Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

A strong upper level disturbance will pass across western Kansas
this evening. Thunderstorms can be expected and some of these will
be severe with large hail and high winds. Instability is much
lower than yesterday across most of western Kansas, although there
is still moderate instability across south central Kansas.
Although it is much drier across southwestern Kansas, it is also
colder at upper levels than yesterday so that severe hail is
expected with the strongest storms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

After a quiet day Sunday, an intense upper level disturbance will
gradually approach western Kansas Sunday night and move across the
plains by Monday night. A front over the southern plains will
likely stay to the south of the Kansas state line, which means
that the high-end severe weather would be to the south. Widespread
rain and embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy rain can be
expected north of the front in the cool air. A flood watch may be
required in parts of south central and southwestern Kansas.
After a quiet Tuesday and Wednesday, other strong upper level
storm systems are expected to approach by Thursday and then over
the weekend. High instability will be in place across much of the
southern and central plains given the warm and humid air mass so
that a few rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected. The exact
locations of the severe weather is not known this far out, but
there is the potential for high end severe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

A strong progressive shortwave trough will race through SW KS this
evening, producing scattered convection. Included convective TEMPO
groups for all airports this evening, using HRRR as guidance.
Strong subsidence will quickly take over after 06z Sun behind the
departing shortwave with a clearing sky. Associated cold front
will bring strong N/NW winds for several hours this evening,
gusting near 30 kts, followed by rapidly diminishing winds through
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  73  50  61 /  40   0  30  80
GCK  45  71  49  59 /  60   0  40  80
EHA  44  74  53  68 /  10  10  50  60
LBL  46  74  54  67 /  30   0  70  80
HYS  48  71  45  56 /  60   0  10  80
P28  52  74  53  65 /  50   0  10  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
218 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190730-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
218 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019 /118 AM MDT Sat May 18 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Another round of severe weather expected for Saturday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere looks to have ample time to recover
from Friday's storms. The slight risk extends across much of the
CWA east of a line along HWY 83 with the right ingredients to have
similar impacts as before with large hail, destructive winds, and
a few tornadoes possible, especially for eastern counties being
the bullseye of impact for central and south central Kansas east
of HWY 183. Any severe storms should exit the area to the east and
northeast by 10PM CDT.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Multiple rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms will occur over
the next week with Monday being the highlight for severe weather
for the first impulse across the high plains. All forms of severe
weather look to be possible to include a few tornadoes as the next
system makes its way across the western United States into the
Great Plain region. Flooding will also be a high concern for
Monday and Tuesday as rain amounts look to reach 3-4 inches for
counties east of HWY 183 and 1-3 inches for points westward.
Moderate flooding risk is likely for these areas of 3-4 inches in
the same parts that were recently impacted the past couple of
weeks with not much expected to see a flash flood scenario to
take place. Stay tuned for updates and possible watches and
warning to be issued over the weekend for these first couple of
days of the new work week.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  - None

* Monday
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - None

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for points east of Highway 83
after 2PM CDT for Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
547 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ043>045-063-064-182315-
Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Lane KS-Scott KS-Ness KS-
547 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...WESTERN
NESS...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...LANE AND
NORTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Amy to 7 miles northeast of Charleston.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dighton, Utica, Alamota, Grigston, Kalvesta, Beeler and Amy.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3869 10017 3801 10005 3800 10068 3846 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 232DEG 17KT 3843 10061 3796 10049

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             3 S MEADE               37.24N 100.34W
05/18/2019  M2.00 INCH       MEADE              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
603 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N GARDEN CITY         38.02N 100.86W
05/18/2019  E65 MPH          FINNEY             KS   PUBLIC

            WINDS GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED FROM 60 TO 70
            MPH.

&&

RB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
621 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ081-090-190015-
Pratt KS-Barber KS-
621 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BARBER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coats, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pratt, Sawyer and Coats.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3742 9885 3750 9894 3774 9867 3754 9846
      3750 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 223DEG 15KT 3749 9886

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
647 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     HAIL             4 E COATS               37.51N 98.76W
05/18/2019  M1.00 INCH       PRATT              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
649 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ043>045-063-064-077-078-190045-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Lane KS-Scott KS-Ness KS-Ford KS-
649 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FORD...NORTHERN
FINNEY...NESS...EASTERN SCOTT...HODGEMAN...LANE AND NORTHERN GRAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 648 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Shields to 11 miles northwest of Wright.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Gray, Scott City, Ness City, Dighton, Jetmore,
Spearville, Bazine, Ransom, Hanston, Utica, Alamota, Brownell, Scott
State Lake, Healy, Friend, Bellefont, Shields, Grigston and Shallow
Water.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3869 9961 3781 9959 3793 10092 3869 10095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 230DEG 38KT 3867 10046 3793 9999

RUSSELL