Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
442 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain west to east across the region
over the next several days. A series of weak troughs will move
along the front bringing on and off chances for storms through
the middle of this week. The front will move southeast through
the area Wednesday night. A cooler and drier weather pattern
will follow for the end of the week as high pressure builds
across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Convection beginning to impact the area this afternoon, a few
hours ahead of schedule as noted in the previous discussion. The
environment remains a bit marginal, with the better storms west
near a corridor of good mid level lapse rates and effective bulk
shear values of 30-35 kts. More storms continue to fire off an
outflow boundary across northeast Ohio. Shear will be increasing
a bit into this evening, although it remains to be seen if this
convection will work over the moderate instability across the
area this afternoon. Even more uncertainty lies with upstream
convection potentially developing and moving into the area after
00Z, as the bulk of the hi-res guidance suggests. Have hedged
with lingering chance pops through the evening into the
overnight. Any precip will quickly diminish after midnight.

The synoptic cold front will settle south into the area on
Monday. Depending on the amount of destabilization south of the
boundary, more showers and a few storms may develop as the day
progresses. Right now, have slight chance pops moving to chance
pops during the afternoon across portions of the area. The front
will remain anchored across the northern part of the area
Monday night, with pops generally diminishing through the night
with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The synoptic boundary will linger over the northern part of the
area Tuesday into Wednesday. This may promote diurnally induced
convection Tuesday and again Wednesday, with better, more
organized convection limited to any upstream MCS activity that
may sneak into the area. Have held with chance pops for now. A
stronger shortwave will move through the area Wednesday into
Wednesday night, which will push the front south through the
area, bringing a demise to local precipitation chances Wednesday
night. Above normal temps and humid conditions will persist
until the front moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A quiet, cooler pattern emerges by Thursday as high pressure
drifts east across the Great Lakes region. Seasonably cooler
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s Thursday and Friday will
recover into the low/mid 80s by the end of the weekend. Dry
conditions will prevail until at least Sunday, as some moisture
return into the area may bring scattered shower/thunderstorm
activity on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Low confidence TAF with respect to TSRA potential this evening.
Aside from TSRA near KTOL at the onset of the period, best
chances for TSRA will be between 00Z and 05Z from west to east
across the area this evening. Given low confidence in model
solutions, have only mentioned TSRA in PROB30/TEMPO until
development becomes clearer. Outside of TSRA, mainly VFR
conditions expected, although some lowering ceilings to MVFR
possible at the end of the period as a cold front sinks south
into the area. Some gusts to 20 kts are possible this afternoon
out of the southwest. Winds will remain south to southwest,
becoming more west/northwest as the cold front moves through at
the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Intervals of non-VFR possible primarily with
thunderstorms possible Monday and again on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A relatively quiet period on the lake this week, as a frontal
boundary will meander near the lake through Wednesday. This will
keep winds variable over the lake through Wednesday until a cold
front pushes south of the lake. This will bring northerly winds
to the lake until the end of the week as high pressure drifts
across the region. Winds will swing around to the south as the
high pushes into New England this weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Greenawalt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
448 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

LEZ142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-192100-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
448 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

LEZ061-192100-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
448 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
635 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     HAIL             2 W MOGADORE            41.06N 81.44W
08/18/2019  M1.00 INCH       SUMMIT             OH   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

DK

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