Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure north of the area will move off the coast today
then remain anchored offshore through late week while a surface
trough lingers over Georgia and the Carolinas. A series of
upper level disturbances are expected to result in periods of
unsettled weather this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will be situated to our north while remnants of a
weak front lingers to the south. Aloft, a shortwave trough will
move overhead out of the northwest flow. Given this upper
forcing and the remnant boundary, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon. There will actually be deep
layer shear present, around 30-35 knots, so some storm
organization is expected. While mid level lapse rates aren't
impressive, SPC mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE values in the
1500-2000 J/kg range with DCAPEs over 1000 J/kg. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch was recently issued and will be in effect
through 8 PM this evening. Main threat would be damaging winds,
although with WBZ heights around 10.5 kft, could not rule out
large hail.

Otherwise, temperatures will be noticeably cooler than the past
several days. Highs will be upper 80s/low 90s away from the
beaches.

Tonight: Convection could linger inland in the evening hours
and rain chances are concentrated across locations closer to the
Midlands. For the latter portion of the night there could be
isolated shower development in the onshore southeasterly flow,
but the forecast is dry for now. Temperatures should fall into
the low 70s in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday: The main surface features will be the
extensive offshore ridge and an inland trough over GA and SC.
Broad mid level ridging will prevail mid week, however models
have been trending toward more erosion of the ridge by weak
short waves ejecting from the lower Gulf Coast region on
Thursday. Moisture looks to gradually deepen this period with
Pwats rising over 2 inches at times. Prospects for mainly
diurnal convection are quite decent both days, however details
will take more time to resolve as models have vast differences
in initiation timing and general coverage. We maintained POPS in
the 30-50 percent range each day and 20-30 percent in the
evenings. Potential for severe weather is a bit uncertain,
probably only marginal given forecast mid levels progs and the
onset of deeper moisture aloft. Temps should run close to climo
values, perhaps a couple degrees on the warm side.

Friday: A backdoor front was handled quite differently by the
GFS and ECMWF on the 00Z model run but confidence was there to
raise POPs to likely inland from I-95 as deep moisture and low
level convergence were pinpointing much of southeast GA during
the afternoon hours. It appears that just about anywhere could
see some downpours during late week as the upper ridge moves
offshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Confidence remains good that periods of unsettled weather will
develop over the weekend and continue into early next week as
upper troughing and deep moisture prevail. Occasional convective
rains are expected during this period. Showers and tstms may
become numerous at times during the peak diurnal period with
brief heavy rains. Global models lack agreement on the
strength/alignment of the upper trough and we still cap rain
chances at 50-60 percent during daytime periods. Temps are
expected to be near climo during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR through 18z Wednesday. Brief flight restrictions
possible within afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Have kept
VCTS for now, and will amend if necessary based on latest radar
trends. Otherwise, gusty southeast/east winds will subside after
sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR. Brief restrictions are
possible due to afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms during
the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Today through Tonight: An enhanced easterly gradient will
feature strengthening onshore flow across the local waters.
East winds will gradually become more southeasterly through the
afternoon. Wind speeds should generally top out in the 15-20
knot range everywhere, with some isolated gusts to around 25
knots at times. At this time, conditions are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory thresholds for the Atlantic coastal
waters. In Charleston Harbor, more frequent gusts to 25 knots
are expected and an advisory is in effect from 11 am through 8
pm. Strong thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until
8 PM for the nearshore coastal waters including CHS Harbor.

The gradient will weaken overnight and southeast winds will
steadily diminish into the 10-15 knot range by sunrise
Wednesday. Seas should stay in the 2-4 ft range.

Wednesday through Saturday: A southerly component should
prevail mid to late week as the waters will be on the return-
side flow of high pressure offshore. Winds will mainly be 15 kt
or less with seas 2 to 3 ft. The gradient may strengthen over
the weekend as low pressure moves into the Mississippi Valley
region, however models differ on the surface pattern during this
time period. It looks convection will eventually become more
common over the waters beyond late week as deep moisture
increases and diurnal convergence strengthens.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another round of shallow coastal flooding is expected with the
evening high tide, and chances are better that this will extend
into the southeast Georgia coast. Onshore and elevated easterly
to southeasterly flow will prevail today which will help keep
tidal departures running high. These wind effects combined with
a higher astronomical high tide lead to increased confidence in
coastal flooding. Our current Total Water Level forecast
features ~7.5 ft in Charleston Harbor and ~9.4 ft at Fort
Pulaski. Moderate coastal flooding is increasingly possible and
a Coastal Flood Advisory will almost certainly be needed.

The combination of astronomical influences on onshore winds
will lead to elevated tides. Minor coastal flooding will be
possible with the evening high tides through at least Wednesday,
mainly for the SC coast.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WFO Charleston SC will only conduct upper-air soundings at 12Z
until further notice due to a shortage of helium.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ330.

&&

NEAR TERM...ETM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-051745-
Coastal Bryan-Coastal Chatham-Coastal Liberty-Coastal McIntosh-
Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

  Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Coastal Flooding: Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected to
occur with the evening high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory will be
needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding will be possible with the
evening high tides through at least Wednesday. Coastal Flood
Advisories could be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-SCZ040-042>045-047-052-
051745-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Inland Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Tidal Berkeley-
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-051745-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 324 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ374-051745-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
144 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

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