Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS State College, PA

May 19, 2019Franklin County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 19, 2019, 2:42 PM EDT for Franklin County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 19, 2019, 2:42 PM EDT (18:42 UTC)
Expired: May 19, 2019, 3:30 PM EDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS State College, PA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

County Franklin County, PA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 37 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 19, 2:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 100 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 107 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -262 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 916 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

010 
WUUS51 KCTP 191842
SVRCTP
PAC055-191930-
/O.NEW.KCTP.SV.W.0033.190519T1842Z-190519T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
242 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Franklin County in south central Pennsylvania...

* Until 330 PM EDT.

* At 242 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southwest
  of Claylick, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
           mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Claylick and Mercersburg around 300 PM EDT.
  Greencastle around 310 PM EDT.
  Waynesboro and Marion around 320 PM EDT.
  Chambersburg, Fayetteville, Guilford, Mont Alto and Scotland 
  around 330 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Williamson, Upton, State Line, Quincy, Penn State Mont Alto and
Whitetail Ski Area.

This includes Interstate 81 from mile markers 1 to 21.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7807 4003 7761 3987 7746 3979 7746
      3972 7762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 234DEG 27KT 3968 7797 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Jurewicz

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 19, 1:46 PM EDT, 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 19, 1:46 PM EDT, 56 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
146 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance, will bring showers and
thunderstorms, through this evening. A passing cold front,
could bring scattered showers on Monday. Behind this system, the
mid week period looks dry, and a bit cooler.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 pm update... As expected, convection is beginning to fire
over the ridges early this afternoon. Storms should
intensify/grow upscale as they develop eastward through late
in the day/early evening. Isolated occurrences of strong winds
and hail are still anticipated, as the air mass rapidly
destabilizes, and marginally favorable low to mid-level shear is
in place. We'll continue to monitor closely for the rest of the
day for potential severe storms.

Tonight, scattered showers and isolated storms may well
continue, as the main cold front slowly approaches from the
west. It will stay warm and muggy overnight, with lows only in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
1250 pm update... Near-term guidance remains in good agreement
that the surface cold front will slice through the Commonwealth
from W-E on Monday. Although hit and miss showers/isolated
storms are expected just about anytime along and ahead of the
front, any more robust thunderstorms should from primarily over
the eastern third of PA. Highs will still reach the lower 70s-
lower 80s on Monday, as cooler air lags a bit behind the
boundary.

Monday night, outside of some potential post-frontal
stratocumulus clouds across northwestern PA for a time, skies
should generally clear out, as a cooler and drier air mass comes
in. Lows by daybreak should cool into the 40s and 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A strong cold front will move across the region Monday and much
cooler and drier air will move into the area for Tuesday.

Gusty winds will be the issue later Monday into perhaps the
first part of Tuesday, but overall Tuesday will be a decent
late May day.

Will have dry weather on Tuesday and most if not of all of
Wednesday, but will have to watch low temperatures and the
start of the growing season.

Some showers and maybe a few storms late in the week, as the
warm and more humid air returns to central PA.

Temperatures by late in the week will be well above normal
again.

The next cold front moves southeast into the area this weekend.
Still a lot of spread in the details, as models having problems
with the very active weather pattern and the abnormally strong
systems moving northeast.

Overall some minor adjustments made to the forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18z update... Outside of thunderstorms this afternoon/early
evening (which would lower conditions to fuel alternate or
worse for a brief time), most terminal sites should stay in the
VFR range through the valid TAF period.

The exceptions to the above are KBFD and KJST, where some lower
clouds (MVFR-fuel alternate) are anticipated later tonight into
early Monday, near the incoming cold frontal boundary.

S-SW surface winds of 5-15 kt (occasionally gusty) through most
of tonight, will veer more westerly on Monday.

.Outlook...

Mon...Restrictions possible from early morning lower ceilings
and midday-afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR.

Thu into Fri...Isolated to scattered restrictions possible from
potential showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Jurewicz
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Jurewicz/RXR

Hazardous weather outlook, May 19, 5:20 AM EDT, 9 hours 22 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
520 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-200930-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
520 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 19, 1:33 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
133 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ024>026-191800-
Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
133 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...BLAIR...
AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 133 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Horseshoe Curve, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Altoona around 145 PM EDT.
  Blandburg around 150 PM EDT.
  Bellwood around 155 PM EDT.
  Tyrone, Tipton and Sinking Valley around 200 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Tunnelhill, Ashville,
Chest Springs, Penn State Altoona and Delgrosso's Amusement Park.

LAT...LON 4060 7863 4073 7837 4073 7836 4074 7835
      4074 7813 4069 7794 4070 7792 4064 7788
      4044 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 242DEG 21KT 4056 7849

Jurewicz

Special weather statement, May 19, 2:01 PM EDT, 41 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
201 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ024-191830-
Cambria PA-
201 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CAMBRIA COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM EDT...

At 200 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Loretto, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Patton, Carrolltown, Prince Gallitzin State Park and Chest Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 7864 4073 7862 4067 7843 4049 7868
      4051 7877
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 216DEG 31KT 4054 7868

Colbert

Special weather statement, May 19, 2:10 PM EDT, 32 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
210 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

PAZ025-026-191900-
Blair PA-Huntingdon PA-
210 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON AND BLAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 209 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Bellwood, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Tyrone, Bald Eagle, Bellwood, Warriors Mark, Tipton,
Birmingham, Franklinville, Sinking Valley, Delgrosso's Amusement Park
and Penn State Altoona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 7845 4074 7828 4074 7813 4070 7798
      4051 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 235DEG 29KT 4057 7835

Colbert/MJ

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 18, 10:24 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Franklin	36 min
May 19, 1:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Blair	27 min
May 19, 2:01 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	29 min
May 19, 2:10 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Blair	50 min
May 19, 2:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Blair, Huntingdon	37 min
May 19, 2:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Franklin, Fulton	48 min
May 19, 2:49 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Centre	41 min
May 19, 2:53 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Tioga	52 min
May 19, 3:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Centre, Huntingdon, Mifflin	38 min
May 19, 3:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Tioga	65 min
May 19, 3:15 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Perry	45 min
May 19, 3:19 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	41 min
May 19, 3:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Franklin	52 min
May 19, 3:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Centre, Mifflin	48 min
May 19, 3:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Franklin, Juniata, Perry	46 min
May 19, 4:00 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lycoming	45 min
May 19, 4:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Franklin	23 min
May 19, 4:13 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Mifflin, Snyder, Union	47 min
May 19, 4:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Cumberland, Perry	52 min
May 19, 4:34 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CTP	Lycoming, Sullivan	26 min
May 19, 4:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Franklin	40 min
May 19, 4:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lycoming, Sullivan	35 min
May 19, 4:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Northumberland, Snyder, Union	49 min
May 19, 5:05 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Franklin	3 hr
May 19, 5:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Adams, Cumberland, Franklin	53 min
May 19, 5:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Dauphin, Lebanon	29 min
May 19, 5:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Sullivan	33 min
May 19, 5:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Schuylkill	45 min
May 19, 5:37 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CTP	Lebanon, Schuylkill	23 min
May 19, 5:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Cumberland, Franklin, Huntingdon, Juniata, Mifflin, Perry	30 min
May 19, 5:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lebanon, Schuylkill	58 min
May 19, 5:58 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Dauphin, Lebanon, Schuylkill	3 hr
May 19, 6:09 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Centre	51 min
May 19, 6:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, York	35 min
May 19, 6:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cumberland, Juniata, Perry	29 min
May 19, 6:21 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	Franklin	4 hr
May 19, 6:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Centre	32 min
May 19, 6:33 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	CTP	Blair, Huntingdon	3 hr
May 19, 6:34 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CTP	York	26 min
May 19, 6:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cambria	31 min
May 19, 6:56 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CTP	Lancaster, York	34 min
May 19, 6:57 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Adams, Cumberland	48 min
May 19, 7:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Cambria, Clearfield	49 min
May 19, 7:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lancaster	51 min
May 19, 7:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Lebanon	45 min
May 19, 7:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	York	43 min
May 19, 7:48 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Sullivan	27 min
May 19, 7:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Centre, Clinton	52 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2019 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.