Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
146 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance, will bring showers and
thunderstorms, through this evening. A passing cold front,
could bring scattered showers on Monday. Behind this system, the
mid week period looks dry, and a bit cooler.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 pm update... As expected, convection is beginning to fire
over the ridges early this afternoon. Storms should
intensify/grow upscale as they develop eastward through late
in the day/early evening. Isolated occurrences of strong winds
and hail are still anticipated, as the air mass rapidly
destabilizes, and marginally favorable low to mid-level shear is
in place. We'll continue to monitor closely for the rest of the
day for potential severe storms.

Tonight, scattered showers and isolated storms may well
continue, as the main cold front slowly approaches from the
west. It will stay warm and muggy overnight, with lows only in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1250 pm update... Near-term guidance remains in good agreement
that the surface cold front will slice through the Commonwealth
from W-E on Monday. Although hit and miss showers/isolated
storms are expected just about anytime along and ahead of the
front, any more robust thunderstorms should from primarily over
the eastern third of PA. Highs will still reach the lower 70s-
lower 80s on Monday, as cooler air lags a bit behind the
boundary.

Monday night, outside of some potential post-frontal
stratocumulus clouds across northwestern PA for a time, skies
should generally clear out, as a cooler and drier air mass comes
in. Lows by daybreak should cool into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strong cold front will move across the region Monday and much
cooler and drier air will move into the area for Tuesday.

Gusty winds will be the issue later Monday into perhaps the
first part of Tuesday, but overall Tuesday will be a decent
late May day.

Will have dry weather on Tuesday and most if not of all of
Wednesday, but will have to watch low temperatures and the
start of the growing season.

Some showers and maybe a few storms late in the week, as the
warm and more humid air returns to central PA.

Temperatures by late in the week will be well above normal
again.

The next cold front moves southeast into the area this weekend.
Still a lot of spread in the details, as models having problems
with the very active weather pattern and the abnormally strong
systems moving northeast.

Overall some minor adjustments made to the forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18z update... Outside of thunderstorms this afternoon/early
evening (which would lower conditions to fuel alternate or
worse for a brief time), most terminal sites should stay in the
VFR range through the valid TAF period.

The exceptions to the above are KBFD and KJST, where some lower
clouds (MVFR-fuel alternate) are anticipated later tonight into
early Monday, near the incoming cold frontal boundary.

S-SW surface winds of 5-15 kt (occasionally gusty) through most
of tonight, will veer more westerly on Monday.

.Outlook...

Mon...Restrictions possible from early morning lower ceilings
and midday-afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR.

Thu into Fri...Isolated to scattered restrictions possible from
potential showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Jurewicz/RXR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
245 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ006-011-012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-200200-
Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
245 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-010-200200-
Warren-McKean-Elk-
245 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
133 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ024>026-191800-
Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
133 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...BLAIR...
AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 133 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Horseshoe Curve, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Altoona around 145 PM EDT.
  Blandburg around 150 PM EDT.
  Bellwood around 155 PM EDT.
  Tyrone, Tipton and Sinking Valley around 200 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Tunnelhill, Ashville,
Chest Springs, Penn State Altoona and Delgrosso's Amusement Park.

LAT...LON 4060 7863 4073 7837 4073 7836 4074 7835
      4074 7813 4069 7794 4070 7792 4064 7788
      4044 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 242DEG 21KT 4056 7849

Jurewicz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
201 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ024-191830-
Cambria PA-
201 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CAMBRIA COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

At 200 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Loretto, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Patton, Carrolltown, Prince Gallitzin State Park and Chest Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 7864 4073 7862 4067 7843 4049 7868
      4051 7877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 216DEG 31KT 4054 7868

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
210 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ025-026-191900-
Blair PA-Huntingdon PA-
210 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON AND BLAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 209 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Bellwood, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Tyrone, Bald Eagle, Bellwood, Warriors Mark, Tipton,
Birmingham, Franklinville, Sinking Valley, Delgrosso's Amusement Park
and Penn State Altoona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 7845 4074 7828 4074 7813 4070 7798
      4051 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 235DEG 29KT 4057 7835

Colbert/MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
249 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ019-191930-
Southern Centre PA-
249 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRE COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM EDT...

At 249 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Ramblewood, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
State College, Bellefonte, Park Forest Village, Boalsburg, Pleasant
Gap, Stormstown, Lemont, Zion, Houserville, Pine Grove Mills, Centre
Hall, Ramblewood, Potters Mills, Rock Springs, Tussey Mountain Ski
Area, Pennsylvania State University, Pennsylvania Military Museum and
University Park Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 7809 4077 7807 4095 7769 4082 7756
      4073 7781 4074 7783 4069 7794
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 241DEG 29KT 4074 7796

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
253 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ037-191945-
Tioga PA-
253 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF TIOGA COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Leonard Harrison State Park, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Wellsboro, Morris, Blossburg, Covington, Arnot, Leonard
Harrison State Park, Roseville and Mansfield University.

LAT...LON 4197 7693 4196 7692 4170 7689 4156 7737
      4166 7749
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 241DEG 28KT 4164 7737

Colbert