Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1047 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will track across upstate
New York tonight, as the trailing cold front pushes through
Pennsylvania. Upper level ridging is expected over the region
during the middle of the week, then a slow-moving cold front
will likely push into the region late Friday into early
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Tornado Watch continues for most of the area, but the far NW
where the best instability has passed through as the main line
of damaging convection pushed past. Still strong shear and some
D-CAPE to be dealt with. Many spinning cells thus far, but no
specific reports of actual tornadoes. Big line is breaking up a
bit, but also accelerating. Thus, the threat for wind damage is
still on-going. The threat for tornadoes may be a little lower,
now, as the instability has waned, but the threat for tors
along/inside the main line remains high.

Expect sct shra thru the next few hours in the NW, but action
has shifted to the east. Expect the tiny cells over the central
counties to fill in and perhaps organize a bit - esp if they are
more in the north where the shear is best. Main shortwave which
forced the earlier convection in the SE has push most of that
to the NE and out of the area.

The main line should pass through the far SErn counties by
07-08Z right around end time of the watch. Will trim the watch
as necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Blustery and much cooler conditions are expected Monday, as
strengthening low pressure passes north of Pa. Passage of upper
trough will likely produce scattered rain/snow showers across
the Allegheny Plateau. However, surface temps should remain too
warm for any snow accumulations. A downsloping westerly flow
should result in dry weather across the Susq Valley. However,
cold temps aloft will likely result in a good deal of stratocu.
Bukfit soundings support wind gusts Monday afternoon close to
40kts across southern PA, so later shifts may need to consider
a possible wind advisory.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Left mentioned of some showers in for later Tuesday into Thursday.
Much of this time will be dry.

The main issue will be another huge weather system by Friday.
Showers and some thunderstorms will be associated with this
system.

For now, just minor adjustments.

For later Saturday into early next Monday, the risk of showers
tapers off. GFS and EC still different from run to run and day
to day, on how the upper level trough may split apart, and dig
southeast. This will make a difference on how things linger past
Friday.

Either way, not looking quite as cold as it did several days
ago. Thus the chance of any snow showers on the back side of the
storm is less now.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A line of showers adn thunderstorms is making its way across
central PA from 02Z until 10Z.
 It has caused a period of IFR and lower cigs and vsbys in
thunderstorms. Expect this to occur at all TAF sites at times
overnight. Light showers are out ahead of the line which will
mainly affect IPT and MDT.
 An area of showers behind the front will drop cigs and vsbys
Behind the front which is occurring at BFD.
Westerly flow will pick up with a period of gusts to 30-40 mph
Monday  along with ceiling restrictions that will be mainly
confined to the western/northern terrain.

.Outlook...

Mon...AM Rain and restrictions. Becoming windy.

Tue...Trending VFR; winds subsiding.

Wed-Thu...Chance of a shower. Mainly VFR.

Fri...Widespread restrictions likely with showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Main line has passed through the NW, but additional rainfall is
possible. Watch only goes through 2 AM, and rain poss thru then.
Will hold onto it there. Showers finally popping up in between
the SErn cluster and the big line, but not much QPF just yet.
HRRR continues heavy rain with the line, and threat for heavy
rain still goes for most of the night for the SE.

Prev...
0.75-0.90" of rainfall through the day today over the NW has
things very wet and many of the smallest waterways are likely
high/nearly full. The line of convection to the west is
advancing slower to the east than the elements are moving N/NE.
They could also receive more than one thunderstorm this
evening/early tonight. Felt the threat was much higher than FFG
may reflect there with most of the water not accounted for in
the guidance. Plus, we are solidly in the SLGT risk of excessive
rain per WPC guidance.

The southeastern counties got some heavy rain and patchy
flooding two days ago, and they are starting to pick up some
rain now. There is some thunder embedded in the stuff moving up
from MD/VA. HRRR paints a few stripes of >1" rain in convection
there. The Front and associated thunder/heavy rain does not
arrive until late tonight, and we are always wary of overnight
convection. The deep 60+KT LLJet is loaded with moisture. 1 hr
FFG ranges between one inch and two inches. We will also have to
watch out for the Swatara Creek which is running high and is
arguably the wettest basin around the state right now.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for PAZ004-005-010.
Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for PAZ036-056>059-
063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Ceru/RXR
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1128 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

PAZ012-018-019-026>028-035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-160330-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
1128 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...TORNADO WATCH 69 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may lead to isolated instances of
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty winds may approach 50 MPH on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-160330-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
1128 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 69 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty winds may approach 50 MPH on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-011-017-024-025-033-034-160330-
Potter-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-
1128 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gusty winds may approach 50 MPH on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-010-160330-
Warren-McKean-Elk-
1128 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1046 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STARBRICK               41.84N  79.21W
04/14/2019                   WARREN             PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE AT INTERSECTION OF PRESTON RD AND
            RTE 6. DAMAGE TO BUILDING AND SHIPPING CONTAINER.
            TORNADO POSSIBLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901179

JRB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1104 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SOMERSET                40.01N  79.08W
04/14/2019                   SOMERSET           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY INCLUDING ONE ON
            ROUTE 30 AND ONE ON A RESIDENCE IN CAIRNBROOK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901181

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1108 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOSWELL                 40.16N  79.03W
04/14/2019                   SOMERSET           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901182

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1111 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

PAZ006-012-018-037-041-042-046-150445-
Southern Lycoming PA-Potter PA-Sullivan PA-Northern Centre PA-
Northern Clinton PA-Northern Lycoming PA-Tioga PA-
1111 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LYCOMING...POTTER...
SULLIVAN...TIOGA...AND CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM EDT...

At 1111 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Wharton to 7 miles northwest of Karthaus.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Keating, Morris, Blossburg, Renovo, Covington, South Renovo, Arnot,
Cross Fork, Glen Union, Kettle Creek Gorge, Waterville, Ralston,
Tamarack, Kettle Creek State Park, Cedar Run, Cammal, Ole Bull State
Park, Trout Run, Barbours and Shunk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 7688 4158 7670 4135 7666 4116 7804
      4120 7808 4137 7799 4144 7799 4157 7794
      4178 7690
TIME...MOT...LOC 0311Z 256DEG 29KT 4149 7808 4121 7819

Ceru

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1130 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CAIRNBROOK              40.12N  78.82W
04/14/2019                   SOMERSET           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY INCLUDING ONE ON
            ROUTE 30 AND ONE ON A RESIDENCE IN CAIRNBROOK.

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...LOCATION...FATALITIES...INJURIES

EVENT NUMBER CTP1901181

JRB