday.
Severe weather is not expected Saturday. It is too soon to
determine the potential for severe weather Tuesday.

Minor flooding is expected on the Mississippi River at Gladstone
and Burlington late this week. Please see the latest Flood
Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Sheets

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