Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
535 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for most of Southeast
Wyoming (minus Carbon County) and entire Nebraska Panhandle
through 9pm. Main hazards will be large hail (upwards of golfball
to baseball size), damaging 60-70 mph winds, and a tornado or two
could be possible. In addition, localized heavy rainfall and storm
training could cause flash flooding concerns. Please stay alert
through the afternoon and evening as storm hazards develop. Storms
will dissipate and shift east through the mid to late evening
hours.

MLCAPE instability continues to grow upwards of 1500-2000 J/Kg
with some slight implied capping in place per mesoanalysis and
latest satellite trends. The first round of storms initially fired
over the higher terrain now have orphaned anvils that are crossing
into the High Plains. Of interesting note is the dissipating anvil
over Laramie County is suppressing the cumulus field below while
forming a localized boundary moving east. This boundary has
cleared out northwest Laramie County well for greater insolation.
However, this also veered the winds almost westerly in this local
area. Will need to see if greater S/SE flow can get re-established
in this area. Farther north and east, low-level winds remain
backed to SSE/SE, especially across the NE Panhandle with some
east winds near Scottsbluff. Effective deep layer shear remains
near 40 knots along the Laramie Range with lower values in NE
Panhandle. However, expect higher amounts of shear over NE
Panhandle next 6 hours. All of these factors combined, deep robust
rotating updrafts will be likely this afternoon and evening supporting
large hail.

Tornado potential continues to look marginal as low-level wind
shear remains below 100 m2/s2 but localized enhancements near
boundaries or isolated supercells could perhaps ingest enough
helicity for low-level vertical stretching. A weak/brief tornado
or two can't be fully ruled out.

Storm mode should initially be discrete to semi-discrete
supercells that grow upscale into a cluster or possibly into a
cold pool balanced complex as they move east into NE Panhandle.
Risk for localized flooding could be maximized in NE Panhandle due
to clustering and possible training of storms with mixing ratios
of 10-12 in place.

Slightly greater ridging will occur Sunday but a marginal risk for
severe storms is also in place for portions of the area. H5 winds
will be lower along with deep layer shear being weaker. However,
compensating instability could still help decent storm updrafts
for hail and wind hazard risks.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019

Widely sctd convection ending over the CWA Monday night but
returning again Tuesday afternoon as a shortwave moves east across
the region. A few strong storms possible though better dynamics
look to be more to the north. After that a somewhat drier weather
regime expected to set up over the region as an upper high builds
over the southern Rockys Weds and remains there for the rest of
the week. Weak disturbances riding over the top of the high will
still set off some mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms
most days but should be more on an isolated basis. Temps
generally close to seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 524 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019

Thunderstorms have begun across the high terrain between KRWL and
KLAR. Storms will continue to move eastward toward the NE
Panhandle terminals after 00Z. Gusty winds and reduced visibility
can be expected with these storms into this evening with KBFF and
KSNY most at risk for thunderstorm activity. After the storms move
out of the area, lower ceilings may creep into the NE Panhandle
early Sunday morning. The HRRR has been bringing in lower
ceilings and visibility to KCYS after 08Z the last few runs. Will
continue to monitor these trends into this evening in case a
further lowering of flight category in the TAF is needed.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019

Limited fire weather concerns today with area showers and
thunderstorms across much of the area and higher then normal
relative humidity values. One concern will be localized fire
starts from lightning activity today but most thunderstorms should
have some rain opposed to dry lightning situation.

Isolated elevated fire weather conditions will occur Sunday
into Monday mainly across Carbon County due to elevated winds
and humidity values falling to 20 percent.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JSA
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...MB
FIRE WEATHER...JSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
318 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-072130-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-North Laramie Range-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
318 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the entire Nebraska
Panhandle and Southeast Wyoming, minus Carbon County. Large hail
up to the size of baseball, damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph winds,
and a tornado or two could be possible. In addition, heavy
rainfall leading to localized flash flooding could also occur,
especially towards the Wyoming to Nebraska Border and into the
southern and central Panhandle. Storms will dissipate and shift
east through the mid to late evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Strong to severe storms will again be possible for east Wyoming
and the Nebraska Panhandle. Pea to quarter size hail, 30 to 50 mph
winds, and frequent lightning could be possible during the
afternoon and evening hours.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening and
possibly again on Sunday.

Allen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
657 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             6 N LARAMIE             41.40N 105.59W
07/06/2019  M0.88 INCH       ALBANY             WY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

WM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
659 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             2 WSW LARAMIE           41.30N 105.62W
07/06/2019  M1.00 INCH       ALBANY             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE ROAD AT THE
            CORNER OF SCHERER AND RIVERSIDE IN WEST
            LARAMIE.

&&

CW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
702 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             LARAMIE                 41.31N 105.59W
07/06/2019  M0.88 INCH       ALBANY             WY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
708 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             2 NE LARAMIE            41.33N 105.56W
07/06/2019  M1.00 INCH       ALBANY             WY   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED PHOTO VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
709 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             2 NNE LARAMIE           41.33N 105.58W
07/06/2019  M1.75 INCH       ALBANY             WY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

WM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
712 PM MDT SAT JUL 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     HAIL             1 SE LARAMIE            41.30N 105.57W
07/06/2019  M1.00 INCH       ALBANY             WY   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

MB