Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
804 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will keep the weather unsettled
for the next several days. Temperatures will remain near normal
and it will be rather humid. By late in the weekend into early
next week look for hot and humid conditions, especially across
the southeast portions of the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Updated grids across the north as of 7 PM.

Main band of showers and storms across the north.

Another small band on the east side of the mtns.

Still several severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings
in effect.

Winds aloft not real strong, and shear from sw to ne. This most
likely held amt of severe weather down, vs. more westerly shear
pattern.

Temperatures not real warm now. This should help storms to
weaken later this evening.

Main thing keeping storms going at this point is an old frontal
boundary and interaction of outflow boundaries.

Expect storms to weaken, but will take a few more hours.

With lows in the 60s, expect some lower clds and fog to form
later.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Weak upper troughing will once again tend to lead to mainly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms Friday. Models develop
moderate instability and shear so we could be looking at a
virtual repeat of today.

Highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Prevalent zonal west-southwest flow aloft will persist from
this weekend through the early part of next week before
significant pattern amplification unfolds over the CONUS. A
strong upper builds builds from the Four Corners region to the
south central Plains by mid week. Downstream upper troffing will
be prevalent over much of the GLAKS and eastern seaboard, with
perhaps a trend towards slightly less heat and humidity late
next week. It still looks quite warm however.

Initially, a very warm air mass should build north and east
into PA this weekend with heat indices by Sunday likely topping
90F over much of the southeast. Mainly diurnal convection
chances persist each day, although in this pattern most areas
will remain dry at any given time, and scattered
afternoon/evening variety is favored.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Adjusted TAFS at 00Z for current showers and storms.

Main issue after midnight will be fog and lower clds.

Last night was not as bad, as most areas had no rainfall on
Wed.

Expect conditions to improve by late Friday morning.

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms developing once
again Friday aft.

.Outlook...

Sat-Tue...VFR. Isolated-scattered showers/thunderstorms
possible, mainly in the afternoon/early evening hours. Late
night and early morning fog/low clouds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Martin
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Ross
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
328 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-161030-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
328 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible into
early this evening across the region. Some storms could contain
damaging winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Slow moving showers and storms along an old frontal boundary could
result in isolated heavy downpours. Areas that receive repeated
storms could have localized runoff issues.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Martin

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