Severe Thunderstorm Warning 249, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
804 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled
for the next several days. Temperatures will remain near normal
and it will be rather humid. By late in the weekend into early
next week look for hot and humid conditions, especially across
the southeast portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Updated grids across the north as of 7 PM.

Main band of showers and storms across the north.

Another small band on the east side of the mtns.

Still several severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings
in effect.

Winds aloft not real strong, and shear from sw to ne. This most
likely held amt of severe weather down, vs. more westerly shear
pattern.

Temperatures not real warm now. This should help storms to
weaken later this evening.

Main thing keeping storms going at this point is an old frontal
boundary and interaction of outflow boundaries.

Expect storms to weaken, but will take a few more hours.

With lows in the 60s, expect some lower clds and fog to form
later.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Weak upper troughing will once again tend to lead to mainly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms Friday. Models develop
moderate instability and shear so we could be looking at a
virtual repeat of today.

Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prevalent zonal west-southwest flow aloft will persist from
this weekend through the early part of next week before
significant pattern amplification unfolds over the CONUS. A
strong upper builds builds from the Four Corners region to the
south central Plains by mid week. Downstream upper troffing will
be prevalent over much of the GLAKS and eastern seaboard, with
perhaps a trend towards slightly less heat and humidity late
next week. It still looks quite warm however.

Initially, a very warm air mass should build north and east
into PA this weekend with heat indices by Sunday likely topping
90F over much of the southeast. Mainly diurnal convection
chances persist each day, although in this pattern most areas
will remain dry at any given time, and scattered
afternoon/evening variety is favored.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Adjusted TAFS at 00Z for current showers and storms.

Main issue after midnight will be fog and lower clds.

Last night was not as bad, as most areas had no rainfall on
Wed.

Expect conditions to improve by late Friday morning.

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms developing once
again Friday aft.

.Outlook...

Sat-Tue...VFR. Isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms
possible, mainly in the afternoon/early evening hours. Late
night and early morning fog/low clouds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Ross
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
328 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-161030-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
328 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into
early this evening across the region. Some storms could contain
damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Slow moving showers and storms along an old frontal boundary could
result in isolated heavy downpours. Areas that receive repeated
storms could have localized runoff issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Martin

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
904 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

PAZ036-056-063-160130-
Perry PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-
904 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF FRANKLIN...PERRY...AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

At 904 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near New Bloomfield to near Newville to Upper
Strasburg. Movement was southeast at 65 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colonel Denning State Park, Roxbury, Loysville, Willow Hill, Big
Spring State Park, Doylesburg, Fannettsburg, Ickesburg, Blain,
Landisburg and New Germantown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 7787 4021 7777 4030 7760 4054 7721
      4052 7713 4016 7745 4005 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 309DEG 56KT 4043 7723 4022 7746 4005 7773

Jung

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
910 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RENOVO                  41.33N  77.75W
08/15/2019                   CLINTON            PA   SOCIAL MEDIA

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 120.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901636

COLBERT