Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Dodge City, KS

845 
WWUS53 KDDC 290534
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1234 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

KSC145-165-290600-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190429T0600Z/
Pawnee KS-Rush KS-
1234 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES...

At 1233 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Shaffer,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Otis, Bison, Timken, Ash Valley and Shaffer. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9935 3841 9927 3854 9926 3856 9903
      3828 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0533Z 274DEG 37KT 3839 9912 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

RBURG

169 
WWUS53 KDDC 290551
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1251 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

KSC145-165-290600-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0014.000000T0000Z-190429T0600Z/
Pawnee KS-Rush KS-
1251 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3827 9935 3841 9927 3854 9926 3856 9903
      3828 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 274DEG 36KT 3838 9891 

$$

RBURG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Severe weather chances tonight followed by a much colder, cloudy,
and windy Monday.

A shortwave moving out of eastern Colorado into western Kansas
will interact with a narrow instability axis along the border late
this afternoon. Dew points have risen into the lower to mid 50s
along the border with more lower level moisture expected to be
transported from Oklahoma into the rest of the region by this
evening. The downside to storms at least in the southern half of
the area will be a strong CAP for the whole area through the time
period.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon both in
northwest Kansas/northeast Colorado and southeast Colorado. Storms
in the southern parts of Colorado are mainly going to be discrete
supercells as they track into the southern half of southwest
Kansas. The northern storms are expected to evolve into a MCS line
along I-70 by this evening and continue into central Kansas for
the overnight. If the supercells can develop and get east of
highway 283 this evening...this will be the time they can interact
with the moisture coming in from Oklahoma. With good shear any
discrete supercell that can develop will have the possibility of
large hail (tennis ball or larger) and isolated tornadoes. The
northern storms won't have as robust of moisture to work with as
they move into the I-70 corridor. Inverted v soundings have been
the case so the biggest threat with those storms will be downburst
winds (70+ mph) and hail up to the size of golf balls.

Confidence will be greatest with the northern MCS line
occurring...much lower confidence for the super cell chances
tonight with the CAP. However if the supercells can form the
impacts in these isolated areas will be the greatest.

Once the convection moves out by midnight a strong cold front will
race through southwest Kansas increasing the winds out of the
north 25-40 mph with higher gusts. Post frontal stratus will
overtake the area through much of the day. 850 mb temps will be in
the 4-7 (C) range through the day. High temperatures will struggle
to get to the 60s by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

A fairly active long term forecast is upcoming with periodic
chances of storms all the way through next weekend.

Monday night the combination of a warm front lifting back in from
Oklahoma and a strong shortwave coming over the Colorado Rockies
into western Kansas will introduce more chances of rain and storms
starting around midnight for our southeast zones and overspreading
the entire region by Tuesday morning. With rain and clouds
expected through the day Tuesday another cool afternoon is
expected with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The next shortwave combining with a strong cold front will come in
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This setup could
potentially be another marginal severe risk given the strong
baroclinic zone combining with the upper level forcing. A lot will
depend on how much sun we can get through the day and if winds can
turn more southeasterly by Wednesday afternoon.

Next chance of rain looks to be Thursday night into Friday morning
with another shortwave racing out of Colorado. The location of
this wave would put more of the northern areas in the path of some
rain and storms.

More shortwaves are in the forecast from both long term models for
Saturday and Sunday which will give us more chances of storms both
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019

Storms continue to move off to the east now. This activity will continue
to drift out of the area over the next few hours. MVFR cigs will be
possible through the overnight in association with post frontal stratus.
Improvement back to VFR is expected later in the morning. Otherwise,
with fropa through the overnight winds will switch N 20-30 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  59  46  65 /  30  10  70  50
GCK  46  57  44  62 /  40  10  70  40
EHA  44  59  44  71 /  10  10  70  20
LBL  48  59  46  70 /  10  10  70  30
HYS  45  58  42  56 /  70  10  70  60
P28  55  60  52  70 /  30  10  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019 /1155 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Two areas of severe weather are possible from 6-10 pm. The first
area will be along the I-70 corridor and the main threat will be
downburst winds potentially around 70 mph and hail to the size of
golfballs. Confidence is greatest with this area of storms. The
second area will be 1 or 2 discrete supercells developing along
and south of highway 50 near the Colorado border. As they move
east of highway 283 they will interact with a moist environment
and good shear which could produce hail tennis ball or greater and
isolated tornadoes. This area has less confidence due to a strong
cap however if a storm can develop it will produce the greater
impacts.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed mainly between 6-10 pm tonight
for areas along the I-70 corridor and along and east of highway
283.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1126 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             5 NE LARNED             38.23N 99.03W
04/28/2019  M1.25 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1145 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             6 E ASH VALLEY          38.31N 99.10W
04/28/2019  M1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1151 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             5 W HUDSON              38.10N 98.75W
04/28/2019  E1.00 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1155 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

KSZ045-046-065-290530-
Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Ness KS-
1155 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NESS...NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE AND RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1155 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alexander, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Crosse, Bazine, Otis, Bison, McCracken, Rush Center, Liebenthal,
Timken, Alexander, Ash Valley, Loretta, Nekoma, Hargrave and Shaffer.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central and central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3847 9903 3820 9914 3833 9988 3869 9956
      3869 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 296DEG 33KT 3849 9958

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1158 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             1 N NESS CITY           38.47N 99.91W
04/28/2019  M0.88 INCH       NESS               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1159 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N NESS CITY           38.47N 99.91W
04/28/2019  E55 MPH          NESS               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND GUSTS RANGED FROM 50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

RB