Severe Thunderstorm Warning 342, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1157 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Please see updated 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

A couple strong to severe storms moving across northern Goshen
county presently. These likely set off by the southern fringe of a
shortwave moving across South Dakota as well as a diffuse outflow
boundary. Some question as to how far they will progress into the
Panhandle the rest of the afternoon. Of more concern is the
likelihood for another round of strong convection later this
evening/tonight up north as another shortwave passes by, a
similar setup to last night. Activity should move out of the CWA
very late tonight or early Friday morning.

Friday and Saturday will continue to have a chance for convection
mainly east of the mtns but should be isolated. Sufficient shear
and instability for a few strong to severe storms but forcing
remaining rather low.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

A warmer and mainly dry weather regime should build into the area
Sunday into early next as the upper high builds over the region
and the stronger westerlies lift well north of the area. Chances
for isolated mainly late day showers and storms should return by
midweek as a bit of moisture lifts northward into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Main aviation impacts continue to be the strong to severe TSRA
moving east in far east Wyoming and will then shift into the
northern Nebraska Panhandle over the next 3-4 hours. Large Hail,
strong, turbulent winds, and frequent lightning are occurring
with these storms. Direct TAF impacts are likely at KCDR and KAIA.
In addition, KBFF may be impacted again in the next 3 hours as
well. Will closely monitor amendments for GR additions. Have
placed TEMPO and direct TSRA wording in TAFs. FL650 storm tops
with the strongest of storms through 11Z. All storms will shift
east into Central Nebraska after 11-12Z with calmer rest of the
morning anticipated. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will again
develop Friday afternoon near KLAR/KCYS/KSNY with more limited
coverage farther north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Little change is seen in the weather conditions through the
weekend with critical to near critical conditions looking to
remain confined to southwestern Carbon county. Another round of
showers and storms is expected mainly over east central Wyoming
across the northern Nebraska panhandle tonight with more isolated
activity east of the mountains Friday and Saturday. Mainly dry
and warmer conditions will move in Sunday and continue into early
next week.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for WYZ304.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 5am for
portions of Southeast Wyoming.

NE...Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 5am for
portions of the Nebraska Panhandle.

&&

UPDATE...JSA
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...JSA
FIRE WEATHER...RE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1043 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

NEZ002-003-019-021-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-161000-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Morrill-North Sioux-South Sioux-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-
1043 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with a few
strong storms possible. A somewhat greater threat for scattered
strong to severe storms is expected later tonight with large hail
the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Widely scattered showers and storms are expected mainly on Friday,
with a few of the storms possibly becoming severe, mainly over the
Nebraska Panhandle.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NEZ020-054-055-WYZ103>106-109>119-161000-
Banner-Kimball-Cheyenne-North Laramie Range-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
1043 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...south central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening
but the severe threat is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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