Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Dodge City, KS

308 
WWUS53 KDDC 290316
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1016 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

KSC051-165-290400-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190429T0400Z/
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
1016 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN ELLIS COUNTIES...

At 1016 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Emmeram to near Timken, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, La Crosse, Victoria, Walker, Catherine, Otis, Bison,
Schoenchen, Rush Center, Liebenthal, Timken, Emmeram, Munjor,
Loretta, Pfeifer, Toulon, Shaffer and Antonino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3843 9903 3840 9945 3894 9935 3901 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 250DEG 35KT 3895 9917 3850 9915 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SUGDEN

561 
WWUS53 KDDC 290330
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1030 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

KSC051-165-290340-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190429T0400Z/
Rush KS-Ellis KS-
1030 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL RUSH AND SOUTHEASTERN
ELLIS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3843 9903 3840 9945 3894 9935 3901 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 249DEG 32KT 3899 9904 3854 9902 

$$

FINCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
628 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

Severe weather chances tonight followed by a much colder, cloudy,
and windy Monday.

A shortwave moving out of eastern Colorado into western Kansas
will interact with a narrow instability axis along the border late
this afternoon. Dew points have risen into the lower to mid 50s
along the border with more lower level moisture expected to be
transported from Oklahoma into the rest of the region by this
evening. The downside to storms at least in the southern half of
the area will be a strong CAP for the whole area through the time
period.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon both in
northwest Kansas/northeast Colorado and southeast Colorado. Storms
in the southern parts of Colorado are mainly going to be discrete
supercells as they track into the southern half of southwest
Kansas. The northern storms are expected to evolve into a MCS line
along I-70 by this evening and continue into central Kansas for
the overnight. If the supercells can develop and get east of
highway 283 this evening...this will be the time they can interact
with the moisture coming in from Oklahoma. With good shear any
discrete supercell that can develop will have the possibility of
large hail (tennis ball or larger) and isolated tornadoes. The
northern storms won't have as robust of moisture to work with as
they move into the I-70 corridor. Inverted v soundings have been
the case so the biggest threat with those storms will be downburst
winds (70+ mph) and hail up to the size of golf balls.

Confidence will be greatest with the northern MCS line
occurring...much lower confidence for the super cell chances
tonight with the CAP. However if the supercells can form the
impacts in these isolated areas will be the greatest.

Once the convection moves out by midnight a strong cold front will
race through southwest Kansas increasing the winds out of the
north 25-40 mph with higher gusts. Post frontal stratus will
overtake the area through much of the day. 850 mb temps will be in
the 4-7 (C) range through the day. High temperatures will struggle
to get to the 60s by afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

A fairly active long term forecast is upcoming with periodic
chances of storms all the way through next weekend.

Monday night the combination of a warm front lifting back in from
Oklahoma and a strong shortwave coming over the Colorado Rockies
into western Kansas will introduce more chances of rain and storms
starting around midnight for our southeast zones and overspreading
the entire region by Tuesday morning. With rain and clouds
expected through the day Tuesday another cool afternoon is
expected with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The next shortwave combining with a strong cold front will come in
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This setup could
potentially be another marginal severe risk given the strong
baroclinic zone combining with the upper level forcing. A lot will
depend on how much sun we can get through the day and if winds can
turn more southeasterly by Wednesday afternoon.

Next chance of rain looks to be Thursday night into Friday morning
with another shortwave racing out of Colorado. The location of
this wave would put more of the northern areas in the path of some
rain and storms.

More shortwaves are in the forecast from both long term models for
Saturday and Sunday which will give us more chances of storms both
days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

A strong cold front will cross north central and southwest Kansas
between 03z and 09z Monday. As this frontal boundary passes the
southerly winds will shift to the north and increase into near 25
knots. Low level moisture will also be on the increase behind this
cold front overnight which will result in widespread MVFR and
patchy IFR ceilings late tonight and early Monday morning. Prior
to the cold frontal passage scattered thunderstorms can be
expected at Hays, Garden City and near the Dodge City. In and near
these storms low VFR ceilings and strong gusty winds will be
possible, especially around the Hays area. At Dodge City and
Liberal a strong low level just will develop early this evening so
did include a wind shear group for these two TAF sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  59  46  65 /  30  10  70  50
GCK  46  57  44  62 /  40  10  70  40
EHA  44  59  44  71 /  10  10  70  20
LBL  48  59  46  70 /  10  10  70  30
HYS  45  58  42  56 /  70  10  70  60
P28  55  60  52  70 /  30  10  70  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291800-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
1255 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2019 /1155 AM MDT Sun Apr 28 2019/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Two areas of severe weather are possible from 6-10 pm. The first
area will be along the I-70 corridor and the main threat will be
downburst winds potentially around 70 mph and hail to the size of
golfballs. Confidence is greatest with this area of storms. The
second area will be 1 or 2 discrete supercells developing along
and south of highway 50 near the Colorado border. As they move
east of highway 283 they will interact with a moist environment
and good shear which could produce hail tennis ball or greater and
isolated tornadoes. This area has less confidence due to a strong
cap however if a storm can develop it will produce the greater
impacts.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  No hazards.

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed mainly between 6-10 pm tonight
for areas along the I-70 corridor and along and east of highway
283.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
845 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     HAIL             DIGHTON                 38.48N 100.47W
04/28/2019  M1.00 INCH       LANE               KS   STORM CHASER

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
859 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNW ARNOLD            38.71N 100.10W
04/28/2019  E65 MPH          TREGO              KS   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATE 60 TO 70 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
942 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     DIGHTON                 38.48N 100.47W
04/28/2019  M58 MPH          LANE               KS   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DW9499 DIGHTON.

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
947 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     HAIL             6 N BAZINE              38.53N 99.69W
04/28/2019  M1.00 INCH       NESS               KS   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
954 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND GST     NESS CITY               38.45N 99.91W
04/28/2019  E75 MPH          NESS               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
955 PM CDT SUN APR 28 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     HAIL             ALEXANDER               38.47N 99.55W
04/28/2019  M1.75 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

&&