Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Cheyenne, WY

426 
WGUS55 KCYS 072155
FFWCYS
WYC021-080130-
/O.EXT.KCYS.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-190708T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
355 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

The National Weather Service in Cheyenne has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  West central Laramie County in southeastern Wyoming...

* Until 730 PM MDT.

* At 353 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have 
  already fallen. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through the 
  afternoon. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Horse Creek.

LAT...LON 4147 10500 4139 10499 4137 10516 4145 10520

$$

Worley

393 
WGUS75 KCYS 072351
FFSCYS

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
551 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

WYC021-080001-
/O.CAN.KCYS.FF.W.0020.000000T0000Z-190708T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Laramie WY-
551 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any road closures.

LAT...LON 4147 10500 4139 10499 4137 10516 4145 10520

$$

Worley

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1137 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Current IR Satellite loop across the northern and central Rockies
show clearing skies behind the strong line of thunderstorms which
quickly moved across the eastern plains of Wyoming/southern
Nebraska panhandle late yesterday evening, producing an inch or
two of rain in many locations along with severe weather. Should
not be quite as busy today across the area, since instability will
be a bit less due to warmer air aloft moving into the region.
Another weak shortwave should also keep a marginal risk of strong
to severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains, but the dynamic
forcing associated with the wave should not be quite as potent
compared to yesterday. SB CAPE should be sufficient enough to
produce several stronger thunderstorms today, but 0-6km shear
will be marginal through most of the day. In addition, some drier
air will move east across Wyoming which should limit stronger
thunderstorms to locations east of I-25. Otherwise, kept patchy
fog in the forecast this morning for the areas that received quite
a bit of rainfall yesterday. Temperatures should rebound today
after relatively cool conditions yesterday, with highs generally
in the 80s over most areas.

Several 00z models are hinting at severe thunderstorms returning
to the area on Monday as another potent upper level disturbance
moves northeast across the area. Shear profiles will be more
favorable even with modest instability. The only issue will be the
timing of the disturbance/wave aloft, which models suggest will
be earlier in the day. Subsidence and drying behind the
disturbance may keep convection weak if it pushes through the area
relatively early in the day. Kept POP and chance for thunder
between 30 to 50 percent, mainly further south and east into
western Nebraska, with values below 25 percent further north.

For Tuesday, models show the main upper level trough across
Montana ejecting east into the northern plains. Expect winds to
increase ahead and behind a surface cold front, which will
result in some downslope and additional drying of the boundary
layer. Expect only some isolated thunder showers Tuesday afternoon
and evening, mainly east of the Laramie Range, with the best
chance well to the north, closer to the main upper level trough.
This should start a few days of drier weather with limited
thunderstorm coverage. The cold front will keep temperatures near
or slightly below average for this time of the year, but it will
still be pleasant. The only exception to this is west of the
Laramie Range, where westerly winds may gust as high as 30-35 mph
Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Convection looks to become somewhat more isolated over the CWA
this period as an upper high builds over the CO/NM area Weds and
holds in that general area into the weekend. A bit more widespread
late day showers and storms Friday and Saturday as a couple
stronger impulses ride over the top of the high. Otherwise warm
through the period with temperatures a bit above seasonal averages
for the latter part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Latest convective allowing models are suggesting a bit more
coverage Laramie east to the southern half of the Nebraska
Panhandle than was previously thought for this afternoon and
evening. With that in mind, we will add in some vicinity
thunderstorms to Laramie, Cheyenne, Scottsbluff Alliance and
Sidney, mainly for the 1400-2000 MDT timeframe Laramie, and
starting later as you go east into the Panhandle. Most of any
storms should clear out by 2200-2300 MDT in the eastern areas.
Storm coverages today should be more scattered than we saw
yesterday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

Fire weather concerns will remain low this weekend and through
early to middle next week due to green fuels and recent
precipitation. Daytime humidities over 30 percent are expected
across the eastern plains with humidities occasionally lowering
into the teens across Carbon county. Humidities will trend lower
by mid to late next week as a strong upper level high pressure
builds over the central and southern Rockies.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...JG
FIRE WEATHER...TJT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
222 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-106>108-116>119-
082030-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff-Banner-Morrill-Kimball-Cheyenne-
North Sioux-South Sioux-Converse County Lower Elevations-
Niobrara County-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-South Laramie Range-
South Laramie Range Foothills-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
222 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of western
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and this evening. Frequent lightning, strong gusty
winds, and hail will be possible with these thunderstorms as they
move east across the plains. Flash flooding may also be a concern
with any slow moving storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms again Monday afternoon
and evening. Low risk for severe thunderstorms beyond Monday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon and evening.

WYZ103>105-109>115-082030-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
222 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this
evening. Small hail and gusty winds are possible with the stronger
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Scattered strong thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. Low
risk for severe thunderstorms beyond Monday.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1022 AM MDT SUN JUL 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 PM     TORNADO          13 ESE CHUGWATER        41.66N 104.61W
07/06/2019                   GOSHEN             WY   STORM CHASER

            RECEIVED VIDEO ON FACEBOOK OF A FEW BRIEF
            SPINUPS, INCLUDING ONE FULLY CONDENSED
            TORNADO. CHASER WAS ON WY 313 EAST OF
            CHUGWATER LOOKING APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES TO
            THE SOUTH.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1209 PM MDT SUN JUL 7 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     HAIL             2 ENE ROCK RIVER        41.74N 105.94W
07/06/2019  M1.25 INCH       ALBANY             WY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS OBSERVER WY-AB-170. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
154 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

WYZ116>118-072045-
South Laramie Range WY-Central Laramie County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
154 PM MDT Sun Jul 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

At 153 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Horse Creek, or 25 miles east of Laramie, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Horse Creek.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 31 and
43.

LAT...LON 4135 10513 4146 10525 4165 10492 4147 10473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 233DEG 5KT 4144 10512