Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
359 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the coast tonight then remain
anchored offshore through late week while a surface trough
lingers over Georgia and the Carolinas. A series of upper level
disturbances are expected to result in periods of unsettled
weather this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
This evening: Radar imagery late this afternoon depicted several
thunderstorm clusters, mainly across our interior zones. SPC
mesoanalysis continues to show MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg,
DCAPEs over 1000 J/kg, and 0-6 km shear of 30-35 knots. These
parameters have been supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms.
The threat for additional severe storms will continue for the
next few hours, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in
effect until 8 PM for all counties. The main hazards are
damaging wind gusts and large hail. In addition, PWATs of 1.60
inches and weak storm motions could result in heavy downpours
and possibly some localized ponding on roadways.

Tonight: High pressure north of the area will shift offshore.
Any lingering convection will largely diminish with loss of
heating after sunset. The remainder of the night should be
mostly dry, although it is worth noting that a couple models
indicate isolated showers late within low level convergence
along the coast. Have opted to keep PoPs below 20%. Temperatures
will be fairly mild, with lows mainly in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday: Sfc high pressure will slide offshore,
becoming centered over the western Atlantic while weak low pressure
lingers across the Southeast. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will
extend across the area initially, but should gradually trend weaker
as a series of h5 shortwaves round its northern periphery and toward
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts. Given the pattern, conditions
should follow more of a summerlike scenario with late morning and
afternoon convection that increases in coverage during peak diurnal
heating each day. PWATs up to 2.0 inches along with weak wind fields
suggest some thunderstorms capable of producing at least moderate
rains locally. Although the severe weather risk remains low, a fair
amount of instability and forcing associated with h5 shortwave
energy and seabreeze circulations supports a few pulse like
thunderstorms capable of being strong with heavy rain and gusty
winds. High temps should remain a few degrees above normal, peaking
in the mid/upper 80s near the coast and lower 90s inland. Overnight
lows should remain mild, ranging in the low/mid 70s.

Friday: Most guidance holds a backdoor cold front to the north of
the area to start off this weekend, but a light southerly flow south
of this front and well ahead of an approaching low pressure system
to the west will likely contribute to deeper moisture lvls over the
Southeast. Overall confidence remains low in regards to how much
precip occurs across the area, but areas well inland should see a
greater chance of showers and thunderstorms during peak heating.
Numerous showers and thunderstorms remain in forecast, mainly along
and west of the I-95 corridor. High temps should be limited a degree
or two due to greater shower/thunderstorm coverage and clouds. In
general, highs should peak in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Confidence remains good that periods of unsettled weather will
develop over the weekend and continue into early next week as
upper troughing and deep moisture prevail. Occasional convective
rains are expected during this period. Showers and tstms may
become numerous at times during the peak diurnal period with
brief heavy rains. Global models lack agreement on the
strength/alignment of the upper trough and we still cap rain
chances at 50-60 percent during daytime periods. Temps are
expected to be near climo during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR through 18z Wednesday. Brief flight restrictions
possible within afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Have kept
VCTS for now, and will amend if necessary based on latest radar
trends. Otherwise, gusty southeast/east winds will subside after
sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible
due to afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day.
Greatest chances of flight restrictions should occur this
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Surface high pressure to the north will shift into the
Atlantic, allowing east/southeast flow to become more southerly
with time. Elevated speeds of 15 to 20 knots this evening should
decrease overnight, with 10 to 15 knots by daybreak. Seas
generally 2 to 4 feet. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible this evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for
the nearshore coastal waters, including the CHS Harbor, until 8
PM.

Wednesday through Saturday: A southerly component should prevail mid
to late week as the waters remain along the western edge of high
pressure becoming centered over the western Atlantic. Winds will
mainly remain 15 kt or less with seas no higher than 2-3 ft. The
gradient could strengthen over the weekend as low pressure moves
into the Mississippi Valley region, however models differ on the
surface pattern during this time period. It appears convection will
eventually become more common over the waters beyond late week as
deep moisture increases and diurnal convergence strengthens.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another round of shallow coastal flooding is expected with the
evening high tide. Onshore and elevated easterly to southeasterly
flow will help keep tidal departures running high. The
astronomical high tide in CHS Harbor is 6.40 ft MLLW, so we
would only need a 0.6 ft departure to reach shallow coastal
flooding thresholds. Based on latest trends, this level should
easily be exceeded and could even reach near moderate flood
levels. We are expecting the tidal peak to be between 7.3 and
7.6 ft. At Ft Pulaski, the astronomical high tide is around 8.3,
so we would need a little less than a foot departure to reach
the minor flooding threshold of 9.2 ft. Our current forecast
shows the tide peaking between 9.2 and 9.5 ft. Thus, we have
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the entire coast from 8 PM
to midnight.

The combination of astronomical influences on onshore winds
will lead to elevated tides. Minor coastal flooding will be
possible with the evening high tides through at least Wednesday,
mainly for the SC coast.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WFO Charleston SC will only conduct upper-air soundings at 12Z
until further notice due to a shortage of helium.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT
     tonight for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330.

&&

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB/ETM
MARINE...DPB/ETM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-051745-
Coastal Bryan-Coastal Chatham-Coastal Liberty-Coastal McIntosh-
Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

  Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Coastal Flooding: Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected to
occur with the evening high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory will be
needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding will be possible with the
evening high tides through at least Wednesday. Coastal Flood
Advisories could be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042>045-047-052-
051745-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Inland Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Tidal Berkeley-
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-051745-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ374-051745-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
355 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

GAZ137-140-141-042030-
Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-Long-
355 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND LONG
COUNTIES...

At 354 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Doctortown to
near Everett, and moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Darien, Tibet, Townsend, Cox, Ridgeville, Carnigan and Eulonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3129 8142 3133 8144 3135 8152 3143 8161
      3145 8162 3147 8161 3150 8165 3154 8166
      3155 8169 3158 8170 3160 8173 3169 8165
      3157 8144 3130 8135 3129 8136 3130 8137
      3129 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 282DEG 30KT 3165 8178 3134 8161

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
359 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

SCZ043-044-050-042030-
Charleston-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-
359 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON...COLLETON
AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 359 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Cottageville, or 10 miles south of Givhans
Ferry State Park, moving south at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Cottageville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes suddenly, sometimes
with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly changing weather
conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe weather is observed
or a warning is issued.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8047 3293 8035 3278 8036 3280 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 013DEG 12KT 3289 8042

MTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E COTTAGEVILLE        32.93N  80.41W
06/04/2019                   COLLETON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT COTTAGEVILLE HWY AND CAMP BUDDY RD. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1900370

RJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EDT TUE JUN 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             2 SSW PORTAL            32.51N  81.95W
06/04/2019  E1.50 INCH       BULLOCH            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL THE SIZE OF PING PONG
            BALLS ALONG METTER ROAD NEAR THE BANKS DAIRY ROAD
            INTERSECTION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1900371

SPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
413 PM EDT TUE JUN 04 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW PORTAL            32.51N  81.95W
06/04/2019                   BULLOCH            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES AND TREE LIMBS
            BLOWN DOWN ALONG METTER ROAD NEAR THE BANKS DAIRY ROAD
            INTERSECTION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1900372

SPR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
414 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

GAZ137-138-042045-
Inland Liberty-Long-
414 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF LIBERTY AND LONG
COUNTIES...

At 414 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Fort Stewart to
near Ludowici, and moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Hinesville, Ludowici, Fort Stewart, McIntosh, Walthourville,
Riceboro, Flemington and Allenhurst.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3188 8143 3161 8155 3173 8176 3195 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 318DEG 16KT 3191 8164 3174 8170