Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
256 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

18Z surface data has low pressure in central Kansas near KGBD. The
frontal boundary ran east northeast from the low across northern
Missouri into central Illinois. A remnant boundary ran from
southeast Wisconsin into southwest Iowa. Dew points north of the
stationary front were in the 40s and 50s. South of the front dew
points were in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

Convection between KDSM and KALO will catch the the far northwest
part of the area late this afternoon. While this is going on
convection in northern Missouri and western Iowa will organize into
a severe storm complex.

This evening the storm complex will move across the area with very
heavy rain. The greatest risk for severe storms is generally south
of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL. However severe storms will still
be possible all the way up to highway 20.

Depending upon how the storm complex organizes late this afternoon
and evening the potential is there for storms to repeat over the
same areas. Given the amount of moisture streaming north the
potential is there for storms to produce 1-2 inches of rain in a
very short time frame.

Late tonight the severe risk will diminish but widespread rain with
embedded thunderstorms will continue. The rain will slowly end from
west to east toward morning.

On Wednesday the rain will continue to end across the area during
the morning. However with an additional upper level disturbance
forecast to move across the area, a new round of diurnal convection
is expected in the afternoon. How widespread the coverage becomes
will depend upon how much heating occurs during the day.

If there is some good news regarding the rain on Wednesday, it
should not be heavy as the deep moisture feed will be east of the
area. However given the saturated state of the ground any additional
rainfall will quickly runoff into area waterways.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

The active stalled front will remain in play for Wednesday night
and Thursday, before sliding southeast of the region for several
days. It's hard to be too specific on locations for the storm
development, which results in a rather broad swath of lighter rains
than it will be in reality. Given that, there remains potential for
isolated heavy rains, and isolated flash flooding through Thursday.
Storms interacting with the front, will potentially be able to
produce tornadoes.

The extended has largely been left unaltered from the initial grided
blend. the pattern becomes more active again toward the weekend,
after a rather pleasant Friday. Temperatures should mainly be in the
70s in the day, and mid 50s to lower 60s at night.  The broad scale
seems less likely for repeat heavy rains, but is also not a
seasonally dry pattern as well.  At least it's not an west to east
front, which is our current pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

Decaying storm complex along the Mississippi river will move east
across northern Illinois. MVFR/IFR conditions across eastern Iowa
and northern Illinois will improve to VFR/MVFR with scattered
TSRA through 00z/29. After 29z/00 a large TSRA complex will move
across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois with widespread MVFR/IFR
conditions. Very heavy rain and severe storms are also possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

Heavy rain continues to be the driver of additional flooding to
area rivers. A couple things, the morning rains have been
significant along the Interstate 80 corridor, in Iowa. This
activity may enhance the flooding on the Iowa, Cedar, and lower
Wapsipinicon, but this is short term ongoing rain, and it's impact
will be accounted for in this evening's forecasts.

The Mississippi River will be impacted by tonight's rain, as will
all other tributaries. However, the over all rain potential for
heavy amounts now looks to fall far enough south that the
tributaries will be mainly one's downstream of Fulton through Quad
Cities. If that's the case, the forecast could need to be lowered
for the this area, up to a half foot from current forecast levels.
Conversely, if the storms end up tracking north of Interstate 80
tonight with more than 1 inch or rain, then we may yet still see
levels 21 to 21.4 feet on the Quad Cities/Mississippi River. The
reason this is all so critical, is the fact we're relying on heavy
rain exact QPF placement with saturated soils. So, where storms
happen, very significant run off will happen, with flash flooding
also, but if they miss to the south, this significant impact is
removed largely. Thus, we have lower than normal confidence in the
exact crest upstream of Muscatine.

The Des Moines River is now forecast to see moderate to Major
flooding from Keosaqua through St Francisville. Heavy rain, of 1
to 2.5 inches is forecast in this basin tonight. Due to the
persistent wet weather, the Red Rock Reservoir is now approaching
full pool, and unable be used to hold back water to help mitigate
downstream flooding. Thus, with heavy rain forecast, we are likely
to see significant flooding happen on the Des Moines River.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa-
     Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Bureau-Carroll-
     Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer-
     Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Clark-Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...Ervin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
958 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-291500-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
958 AM CDT Tue May 28 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon through this
evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk for
severe storms south of a line Sigourney, Iowa to Sherrard,
Illinois. An enhanced risk for severe storms is up to Interstate
80. North of Interstate 80 there is a slight risk of severe
storms.

Severe weather risks today include damaging winds, large hail and
tornadoes. Strong tornadoes are possible. The severe risk is
greatest with storms is greatest with storms that occur along a
stalled boundary from northern Missouri into central Illinois.

Severe storms are most likely from 4 to 11 PM but isolated severe
storms cannot be ruled out outside of this time frame.

Heavy rainfall is possible, which may lead to flash flooding as
soils are saturated around the region. A flash flood watch has
been issued for the entire area today and tonight.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

As the upper level system lingers over the Midwest, a marginal
risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast for the area Wednesday.
Otherwise no severe weather is expected during this time frame.

Flooding will continue, though light rain Wednesday and Thursday
will not seriously add to the flooding problem. Another chance of
rain is forecast for the weekend, but it is too early to ascertain
whether this will exacerbate the flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation and amateur radio activation is likely
especially this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT PLEASANT          40.96N 91.55W
05/28/2019  M1.66 INCH       HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
624 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

IAC057-087-101-111-177-183-MOC045-290015-
Henry-Des Moines-Van Buren-Washington-Jefferson-Lee-Clark-
624 PM CDT Tue May 28 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENRY...NORTHWESTERN DES
MOINES...EASTERN VAN BUREN...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...EASTERN
JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN LEE AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

At 623 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stockport, or 9
miles northeast of Keosauqua, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Pleasant, Washington, Keosauqua, New London, Winfield, Wayland,
Birmingham, Bonaparte, Salem, Stockport, Lockridge, Crawfordsville,
Olds, Hillsboro, Rome, Westwood, Mount Union, Coppock,
Bentonsport/Vernon and Houghton.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm. Minor flooding
of low lying areas, creeks, streams and urban areas is possible. If
you encounter water over a roadway, do not drive through it.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4131 9167 4118 9148 4116 9148 4116 9145
      4110 9137 4108 9137 4107 9133 4100 9122
      4054 9194 4086 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 226DEG 34KT 4085 9185

Ervin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MOUNT UNION             41.06N 91.39W
05/28/2019  M1.00 INCH       HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES.

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BATAVIA                 41.00N 92.17W
05/28/2019                   JEFFERSON          IA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC SENT US PICTURES OF WATER OUT OF THE
            BANKS OF A CREEK IN BATAVIA RUNNING DOWN
            AREA ROADS.

&&

ARG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W MOUNT STERLING      40.63N 92.00W
05/28/2019  M1.90 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 5 PM.

&&