Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Cleveland, OH

688 
WWUS51 KCLE 182036
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
436 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

OHC063-173-182045-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0185.000000T0000Z-190818T2115Z/
Wood OH-Hancock OH-
436 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WOOD AND NORTHERN HANCOCK
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is 
still possible with these thunderstorms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch 
remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for northwestern Ohio.

LAT...LON 4141 8388 4144 8379 4147 8376 4146 8375
      4149 8371 4153 8370 4154 8342 4100 8342
      4099 8346 4102 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 276DEG 29KT 4140 8342 4109 8372 

$$

Jamison

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
212 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
At the surface a stationary boundary located just north of the
lake will linger near the area over the next several days. A
series of weak troughs will move along this feature bringing on
and off chances for storms through the middle of this week. A
cooler and drier weather pattern will follow for the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Continued low confidence forecast this afternoon through this
evening, with the bulk of the hi-res guidance struggling to
handle the convection this morning into this afternoon. An
unmodeled cluster of storms currently near the Toledo metro area
is the only weather of consequence locally early this afternoon.
The bulk of the guidance continues to favor aggressive
development ahead of a cold front along a prefrontal trough late
this afternoon. Although much of the guidance is in fair
agreement on the overall timing/placement of the convection,
here is already some development occurring across western
Indiana, which is a few hours faster than guidance would
indicate. If convection does fire sooner/farther east, then
confidence would increase on a broken line moving into the
western part of the area early this evening. Current timing of
the models would put the convection into the area after 8 PM
through midnight, and would be in a weakening trend. Current
forecast hedges somewhat between the model timing and current
observational trends, which would put the western part of the
area under severe potential generally after 5-6 PM. Precip
chances will diminish from west to east after midnight as the
trough moves east of the area.

The synoptic cold front will settle south into the area on
Monday. Depending on the amount of destabilization south of the
boundary, more showers and a few storms may develop as the day
progresses. Right now, have slight chance pops moving to chance
pops during the afternoon across portions of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface cold front will make little progress southeast through
our forecast area and slow down to a east-west oriented stationary
front somewhere over our forecast area on Tuesday. The airmass south
of the boundary will be favorable for thunderstorms, with dew point
in the low 70s and temperatures expected to rise to the mid to upper
80s. MUCAPE will be around 2000 to 3000 J/kg. Wind shear is not
expected to be very high, with only 15 to 25 knots of deep layer
shear present on Tuesday. Am expecting disorganized convection to
develop along and south of the stationary front with minor threats
of severe weather and flooding if there is training of convection.
Following Tuesday's convection, the stationary front is expected to
lift north as a warm front as low pressure develops over the Midwest
on Tuesday and propagates northeast across the Great Lakes and into
Ontario by 12Z Wednesday. There will be potential for severe weather
on Wednesday but it depends a lot on the timing of the cold front.
Deep layer shear of 30 to 35 knots will allow for more organized
convection to develop and if the cold front moves through our area
in the evening, then there is potential for severe weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will slowly build in from the northwest on Thursday
and will be situated over our area on Friday. The airmass will be
characterized by cooler and drier conditions with high temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s and dew points in the upper 50s. High
pressure will move on to our east on Saturday, which will induce
warm southerly advection, though still keeping the drier air intact.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Low confidence TAF with respect to TSRA potential this evening.
Aside from TSRA near KTOL at the onset of the period, best
chances for TSRA will be between 00Z and 05Z from west to east
across the area this evening. Given low confidence in model
solutions, have only mentioned TSRA in PROB30/TEMPO until
development becomes clearer. Outside of TSRA, mainly VFR
conditions expected, although some lowering ceilings to MVFR
possible at the end of the period as a cold front sinks south
into the area. Some gusts to 20 kts are possible this afternoon
out of the southwest. Winds will remain south to southwest,
becoming more west/northwest as the cold front moves through at
the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Intervals of non-VFR possible primarily with
thunderstorms possible Monday and again on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally west to southwest flow will persist over the lake through
Monday morning with 5 to 10 knot winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots
by Sunday evening. A cold front will move southeast across the lake
on Monday afternoon, slowing down and becoming a west-east oriented
stationary front just south of the lake Monday night into Tuesday.
This will cause westerly winds on Monday morning to veer to easterly
winds by Tuesday morning. Easterly winds are only expected to be
around 5 knots or so through Tuesday. This stationary front will
lift as a warm front Tuesday night, causing winds to veer to
southerly Wednesday night and then to southwesterly by Wednesday
morning. Another cold front is expected to move east across the lake
on Wednesday afternoon, causing winds to veer more to the north by
Wednesday night. Right now our forecast calls for 10 to 15 knots of
northerly winds on Wednesday night through Thursday. However, with a
warm lake and cold air advection, there's a good chance winds could
overperform and thus result in higher waves. Wave heights will near
Small Crafty Advisory criteria Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Saunders

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
355 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-190800-
Lake Erie open waters from Ripley to Buffalo NY-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Lake Erie open waters from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Lake Erie open waters from The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Willowick to Geneva-on-the-Lake OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Lake Erie open waters from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-Lucas-Wood-
Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
355 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon
and evening across northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. The
best potential for severe weather will be across far northwest Ohio
between 2 pm and 7 pm this afternoon. Large hail up to quarter size
and damaging wind gusts up to 65 mph will be the main threats. An
isolated tornado threat can't be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
118 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 N FAIRPORT HARBOR     41.76N 81.27W
08/18/2019  M39 MPH          LEZ147             OH   OTHER FEDERAL

            CORRECTS EVENT TYPE FOR PREVIOUS TSTM WND
            GST REPORT FROM 1 N FAIRPORT HARBOR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
119 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0756 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NE AVONIA             42.08N 80.24W
08/18/2019  M41 MPH          LEZ149             PA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            CORRECTS EVENT TYPE FOR PREVIOUS TSTM WND
            GST REPORT FROM 3 NE AVONIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
136 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W TIFFIN              41.12N 83.26W
08/18/2019                   SENECA             OH   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ACROSS WIRES. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
            RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
222 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0218 PM     HAIL             1 E HOLLAND             41.62N 83.69W
08/18/2019  E1.00 INCH       LUCAS              OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 N LORAIN              41.47N 82.19W
08/18/2019  M46 MPH          LEZ145             OH   C-MAN STATION

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
348 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

OHZ003-006-182015-
Wood-Lucas-
348 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WOOD AND SOUTHWESTERN
LUCAS COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR...

At 344 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Weston in
Henry County, or 10 miles west of Bowling Green. These storms are
moving east around 25 mph. Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size
hail are possible with these storms. These storms will move east
into Wood and southern Lucas County over the next half hour. These
storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations
and available television stations for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northwestern Ohio.

Locations impacted include... Bowling Green, Fostoria,
Swanton, Perrysburg, Rossford, Waterville, Northwood, Whitehouse,
North Baltimore, Holland, Weston, Maumee, Walbridge, Pemberville,
Millbury, Haskins, Luckey, Bradner and Grand Rapids.

LAT...LON 4160 8388 4162 8342 4117 8342 4117 8388
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 180DEG 0KT 4139 8384

Jamison