River Flood Warning 185, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
629 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

The strong cold front still has not made it's way south of the
Highway 20 corridor as of 2 AM.  Low pressure is riding up along the
boundary, and with that, strong convergence just ahead of it is
combining with the high PWAT values to create heavy stratiform rains
in our far northern CWA. The flash flood watch will continue until
the rain in the north ends early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

Today is just about as challenging as yesterday's forecast!  Low
pressure moving to southern Wisconsin should allow the cold front
and it's low clouds to move south between 3 AM and 9 AM today.  This
timing is a bit later than anticipated, and makes highs today
challenging today, as we're still in the mid to upper 70s in the
warm sector, and the cold side of the front seems stuck in the 50s
with a chilly wind to boot.  This challenging forecast isn't just
temperatures, as there is another wave riding along the front today,
and the latest model guidance including the ECMWF, GEM, and NAM move
this wave's forcing right over the CWA again this afternoon and
tonight. This appears to be a stratiform rain event, as CAPE is less
available, though close enough to the warm sector, some thunder is
likely in the south with this event.  I am banking on extensive
cloud cover to keep the instability in check that this remains
mainly a stratiform event, with embedded thunder.  We do still have
access to rather high PWAT through tonight, so heavy rains cannot be
ruled out. I am not overly confident on placement for a watch
tonight, as the north is very susceptible, but the south it a more
likely location for heavy rain if it happens.

Temperatures today should be flat, with not sun and no waa today to
warm up in the Fall, that's not a rare forecast.  Tonight, with
clouds in place and rain, we will be tied to the dewpoint, which
should allow for lows in the lower 50s west to upper 50s east.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

Thursday and Friday...

Little in the way of any sensible weather impacts are expected
across the region during this period.

Any leftover rain showers associated with the passing front will
exit the area by early morning Thursday, with clouds expected to
decrease in coverage by the late afternoon and evening. Northwest
winds and high presssure will bring a pleasant, more seasonable air
mass across the area, with daytime temperatures in the upper 50/low
60s and night time lows in the 40s/near 50 expected.

Late Friday Night through Saturday Night...

Guidance continues to remain consistent on a system impacting the
area during this period.

Behind the departing high pressure, low-level WAA will be increasing
across the area ahead of a surface low pressure and cold front,
which is progged along the Missouri River by 12z Saturday. Decent
moisture transport will take place ahead of the front with the aid
of 850mb winds around 35-40 kts, which will be advecting PWATs
around 1.50-1.70 inches across the area. Therefore, another round of
heavy rain does remain a possibility for this period.

The threat for severe weather at this juncture is low, as guidance
does not advertise any decent instability (especially with surface
temps in the 60s) or favorable lapse rates. However, some guidance
such as the GFS do show low values of MLCAPE entering southeast
Iowa, west central Illinois and northeast Missouri Saturday
afternoon. With this in mind, can't rule out the threat of a
thunderstorm with the frontal passage.

Sunday on...

Model blends continue to favor dry and cool weather for early next
week, as broad high pressure follows behind the front. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below normal for the middle of October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

The heavy rains have ended, at least for now. Low pressure is over
northern Illinois, with a cold front moving through southeast Iowa
and northwest Illinois at 12Z. As we've discussed extensively,
there is very low stratus around 300 to 500 ft found on the cold
side of the front, along with some patchy drizzle and light rain.
Winds will be strongest today in the first hour or two this
morning as the low moves away. The tightly packed low, means winds
will be northeast at DBQ and southwest at MLI at 12Z, but this
will generally become north to northeast today. Another widespread
rain may move into locations south of Highway 30 today and
tonight, with low cigs in all locations and rain at MLI and BRL,
and possibly at CID.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2019

Heavy rain will fall across the region over the next 48 hours so new
rises are expected on several area rivers. Moisture is now streaming
into Iowa out of the southwest, with precipitable water values of
1.8 to 2.0 inches. This moisture and deep warm cloud depths will
promote efficient rain producers for any showers and storms into
tonight. There is a slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall
(flash flooding) mainly for the Iowa counties into northwest
Illinois where the axis of heaviest rainfall is expected by
Wednesday morning where amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, while
amounts of 3 to 4 or more inches will be possible. The flash flood
watch continues for portions of the area due to the heavy rain
potential.

This rainfall will produce rises on area rivers, primarily impacting
rivers across Iowa and the Pecatonica and Rock Rivers. While rises
will occur, confidence is not high on extent of the rises due to
having some uncertainty still as to what basins will be hit with the
heaviest rains. This morning's river forecasts used rainfall through
Thursday morning so they do encompass the full amount of rain in the
forecast through this event. This forecast rainfall did produce
rises to or above flood stage for portions of the Maquoketa,
English, Wapsipinicon, and North Skunk Rivers with in bank rises on
all others in Iowa. In Illinois, this rainfall will likely produce
additional rises on the Pecatonica and Rock rivers, which will
extend the period of flooding expected. Moving to the Mississippi,
the axis of the heaviest forecast rainfall shifted slightly to the
south over the past 24 hours so there remains considerable
uncertainty if areas from Dubuque to Le Claire will reach flood
stage. Forecasts did lower slightly from yesterday but continued the
watches at this time. Going downstream, while confidence is not high
in eventual crests, have enough confidence that flood stage will be
reached from the Quad Cities through Lock & Dam 17 at New Boston so
upgraded those watches to warnings.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...Brooks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
310 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-030815-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
310 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Rain and a few thunderstorms are possible again today, with
another round of rain tonight. The rain could be heavy at times,
mainly south of Interstate 80. A strong storm with gusty winds is
possible in the far southern areas, near northeast Missouri during
the afternoon hours.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Another round of showers and a few thunderstorms is expected
Saturday. The threat for severe weather appears low at this time,
but rainfall could be heavy in some locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today and tonight.

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