Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

A strong upper level disturbance will pass across western Kansas
this evening. Thunderstorms can be expected and some of these will
be severe with large hail and high winds. Instability is much
lower than yesterday across most of western Kansas, although there
is still moderate instability across south central Kansas.
Although it is much drier across southwestern Kansas, it is also
colder at upper levels than yesterday so that severe hail is
expected with the strongest storms.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

After a quiet day Sunday, an intense upper level disturbance will
gradually approach western Kansas Sunday night and move across the
plains by Monday night. A front over the southern plains will
likely stay to the south of the Kansas state line, which means
that the high-end severe weather would be to the south. Widespread
rain and embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy rain can be
expected north of the front in the cool air. A flood watch may be
required in parts of south central and southwestern Kansas.
After a quiet Tuesday and Wednesday, other strong upper level
storm systems are expected to approach by Thursday and then over
the weekend. High instability will be in place across much of the
southern and central plains given the warm and humid air mass so
that a few rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected. The exact
locations of the severe weather is not known this far out, but
there is the potential for high end severe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 445 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

A strong progressive shortwave trough will race through SW KS this
evening, producing scattered convection. Included convective TEMPO
groups for all airports this evening, using HRRR as guidance.
Strong subsidence will quickly take over after 06z Sun behind the
departing shortwave with a clearing sky. Associated cold front
will bring strong N/NW winds for several hours this evening,
gusting near 30 kts, followed by rapidly diminishing winds through
Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  73  50  61 /  40   0  30  80
GCK  45  71  49  59 /  60   0  40  80
EHA  44  74  53  68 /  10  10  50  60
LBL  46  74  54  67 /  30   0  70  80
HYS  48  71  45  56 /  60   0  10  80
P28  52  74  53  65 /  50   0  10  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
218 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190730-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
218 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019 /118 AM MDT Sat May 18 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Another round of severe weather expected for Saturday afternoon
and evening as the atmosphere looks to have ample time to recover
from Friday's storms. The slight risk extends across much of the
CWA east of a line along HWY 83 with the right ingredients to have
similar impacts as before with large hail, destructive winds, and
a few tornadoes possible, especially for eastern counties being
the bullseye of impact for central and south central Kansas east
of HWY 183. Any severe storms should exit the area to the east and
northeast by 10PM CDT.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Multiple rounds of rain showers and thunderstorms will occur over
the next week with Monday being the highlight for severe weather
for the first impulse across the high plains. All forms of severe
weather look to be possible to include a few tornadoes as the next
system makes its way across the western United States into the
Great Plain region. Flooding will also be a high concern for
Monday and Tuesday as rain amounts look to reach 3-4 inches for
counties east of HWY 183 and 1-3 inches for points westward.
Moderate flooding risk is likely for these areas of 3-4 inches in
the same parts that were recently impacted the past couple of
weeks with not much expected to see a flash flood scenario to
take place. Stay tuned for updates and possible watches and
warning to be issued over the weekend for these first couple of
days of the new work week.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Sunday
  - None

* Monday
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - None

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for points east of Highway 83
after 2PM CDT for Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
452 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ063-076>078-086>088-182245-
Gray KS-Seward KS-Finney KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Haskell KS-Ford KS-
452 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FORD...NORTHEASTERN
SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN FINNEY...SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...MEADE...
GRAY...EASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Copeland, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cimarron, Meade, Montezuma, Minneola, Fowler, Copeland, Ingalls,
Ensign, Charleston, Meade State Park, Howell, Missler, Tice,
Kalvesta, The Haggard Elev and Plains.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3713 10053 3762 10094 3810 10028 3797 10022
      3791 10023 3791 10020 3712 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 233DEG 24KT 3752 10061

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
507 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE SUBLETTE          37.48N 100.83W
05/18/2019  M58 MPH          HASKELL            KS   AWOS

&&

RB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ043-061>063-075>077-182300-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Kearny KS-Hamilton KS-Grant KS-Scott KS-Haskell KS-
514 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...KEARNY...
WESTERN FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT...SOUTHWESTERN SCOTT...WEST
CENTRAL GRAY AND NORTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT/500
PM MDT/...

At 514 PM CDT/414 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 16 miles south of Leoti to
12 miles southwest of Plymell. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Lakin, Holcomb, Deerfield and Plymell.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT/900
PM MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3826 10113 3835 10112 3781 10061 3753 10105
      3826 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 254DEG 29KT 3825 10144 3765 10098

RUSSELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
516 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ043>045-063-182300-
Finney KS-Lane KS-Scott KS-Ness KS-
516 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL FINNEY...WEST
CENTRAL NESS...SCOTT AND LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 516 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Friend, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Dighton, Alamota, Grigston, Scott State Lake, Modoc,
Shallow Water, Manning, Beeler, Amy, Healy, Friend and Shields.

LAT...LON 3870 10066 3848 10008 3814 10071 3828 10109
      3870 10107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 229DEG 30KT 3828 10076

RUSSELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
547 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

KSZ043>045-063-064-182315-
Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Lane KS-Scott KS-Ness KS-
547 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...WESTERN
NESS...SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...LANE AND
NORTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 547 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Amy to 7 miles northeast of Charleston.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Dighton, Utica, Alamota, Grigston, Kalvesta, Beeler and Amy.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3869 10017 3801 10005 3800 10068 3846 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 232DEG 17KT 3843 10061 3796 10049

RUSSELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             3 S MEADE               37.24N 100.34W
05/18/2019  M2.00 INCH       MEADE              KS   STORM CHASER

&&

RB