Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
156 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving trough will move east across the region through
Wednesday. Another trough will swing across the area on Thursday
with a cold front settling south Thursday night. High pressure will
build over the region on Friday and remain through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1 pm update...not a whole lot of changes...scattered
thunderstorms continue to impact much of the area with strong
winds associated with the storms. Otherwise...forecast looks on
track.

Previous discussion...
Regional radars show a decaying MCS moving south across Illinois
while a few showers and considerable cloud cover remain over lower
Michigan. This activity is ongoing ahead of a shortwave trough
moving through the flow aloft and broad trough at the surface
extending from Hudson Bay. As this shortwave continues east today,
re-development is expected to occur. A few showers can already be
seen developing across Northwest Ohio and are expected to expand in
the vicinity of the Lake Breeze across Northeast Ohio into Northwest
Pennsylvania. Some sun is expected before the cirrus shield thickens
allowing ML CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg to develop. Deeper
moisture and better forcing will arrive from the west by mid-
afternoon bringing an expansion of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into tonight. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to be fairly high and most areas can expect to see rain
later today into tonight. Went above guidance for highs at location
along and east of I-77 corridor where it will take longer for clouds
to thicken. Thunderstorms today will produce locally heavy rain and
the Storm Prediction Center has included the area in a marginal risk
for severe weather. Deep layer sheer will generally be on the order
of 15-25 knots but upper level support may support a few stronger
storms this afternoon/evening.

Another shortwave is expected to round the base of the upper trough
overnight and take on a slight negative tilt across western New
York/Pennsylvania on Wednesday. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday afternoon across the eastern
half of the forecast area. Temperatures will drop back 5 degrees or
more from today's highs across eastern areas on Wednesday where
thunderstorms develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Thursday with models showing an upper low over
Ontario and a trough digging southeast into the Great Lakes region.
An upper ridge will be over the Southern Plains. At the surface, a
cold front will be just to our northwest and is expected to move
through the region during the afternoon. Will have high chance and
likely pops for showers and thunderstorms.  Best chance southeast
given timing of the front. Friday the upper low moves ese to James
Bay involving much of Ontario and Quebec. Models show building high
pressure and drier, post cold front air across the region. During
the afternoon however a short wave will drop southeast across the
eastern lakes and possibly bringing enough moisture to combine with
lake instability with cool air aloft to create showers off the lake.
 Will have low chance pops for the traditional snow belt areas. Will
continue the threat into Friday night before drying out for Saturday
as the high moves overhead. Highs Thursday in the lower 80s.  Friday
and Saturday will be mostly in the mid and upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models differ significantly through the long term and for now will
stick close to blended guidance and persistence which favor the
drier ECMWF. Will have pops no greater than slight chance through
the period with partly cloudy skies.  Highs will be in the lower
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Scattered thunderstorms will impact most terminals through the
20z to 23z time frame. If thunderstorms do occur...expect brief
reductions in visibility and gusty winds. Otherwise...much of
the shower activity should be over by 06z.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in thunderstorms on Wednesday
afternoon/evening in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Today expect mainly southwest flow at 5 to 10 knots ahead of an
approaching cold front moving through the central lakes. The cold
front will drop across the lake Wednesday.  Winds will remain fairly
light however and do not expect any headlines. Thursday however a
stronger cold front will cross the lake.  Current guidance suggests
15 to 20 knots from the west turning wnw in the afternoon with
highest winds central and east.  Current model forecasts for waves
suggests winds and waves will remain below small craft levels but am
thinking the east half will see four foot waves for a period of time
through the afternoon.  Thursday night through Saturday expect
mainly northwest flow with building high pressure from the west.
Winds Friday, especially east could be enough for 3-4 foot waves
through the afternoon but otherwise, winds and waves will diminish
as high pressure moves overhead.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...Riley/Saunders
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Griffin/TK
AVIATION...Riley
MARINE...Griffin/TK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
940 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-071345-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
940 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will expand across the area today. A few
of the strongest thunderstorms may produce wind gusts to 50 mph or
hail to the size of a penny. Thunderstorms will be most likely
between 12 PM and 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front on
Thursday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will possible along
with locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-071345-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
940 AM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a cold front on
Thursday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will possible along
with locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1247 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE SANDUSKY SOUTH    41.40N 82.67W
08/06/2019                   ERIE               OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 2.

&&

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
135 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

OHZ009-019-061815-
Huron-Erie-
135 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HURON AND ERIE
COUNTIES...

At 134 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Sandusky to near New Washington.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sandusky, Norwalk, Western Vermilion, Willard, New London, Plymouth,
Northern Milan, Milan, Wakeman, Greenwich, Monroeville, Berlin
Heights, North Fairfield, Bloomingville, Sandusky South, Birmingham
and Fairview Lanes.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4100 8282 4143 8271 4146 8267 4145 8266
      4144 8266 4138 8252 4138 8248 4143 8235
      4107 8234 4106 8244 4099 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 233DEG 27KT 4140 8266 4094 8278

Saunders

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
208 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FOSTORIA                41.16N 83.41W
08/06/2019                   SENECA             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
228 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     FLOOD            2 ESE LAKEWOOD          41.48N 81.77W
08/06/2019                   CUYAHOGA           OH   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FLOODING OVER ROADWAY UNDER RTA BRIDGE ON
            WEST 117TH STREET.

&&

RC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
237 PM EDT TUE AUG 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEPPER PIKE             41.48N 81.46W
08/06/2019                   CUYAHOGA           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT PEPPER PIKE.

&&

RC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
247 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

OHZ010-011-020-021-029>031-062015-
Summit-Richland-Medina-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Ashland-Wayne-
247 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
RICHLAND...CUYAHOGA...MEDINA...ASHLAND...SUMMIT...WAYNE AND LORAIN
COUNTIES...

At 247 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Lorain to near Hayesville. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Akron, Lorain, Elyria, Medina, Wooster, Ashland, Parma,
Lakewood, Cuyahoga Falls, Euclid, Cleveland Heights, Strongsville,
Brunswick, Westlake, North Royalton, North Ridgeville, Kent,
Barberton and Green.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4064 8243 4143 8227 4152 8202 4148 8189
      4150 8171 4163 8149 4157 8148 4156 8139
      4145 8139 4144 8137 4142 8139 4099 8139
      4098 8142 4091 8142 4091 8165 4068 8168
      4067 8222 4065 8222
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 231DEG 27KT 4143 8221 4077 8234

Saunders