Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
329 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 324 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT TILL 10 PM MDT...

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for Goshen, Laramie,
and Platte Counties in Wyoming and for Banner, Box Butte,
Cheyenne, Kimball, Morrill, Scotts Bluff, and Sioux Counties in
Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Looks like one more round of storms late this afternoon into this
evening with some strong to severe storms expected as well. Most
likely areas for severe storms appears to be from extreme se Wy
across the southern Neb Panhandle where better instability should
exist. Does appear storms will exit the CWA by late this evening
leaving quiet conditions for the rest of the night.

A drying pattern should begin over the CWA on Saturday as more
westerly flow sets up over the area. Could be a few storms once
again over the plains but instability should be less so severe
threat more marginal. Quiet again Saturday night then even drier
air spreads in Sunday boding for a dry and very warm day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

An upper high will build a bit over the Co/NM border area early
next week keeping very warm and dry conditions in place Monday.
Chances for convection begin a return Tuesday as moisture begins
to increase from the south. Could see a backdoor cool front move
into the area later Tuesday through Weds which may increase
convection before a drier regime return for late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Another round of afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected
today. Storms may be a little further south today...impacting the
I-80 corridor from KSNY to KLAR. Latest HRRR showing IFR/LIFR
conditions returning to the southern Panhandle over to KCYS
tonight. Some questions on this happening as LAMP winds showing a
west/downsloping component. But for now...will go with persistence
and keep the lower conditions in the TAFS for KSNY/KBFF and KCYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

Near critical to critical conditions will continue to occur over
far western areas in the afternoons and early evenings through
Sunday with dry air and gusty winds expected. Lighter winds are
expected east of the mountains. There will be isolated showers and
storms into this evening and possibly again Saturday afternoon
then mainly dry and very warm conditions are expected Sunday into
early next week.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ304.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for WYZ304.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for WYZ304.

NE...None.
&&

UPDATE...WM
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
319 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ106>108-117>119-172130-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
319 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM, except for
Dawes County. Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms through
this evening, with some severe thunderstorms possible. The main
threats will be large hail and strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms continue into Saturday, with
the best possibility of severe thunderstorms generally across the
Nebraska Panhandle. Dry and breezy conditions set in Sunday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation may be needed.

WYZ101>105-109>116-172130-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-
319 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Wyoming...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening.
Dry and windy conditions are expected across Carbon County with a
Red Flag Warning in place for the far southwestern portion of
Carbon County until 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Dry and windy conditions persist into the weekend and for the
beginning part of the week. Fire Weather Watches are in place for
far southwest Carbon County both Saturday and Sunday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Rubin

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
457 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

WYZ102-162345-
Niobrara County WY-
457 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 456 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mule Creek Junction, or 27 miles west of Edgemont, moving east at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mule Creek Junction.

LAT...LON 4321 10405 4338 10456 4350 10462 4350 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 283DEG 22KT 4340 10436

Cox

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
518 PM MDT FRI AUG 16 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE BUFORD            41.12N 105.28W
08/16/2019  M61 MPH          ALBANY             WY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WY37 1 ESE BUFORD - BUFORD
            EAST - BFE.

&&

WM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
523 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

WYZ108-118-119-170015-
Goshen County WY-Central Laramie County WY-East Laramie County WY-
523 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GOSHEN AND
NORTHEASTERN LARAMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 523 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Meriden Rest Area, or 34 miles south of Torrington, moving east at 25
mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Grange.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
southeastern Wyoming.

LAT...LON 4157 10453 4170 10450 4170 10406 4151 10406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 270DEG 24KT 4160 10442

Cox