Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
644 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

The ring of fire is approaching!  Well, at least, it's slowly
getting here as the synoptic ridge is flattening out, and flow at
the surface and aloft is shifting to the southwest ahead of a
sagging front now positioned in northern Iowa to southern Wisconsin.
Locally, we hit the convective temperature of 86 late this morning,
and have been firing off towering cumulus and a few isolated heavy
showers along weak convergence lines. The main axis for this small
cell activity is from near Kirksville MO to Chicago, while the main
front is not yet seeing surface based storms. Heat index readings
are in the 94 to 102 range as of 2 PM, and am using the SPS product
to highlight this. Use caution looking at some AWOS obs, as the
dewpoint seems too high on them.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

The majority of sites that are above 90 are seeing dewpoints mix
down to the upper 60s, thus stabilizing the heat index readings in
the mid to upper 90s.  I'm not sure how CID can maintain a dewpoint
of 74, but that doesn't seem to be a widespread feature, and will
continue to keep the area sub advisory this afternoon.

Thunderstorms remain likely to form along the main cold front
tonight, which should then through outflow means, sink south into
the I-80 corridor by late evening. These storms will have very high
CAPE (over 4000), to work with, and strong DCAPE for downdrafts
punching to the surface. That is especially true south of the front,
over the I-80 corridor. Thus, a diurnally driven event tonight,
from north to south is expected, with coverage waning after
midnight in the south. Rainfall may be spotty, but could exceed 2
inches in spots, enough to watch for a flash flood risk, but not
issue a watch. After activity wanes tonight, a isolated shower or
storm is possible through late morning Wednesday, before the
entire event repeats overhead tomorrow with the ring of fire set
up in place.

Heat threats will be low confidence due to convected debris and
potential new storms.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Overview: Typical July weather pattern will last through the end
of the week, with slightly above normal temperatures and very humid
conditions. Weak westerly mid-level flow is expected as a broad
ridge encompasses the Central to Eastern U.S. Periodic chances for
scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast through
Saturday, prior to the arrival of a cold front and pattern change
to slightly cooler and less humid conditions.

Thursday (4th of July) through Saturday

A convectively induced mid-level wave is forecast to meander through
the Upper Mississippi Valley, crossing northern Missouri, Iowa,
and Illinois. Forcing for ascent from this feature and lower
tropospheric warm air advection should lead to a few rounds of
scattered showers and storms. Model blend rain chances are 30-50%.
The Storm Prediction Center has the area in general thunder --
meaning non-severe storms are expected. However, moderate
instability could support an isolated strong or severe storm.

Little change to the forecast for Friday. Another shortwave, or
ripple in the westerly mid-level flow, should result in scattered
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Models
have a wind shift or cold front accompanying this system, which
may focus the convection along a line as it slides from NW to SE
through the forecast area.

High pressure building into the Northern Plains and south-central
Canada will cause winds to eventually veer to the ENE Friday night,
allowing for less humid air to work into at least the eastern CWA. A
weak zone of low-level convergence on Saturday, at the
intersection of the humid air and the backdoor front pushing in
from the ENE, could be a zone for scattered PM storms once again.
The primary threats from any storms Thursday - Saturday are
torrential rainfall (with PWATs close to 2"), gusty winds, and
lightning.

Sunday On

Mid-level winds transition from zonal to WNW late in the weekend
into early next week. As this occurs, a surface high will traverse
the Great Lakes and glance our area, leading to an easterly
component to the surface winds, and to lower humidity. The model
blend has slight chances for showers and storms from time to time.
But looking at the big picture, this period should be mostly dry
with more comfortable summer conditions compared to the past week
(temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 60s).
Uttech

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

VFR conditions are expected outside of any SHRA/TSRA through
taf cycle. Expect MVFR to LIFR conditions and gusty winds with
any TSRA that forms this evening. The potential does exist for
wet microbursts with storms. After this evening, a return to
mainly dry conditions is expected, with more scattered
thunderstorms possible again by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

Replaced the flood watch on the Mississippi River with a flood
warning for Gladstone and Burlington. Routed flow from upstream
and forecast rainfall the rest of this week will cause the river
to rise above minor flood stage.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Haase
HYDROLOGY...Simmons

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
357 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-030900-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
357 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Hot and humid conditions are expected again this afternoon. Heat
index readings are expected to reach the mid 90s to around 100
this afternoon into early this evening.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late this morning through
this evening. The main risks from storms will be damaging winds
and torrential rainfall. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a
marginal risk over the entire outlook area.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Wednesday through Thursday, thunderstorms are likely across the
outlook area. There will be a low threat for damaging winds and
heavy rainfall, especially Wednesday, where the Storm Prediction
Center has placed a marginal risk across the entire outlook area.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday. the
potential for severe weather appears low at this time.

Minor flooding is possible on the Mississippi River at Gladstone and
Burlington late this week. Please see the latest Flood Statements
and Flood Warnings for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

IAC019-030015-
Buchanan-
637 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BUCHANAN COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

At 637 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Rowley, or 8
miles south of Independence, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Quasqueton, Rowley, Lime Creek County Park and Monti.

This includes Interstate 380 between mile markers 50 and 51.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm. Minor flooding
of low lying areas, creeks, streams and urban areas is possible. If
you encounter water over a roadway, do not drive through it.

LAT...LON 4242 9160 4234 9160 4230 9199 4238 9202
      4248 9161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 258DEG 13KT 4234 9191

Uttech

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
702 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

ILC195-030030-
Whiteside-
702 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WHITESIDE COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Morrison,
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morrison, Union Grove, Round Grove, Malvern, Unionville, White
Pigeon, Morrison-Rockwood State Park and Whiteside County
Fairgrounds.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm. Minor flooding
of low lying areas, creeks, streams and urban areas is possible. If
you encounter water over a roadway, do not drive through it.

LAT...LON 4177 9008 4186 9010 4191 8985 4178 8983
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 261DEG 16KT 4183 9002

Uttech