Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
106 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper and surface trough will move into the region today and
provide better chances of scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms today and Friday. A surface trough will continue
to support scattered afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend.
An upper-level trough will dig into the eastern US early next
week with a frontal boundary entering the region mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level trough over the Carolinas this afternoon and
overnight as ridge has shifted slightly south of the area.
With strong insolation, relatively steep low to mid level lapse
rates resulting in moderate instability and perhaps strong late
in the afternoon. SB CAPE around 2500 J/kg. Some mid level dry
air noted on soundings and relatively high LFC with inverted V
suggest some potential for strong gusty winds. So can't rule out
an isolated severe pulse storm. With the potential for short
wave energy, enhanced lift may result in stronger potential for
convection. The latest high resolution models develop convection
in the Piedmont and move southeast across the Midlands (likely
scattered) and possibly increase toward the coastal plain.
Precipitable water near 1.89 inches so some heavy rain possible
but storm movement should limit amounts. Max temps in the mid to
upper 90s with heat index around 107 degrees. Muggy tonight
with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will again be in the mid to upper 90s with maximum Heat
Index values from 100 to around 105. Expect scattered thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening.

An upper ridge will be centered north of the forecast area Friday
with a weak inverted trough to our south. At the surface, a lee-side
trough will provide convergence for convective development. PWAT
values will remain high as abundant moisture resides over the
region with values around 2 inches. All these factors support
scattered thunderstorm development and a high chance (40%-50%)
of rain. Rain chances are not as high on Saturday as the upper
trough flattens out with little vorticity advection into the
region. Severe weather potential each day is low given the tall,
skinny CAPE profiles and little dry air aloft to promote strong
downdrafts. With less convective coverage Saturday it may be a
slightly warmer than Friday with fewer thunderstorms to disturb
diurnal heating. Overnight lows will continue to be warmer than
normal with values in the mid 70s each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Late this weekend into early next week, an upper ridge prevails over
the forecast area with PWAT water values dropping to around
1.5-1.8 inches. The presence of a lee-side surface trough will
continue to promote scattered diurnal convection.

Midweek, a deep upper level trough is forecast to dig into the
eastern US. This will push a cold front into the Southeast
before stalling near the forecast area. This will support cooler
daytime temperatures and higher rainfall chances. The highest
convective activity will depend on the location and timing of
the front which will be better known over the next several days.
At this time, rainfall appears likely on Tuesday and Wednesday
for at least portions of the area. The ECMWF has leaned closer
to the GFS towards the end of the extended, keeping the stalled
upper level trough over the eastern US for a longer period of
time. High temperatures will remain above normal Sunday and
Monday with highs in the mid 90s but then fall to near normal
with increased clouds and precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper and surface trough, diurnal heating, and sufficient atmospheric
moisture expected to result in increased convective coverage
this afternoon/evening. High resolution models suggest scattered
coverage. Isolated severe pulse storm possible. Satellite
showing cumulus developing northwest of CAE at 16z with
thunderstorms in north GA moving southeast. Will add tempo
groups to terminals 20-24z. Convection will diminish mid to late
evening with mainly mid level ceilings overnight although there
could be some stratus late. MVFR fog possible at fog prone sites
AGS/OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered afternoon/evening
thunderstorms and some potential for late night/early morning
stratus/fog through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
409 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
190815-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
409 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Very warm temperatures combined with low level moisture will result
in heat indices well over 100 degrees and as high as 107 degrees.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and
evening as an upper disturbance moves into the region. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heat indices over 100 degrees will continue through the weekend.
Isolated severe thunderstorms will also be possible on Friday with
moderate instability and the upper disturbance over the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
409 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S LITTLE MOUNTAIN     34.15N 81.42W
07/18/2019                   LEXINGTON          SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED TREE IN ROADWAY ST. PETERS
            CHURCH ROAD AT STEVENS CREEK ROAD.

&&

DA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
413 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW PROSPERITY         34.24N 81.56W
07/18/2019                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RAILROAD CROSSING ARMS DAMAGED AT COLONY
            CHURCH RD IN THE TOWN OF PROSPERITY IN
            NEWBERRY COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
415 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S NEWBERRY            34.27N 81.61W
07/18/2019                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON GRACE ST IN THE TOWN OF
            PROSPERITY IN NEWBERRY COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
417 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW PROSPERITY         34.23N 81.55W
07/18/2019                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 76 IN FRONT OF
            MCKECHNIE VEHICLE COMPONENTS IN THE TOWN OF
            PROSPERITY IN NEWBERRY COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
421 PM EDT THU JUL 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W PROSPERITY          34.21N 81.54W
07/18/2019                   NEWBERRY           SC   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ALONG WITH MULTIPLE POWER LINES
            DOWN ON BROWN ST IN THE TOWN OF PROSPERITY
            IN NEWBERRY COUNTY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
421 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

SCZ029-031-038-182045-
Clarendon SC-Sumter SC-Lee SC-
421 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northeastern
Clarendon...east central Sumter and southeastern Lee Counties Until
445 PM EDT....

At 421 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Woods Bay State Park, or 14 miles northwest
of Lake City, moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Woods Bay State Park, Turbeville, Shiloh and Gable.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 131 and 146.

LAT...LON 3382 7992 3381 7995 3377 7999 3374 7998
      3371 7999 3393 8023 3407 8003 3404 7999
      3401 7991 3399 7989 3395 7998 3388 7994
      3388 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 297DEG 21KT 3399 7997

LCV